AI Hype Inflates Multiples, but Narratives Drive Price
Freee could easily have traded up to 5x EV/Sales on the expectation that its new AI powered features would bring in greater revenues. No-one would have batted an eye. But narratives follow price.
Resist AI's Default Consensus Narrative
You have to actively combat this tendency of gen AI tools to give you the consensus view
Claude's Leap: 4.6 Outshines 4.5 Dramatically
Blown away by Claude. A lot must have happened between Opus 4.5 and 4.6. https://t.co/ps1sICVFnH
Dual‑Perspective Stock Analysis Prompt for Balanced Investing
Try this prompt to help you see two sides of every story: "Act as an institutional-grade equity analyst. Perform a deep-dive, adversarial analysis of [Insert Stock Name/Ticker] using the following structure: 1. The Bull Case The Moat: Define the specific competitive advantage (e.g.,...
No Links, Huge Engagement: Small Account Outperforms NYT
“The engagement-maxxing account Globe Eye News never linked out in the tweets in my sample and saw massive engagement: A median 8,418 engagements per tweet. NYT, with a following more than 53 times larger, had a median 383 engagements per...
Users Will Pay $40/Month for Extended Keyword Tracking
I'd pay $40/month to view Twitter keyword mentions over a longer time frame. Missed opportunity https://t.co/vjieqDnYe9
Samart Aviation Scales to 200k Flights, Keeps 50% Margins
Samart Aviation's management team confirmed last week that they'll be able to serve 200,000 flights per week without needing to hire a single additional staff. That means that any additional revenue will come at ~50% incremental margins. https://t.co/i1hCzD9b3E
Strong Q4 Numbers Set Up PSE Breakout
Breakout in the Philippine Stock Exchange PSE PM? Honestly the Q4 numbers were strong, so I would not be surprised https://t.co/77fgs8oMBy
Trend‑jacking Boosts Visibility, but Kills Real Alpha
There’s this strategy called “trend jacking”, whereby influencers discuss whatever theme is popular at any given time. By discussing popular topics, you’ll show up on people’s timelines. But obsessing about the topic du jour is also a terrible strategy for generating...
David Katunaric’s Substack: Concise, High‑Performance Success
So impressed with @david_katunaric, and what he’s doing with his Substack. To the point and killing it, in terms of his performance.
Andreessen Predicts Years‑long Chip Shortage, Investors Weigh Timing
Marc Andressen says there's going to be chip shortages for years to come. Tempted to buy 2377 TT but how do you time it https://t.co/mmAb7yVsW1
Website Traffic Forecasts Customer Growth and Revenue
Website traffic predicts customer acquisition and revenue growth for many visitors. Here's how you can analyze websites to spot winners early.
Universal Extends Theatrical Window to 45 Days in 2027
Universal To Extend Exclusive Theatrical Window For Pics To 45 Days In 2027 --- bullish cinemas https://t.co/U20KYoNQOD
GTA VI Launches Nov 19 2026, Boosting Sony’s Pros
Rockstar's official website: Grand Theft Auto VI is Now Set to Launch November 19, 2026 This has to be positive for Sony 6758 JP https://t.co/ma1fkebdTa
Questioning DRAM Tightness When HBM Is Separate Market
What I don’t understand about the DRAM narrative is this: if HBM are a completely different market than commodity DRAM, why should we expect the latter market to be tight forever? It doesn’t compute
Record Cash Reserves Signal Prime Buying Opportunity
Current cash levels in a historical perspective, as per the BofA FMS. Feels like a good time to buy https://t.co/KoeTO5ThBC
Substack May Force Follows, Eroding Creator Audience Ownership
"I wouldn't be surprised at all, if in the future, Substack forces a follow button on the main landing page to Substacks... eventually they'll just want people to follow. You'll still have your Stripe details, but you won't own your...
