Recent Posts
Social•Feb 18, 2026
AI Won’t Kill SaaS; Governance Still Essential
Narratives can crush multiples faster than fundamentals change. Markets are pricing “software is dead” as if AI will commoditize SaaS overnight. But enterprises still need governance, permissioning, audit trails, compliance, uptime, and data orchestration. AI may change workflows, but it doesn’t erase control layers.
By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Social•Feb 18, 2026
Software Stocks Face Fear‑Driven Selloff, Not Real Decline
Software is getting hit on fear of substitution more than evidence of structural deterioration in enterprise spending. When price action gets ahead of reality, the re-rating can be violent if the narrative cools.
By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Falling Rates Could Quickly Revive Builder Margins
Sales are weak. Inventory is tight. Builder sentiment is soft. If rates fall, incentives drop — and margins can snap back fast. The setup in homebuilders isn’t getting enough attention. Read more: https://t.co/AJREG4myee
By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Social•Feb 16, 2026
Dalio's Stage 6: 5 Stocks for the New World Order
Ray Dalio says the world order has broken down. His “Stage 6” post went viral on X. What does that mean for markets? I mapped his framework to 5 stocks positioned for trade wars, tech controls, rearmament, energy shocks & gold. Here’s the playbook: https://t.co/FrP3YuOJA9
By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Social•Feb 15, 2026
US Employment Costs Rise 0.7%, Lowest Since 2021
US employment costs rose 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, just under forecasts of 0.8%, and the lowest level since Q2 2021.
By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Social•Feb 14, 2026
Disinflation Relief Meets Market Disruption Fear
CPI cools to 2.4%. Yields fall 18bps. S&P 500 posts its worst week since November. If inflation is easing… why aren’t stocks cheering? The market isn’t repricing rates. It’s repricing disruption. Disinflation Relief, Disruption Fear 👇 https://t.co/JM3yRs0tFM
By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Capital Shifts to Value: Cash Flow Beats Future Promises
Leadership didn’t vanish; it rotated. Capital moved from high-growth tech into value, dividends, and economically sensitive sectors. When rates stay higher and scrutiny rises, cash flow today beats promises tomorrow. Style matters again.
By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Market Rally Likely False Amid Risk‑off Sentiment
I believe this is a false rally. Look at Utilities. That's defensive positioning. Same with long duration Treasuries. We remain in a risk-off condition for now.
By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Social•Feb 13, 2026
SaaS Still Thriving: Mispriced Narrative, Not Collapse
“Software is dead.” That’s the narrative. Revenue isn’t collapsing. Balance sheets aren’t broken. The Fed isn’t tightening. AI disruption… or mispricing? The setup in large-cap SaaS may be asymmetric. Read: https://t.co/dhUDCqMzbs
By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Markets Trade Transition as Central Banks Hold Steady
Pauses aren’t pivots. Central banks are holding steady, but easing remains conditional. Inflation is cooler, labor is softer, yet not weak enough to confirm a recession. Markets are trading the transition, not the destination.
By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Labor Holds, Inflation Cools, Yen Soars Amid Crosscurrents
Resilient labor. Cooling inflation. Duration rallying. Yen surging. 130K jobs. CPI at 2.4%. 10Y yields sliding. Dollar down on the week. This isn’t a clean cycle — it’s macro crosscurrents. Full breakdown: https://t.co/vNAZw80IbE
By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Social•Feb 13, 2026
Value, Cyclicals, Small Caps Overtake Mega‑Cap Growth
Indexes look stable, but leadership is shifting. Value, cyclicals, and small caps are quietly taking the baton from mega-cap growth. This isn’t speculation; it’s a broadening market demanding cash flow and balance-sheet strength.
By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Social•Feb 12, 2026
Gold Surge Signals Capital Shift, Not Risk‑On Rally
Record gold prices + a weakening dollar don’t scream “risk-on.” They signal global capital reallocation and rising demand for insurance amid lingering policy uncertainty. Hedging behavior is increasing even as equities grind higher.
By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)