Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)

Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)

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Portfolio manager and macro strategist discussing macro cycles, risk signals, and equity implications for U.S. markets.

GraniteShares Announces New Weekly Yields for 31 ETFs
SocialMay 28, 2026

GraniteShares Announces New Weekly Yields for 31 ETFs

GraniteShares just dropped new weekly distribution rates across 31 YieldBOOST ETFs: COYY, TSYY, NVYY, XBTY, AMYY and more. Record date 5/29, payment 6/3. https://t.co/g291PyDd9P @GraniteShares @WillRhind

By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Bond Market Sends Mixed Signals on the Economy
SocialMay 17, 2026

Bond Market Sends Mixed Signals on the Economy

Thread starter: the bond market is telling two stories. Story 1 — 10Y yield at 4.59% says monetary policy is restrictive and term premium is back. Story 2 — HY credit OAS at 276 bps says default risk is muted...

By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Tight Treasury Yields and Credit Spreads Signal Imminent Break
SocialMay 17, 2026

Tight Treasury Yields and Credit Spreads Signal Imminent Break

Here's the contradiction nobody's discussing — 10-year Treasury yields sit at 4.59%, above the long-term average of 4.25%. That signals tight monetary policy or term premium expansion. At the same time high-yield credit spreads are at 276 basis points, near...

By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
10Y Yield
SocialMay 17, 2026

10Y Yield

10Y at 4.59% above long-term avg of 4.25%. HY spreads at 276 bps tight to history. Bond market priced for perfection on both sides of the curve.

By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Term Premium Surge Quietly Drives 30-Year Yield Spike
SocialMay 16, 2026

Term Premium Surge Quietly Drives 30-Year Yield Spike

10-year Treasury yield April 24: 4.31%. May 14: 4.47%. Sixteen basis points in three weeks. VIX over the same window: 16.89 to 17.26. Equity vol thinks nothing happened. Bond vol disagrees. The 30-year is back at 2007 levels per AP. That...

By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Yen Surge Triggers Global Panic and Reverse Carry Trade
SocialMay 12, 2026

Yen Surge Triggers Global Panic and Reverse Carry Trade

After the rest of the world panics on the surging Yen forcing the reverse carry trade.

By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Short‑term Bullish, Risk‑on Signals Ignored by Clueless Critics
SocialMay 11, 2026

Short‑term Bullish, Risk‑on Signals Ignored by Clueless Critics

Heads up - actually been bullish, over a short time period, and the signals are all risk-on and purely quantitative. Bunch of clowns not understanding time frame or even reading the research.

By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
All Intermarket Signals Flip to Risk‑On Offense
SocialMay 11, 2026

All Intermarket Signals Flip to Risk‑On Offense

Every intermarket signal just flipped to offense. Beta rotation. Treasury rotation. Lumber/Gold. 200-day MA. Four-for-four Risk-On. First time in months. The tape is screaming. Most won't hear it until it's too late. https://t.co/nXkY0soua2

By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
AI Infrastructure Stocks Poised for Return Cycle
SocialMay 10, 2026

AI Infrastructure Stocks Poised for Return Cycle

AI Infrastructure Stocks: Riding the Cycle of Returns @ckaiwu AI #StockMarket #SP500 #NVDA #TechStocks #Tesla

By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Yen Surge Could Trigger Oil Price Crash
SocialMay 10, 2026

Yen Surge Could Trigger Oil Price Crash

Japan's Yen Surge: The Oil Shock Threat Explained. We explore the real risk of a 'tail event' from Japan, focusing on a potential Yen surge and its devastating impact on oil prices. Discover the economic domino effect. TailEvent #YenSurge #JapanEconomy...

By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
AI Fuels Utility Boom, Grid Becomes New Gold
SocialMay 10, 2026

AI Fuels Utility Boom, Grid Becomes New Gold

Utilities used to be boring. Then AI needed power. UTG: $3.98B fund. $0.20/month distribution. +43.86% NAV return in 12 months. The grid is the new gold. https://t.co/Ig0jni3apV

By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Reverse Carry Trade Starts, Yen Rescue Underway
SocialMay 9, 2026

Reverse Carry Trade Starts, Yen Rescue Underway

I'm right. They are preparing to save the Yen. I'm fucking right. Phase 1 of the reverse carry trade HAS begun. Like and repost if you fucking understand this.

By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Use a 351 Exchange to Tax‑Defer NVDA Holdings
SocialMay 5, 2026

Use a 351 Exchange to Tax‑Defer NVDA Holdings

Your client has $2M in NVDA they won't sell. "The taxes will kill me." Most advisors stop there. The 351 Exchange breaks the trap. Tax-deferred. ETF-based. Liquid day one. https://t.co/0ev7Bt8ru8

By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
You’re Not Lost—Keep Fighting, Your Time Arrives
SocialMay 5, 2026

You’re Not Lost—Keep Fighting, Your Time Arrives

Enough. You are not lost. You are not weak. What you feel is not who you are. It’s the devil trying to break you. Do not give up. Your time is coming. Do not relent. Goodnight.

By Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report)
Michael A. Gayed, CFA (Lead-Lag Report) | Pulse