Iran’s Alleged Tanker Fees Undermine Claims of Resilience
Lots of pessimists are hanging their hat on Iran being "tough" and "resilient." And yet, there are rumors all over of IRGC essentially letting VLCCs go through... for a fee. Hormuz is either shut or it is not. You're not supposed to make a "buck" in an existential conflict.
US Air Assaults Exceed Iran’s Finite Pain Tolerance
In conversations with clients and friends (also in reading X takes), it seems like folks underestimate how painful it is to withstand unrelenting, unfettered, strategic and punitive attacks from the air by the US. Iran surely has a high pain...
GCC Nations Reopen Civilian Flights Amid Turmoil
Mad love and respect to GCC countries for opening up their civilian air traffic in the midst of all of this. https://t.co/Bl9Wu5d731
Hormuz Strait Will Eventually Open Despite Recession Fears
I know it won't come in time for the global economy to avoid a recession, but the world WILL eventually pry open Hormuz one way or another. Iran won't have this card indefinitely. This is not the White Mountains of...
Current Geopolitical Threats Outpace Ukraine’s Economic Impact
There are perceived geopolitical risks and then REAL ones. Hormuz is Arrakis as far as we are all concerned. Ukraine war in 2022 was never as big of a risk to the global economy as what is now going on....