China’s Oil Stockpile Fuels Profit Amid Global Price Surge
In speaking with oil traders (and checking the data) it is clear that China went on a buyer's strike due to the ongoing high crude and LNG prices. Which means that Beijing loaded up its storage with low oil prices of the past 12 months and is now profiting off of the high prices by shipping its onshore supply to the rest of the world. So... uhm yeah. If this was "all about China," I guess it was "all about Making China Great Again." China has plenty of storage to weather a mutli-month disruption in crude exports. Someone should explain this to the US. Either the US is cool with a super painful recession (it clearly is not), or it will have to make a deal with Iran. At which point, China will re-fill its storage with again cheaper crude. Win-Win-Win, as Xi likes to say. "Oh but Marko, it won't have the $6-$9 discount on like 20% of its total imports anymore due to regime calibration in Venezuela and Iran." Yeah. Well done America. Way to solve that critical pillar of Chinese rise. 🤦♂️ (That last bit was sarcasm, if you did not catch it).
Top Market Timing Chart From Legendary
Chart of the Year candidate from the Greek Demi-God of Timing The Markets (who shall name anonymous for compliance reasons but is well known to those in the... know). And if you don't know... now you know. https://t.co/dXexvP2w1l
Propose Competing Ship Tolls to Test US vs Iran
Ok, here is my suggestion to the @WhiteHouse... Create a competing system of "tolls." Ships can pay to Iran or US (or, I guess, both). See whose guarnatees work better. Iran's or the full might of the US Navy. Like...
Blocking Toll‑Paid Ships Could Pressure Iran, Yet Payer Unclear
Technically, blockading ships that have paid the toll to Iran/IRGC IS the correct way to force Tehran to the negotiating table. But how is such a threat implemented? It is unlikely that shipping companies are paying that toll (the importer...
Oil Flows When Iran’s IRGC Gets Paid
A hedge fund client just asked me "what happens to allow flow of oil?" I answered, "The IRGC gets P A I D." It kind of rhymes. Like a rap. 👇 https://t.co/dpCtkPaSTd
Tehran Likely to Negotiate Before Global Recession Hits
I am not sure that is in Tehran's interest to hold out forever. If they usher in a 1970s style global recession, the "gloves are off." They too have an interest in negotiating somewhere within the Area N. As close...
BCA Research Hormuz Crisis Dashboard Now Open to Public
Just a reminder that everyone should check out the BCA Research Hormuz Crisis dashboard, which we have now made available to non-cients. https://t.co/2w3YrSrMuA https://t.co/PRmuyuEG4a
Trump’s Hormuz Remarks Threaten Petrodollar‑reserve Currency Pact
One of the foundations of the US reserve currency status is the 1970s Nixon-KSA agreement that the US provides military protection in return for recycling of Petrodollars into the US bond market. When President Trump says things like that "we...
Trump Claims Joint Control of Hormuz with Iran
This would be an important dynamic, if it were to continue and GROW in size. AND, if the US were to acquiesce to this new arrangement. Then again, President Trump did say that the "me and the ayatollah will jointly"...
Markets Accept Persistent Middle East Conflict If Hormuz Flows
A new geopolitical equilibrium could emerge in the Middle East that includes almost constant kinetic action and YET markets could be OK with that. The 1980 Iran-Iraq war is a good example of that. All that matters is whether ships...
10‑Year Yield Near 4.4% Sparks Epic Week Ahead
The 10-year approaching 4.4% and then we get this "drop" from the president. Another FAFO moment? This coming week will be epic.
US Chooses Between Lifting Iran Sanctions or Invading Kharg
On the one hand, the US is considering lifting sanctions on Iran's oil. On the other, the US e is considering invading Kharg. It's one or the other. Either the US understands the MAD dynamic at play with energy flows...
Considering Adding Insightful Data to Hormuz Crisis Dashboard
I am debating putting this into the BCA Hormuz Crisis dashboard... for the "it's all connected" crowd... Thoughts? https://t.co/d3bt7kTRvZ
Iran May Withhold Capacity to Threaten Hormuz Energy
Either Iran is holding back capacity in order to threaten Hormuz and Gulf energy production... or... https://t.co/JSjToWxeDQ
BCA Research Opens Gulf War Dashboard to Everyone
On a recent Geopolitical Cousins episode I mentioned that BCA Research has opened its Gulf War dashboard to all users, including non-clients. Below is the promised link. Let us know if you'd want us to include some other data here....