QCEW Forecasts Significant Payroll Growth Revisions for 2025‑26
The latest QCEW implies that we could be seeing some chunky upward revisions to payroll growth for March 2025-March 2026, says @EconBerger https://t.co/ad1eO07ZIZ
U.S. Job Market Remains Inflationary as Wage Growth Accelerates
New at THE OVERSHOOT: The U.S. Job Market is (Still) Inflationary https://t.co/KpTd2X6fNG Wage growth is now accelerating slightly, supporting the quickening of "supercore" service price increases. Plus: more on the health care wage slowdown mystery. https://t.co/pBeutaTLhh
Data Center Boom Fuels Hidden Growth
New at THE OVERSHOOT: The Growth Impulse from the Data Center Boom https://t.co/Ulx65ri4UI There is much less than meets the eye, although the official numbers may also be undercounting some of what is happening. https://t.co/FT5Yj8tfwM
Swiss Central Bank’s $1T Balance Sheet Fuels Market Power
Interesting article on some of the implications of the Swiss National Bank's massive balance sheet (worth roughly $1 trillion, mostly due to years of FX interventions) https://t.co/fUDrbynA3y
Balancing Economic Scale with Countering Rival Coercion
Thoughtful essay from @edwardfishman on how to "preserve the scale modern economies require while neutralizing the coercive power of rivals such as China and Russia" https://t.co/1cxfvxMWWB
Penalizing Private Firms for “Debanking” Is Just a Fad
Wanting the government to penalize private businesses for rejecting certain customers (aka being worried about "debanking") is itself a fad
New BOK Governor Emphasizes Inflation Control and Financial Stability
Interesting passage from @HyunSongShin's first speech as governor of the Bank of Korea: https://t.co/usPzjCjld0 https://t.co/DePG6zH4MH
U.S. Inflation Stays Hot Despite Hormuz Shock
New at THE OVERSHOOT: "Look Through" the Hormuz Shock if You Want. U.S. Inflation is Still Running Hot. https://t.co/fwWOwt7491 Plus: explaining the CPI-PCE gap https://t.co/0DPKZoAo2y
Predicting Wars Is Inherently Uncertain, Says SevaUT
Excellent essay from @SevaUT about why it is so hard to make predictions about wars: https://t.co/6Mk3B89srS His focus is on Russia-Ukraine, and, to a lesser extent, PRC-Taiwan, but there are obvious implications for analyzing the recent behavior of the U.S. as well...
Car Insurance Premiums No Longer Blamed for Core Inflation
Haven't heard people blaming rising car insurance premiums as the explanation for excessive core inflation in a while
Alcohol Drinks Count in CPI Core, Not PCE Core
Today I learned that alcholic beverages are part of "commodities less food and energy commodities" in the CPI but not in "PCE goods excluding food and energy"
Health Care Wages Diverge as Cyclical Sectors Rise
New at THE OVERSHOOT: Is U.S. Wage Growth Slowing Or Not? https://t.co/uhzQRgCXXi Something strange is happening with wages in health care, while cyclical sectors are looking up. https://t.co/g4hKv2rVBo
Toll on Hormuz Likely Raises Prices, Cuts Exporter Profits
Question for incidence-knowers: If post ante regime is one where ships can transit Hormuz as long as they pay a toll, will the end result be --higher prices for final consumers --lower profits for non-Iranian Gulf exporters --rough mix (any split within 1/3-2/3 of...
Sanctions Keep Russia's War Windfall in Check
New at THE OVERSHOOT: Russia's Iran War Windfall in Perspective https://t.co/YgLaalkQxU As long as financial sanctions and export controls remain in place, the aggressor's gains from higher oil and gas prices will be limited. https://t.co/MWwrDIs9pR
Russia Earmarks Oil Windfall for Welfare Fund, Cuts Spending Reliance
Consider the source, etc, but the official line from Russian govt is that O&G revenue windfall will go straight into rebuilding the (depleted) national welfare fund. And longer-term plan is to reduce role of O&G revenues in day-to-day spending. https://t.co/5QfNPsBYtV