Xero and Freee Share Identical Bullish Arguments
Listen to them speak about Xero here. The bull case for Freee is exactly the same. https://t.co/wuIVDiO5Lf
Record-Low Insider Selling Signals Buying Opportunity
- CNN Greed & Fear ratio 9/100 - Asia insider selling/buying ratio has reached a record low of 0.16 (!) according to Smart Insider - Trump is declaring that he wants to end the war - Bill Ackman (whose track record on market...
Vietnam's Vibrant Culture: My Top Takeaways
I just came back from a week in Vietnam. A fantastic place - super vibrant. Here are my key takeaways https://t.co/lxXNtt2ZsP
Hartalega's Surge Driven by Short Covering or Ringgit Weakness
Hartalega showing recent strength: either due to short covering or the weaker Malaysian Ringgit https://t.co/L0bif5C4cv
Iran’s Ideological Purge Mirrors CCP, Stifling Regime Change
Also, Iran has an office of the supreme leader that ensures all civil servants are ideologically pure. Similar to the CCP's Organization Department that keeps file of every party member. Any dissent is quickly crushed. So the probability of a...
VNINDEX Rally Driven Mainly by Thinly Traded Vingroup
Yeah no, valuation multiples seem reasonable especially given this backdrop. The VNINDEX rally was partly due to the incredible performance of thinly traded Vingroup. The rest has not rallied as much.
Investors Pile Into Chinese Glove Maker Blue Sail
A recent cluster buy in Chinese glove maker Blue Sail, according to Smart Insider https://t.co/cINzHSKOoq
Vietnam's Economy Thrives; To Lam Emerges as Reformer
Vietnam's macro situation is so impressive. And To Lam seems to be more of a reformer than I initially thought. https://t.co/pKtcfrLTG6
Underpaid Workers Cause Overproduction and Economic Crises
"Because workers are paid less than the total value they produce, they eventually cannot afford to buy back the goods they have created. This leads to a glut in the market, falling prices, factory closures, and mass unemployment." Karl Marx was...
India Gains Global Market Share Across Industries
India taking market share in almost every global industry, e.g. electronics, machinery and offshore services https://t.co/oP7wSlNcF0
HBM Standards Remain JEDEC‑Defined Across Implementations
“HBM is still governed by JEDEC standards (HBM3e, HBM4). While the implementation varies, the specs are standardized”
Group Identity Drives Self‑defeating Actions
Getting people to identify with a group is how you get them to act against their own interests. It works every time.
Analysts Value Netflix so Highly It’d Trade at 14x P/E
Love the anecdote about Nygren’s analyst pitching Netflix: - Anecdotal survey showed his colleagues valued Netflix higher than any other subscription - If Netflix raised its price to their level, it would have traded at 14x P/E https://t.co/SlDjNAkwbF https://t.co/cVAQ97b2Pr
No Mario 3D, but GTA 6 Lands on Switch 2
No 3D Mario game this year but GTA 6 will be available on the Switch 2
Government Actions Risk Crippling Tourism and Isolating Nation
Almost as if the government wants to destroy the tourism industry and isolate the country? This seems incredibly short-sighted
Gold Bull Market Doesn't Boost Chinese Jewelry Retailer
You would’ve thought that a Chinese retailer of gold jewelry should do well in a gold bull market. But no. https://t.co/I5hGQN1jn2
Cross‑selling at Atour Likely Adds Little Revenue
The Atour model: cross-selling products to customers. Does this really work? I doubt it’s much of a revenue line for Ya Kun https://t.co/plm2GxOcbJ
Visional's BizReach Disrupts Japan Recruitment, 20% Growth
Visional (4194 JP) is disrupting Japan's recruitment market through its direct-scouting platform BizReach. Growing 20% annually, and according to my estimate, 12.5x 2027e P/E. https://t.co/Q0cX2GjlDd
Memory Chip Oligopoly Myth: Only Three, Not Pricing Power
The same narrative that I'm hearing about memory chip companies: "only three left, so they finally have pricing power"
Emerging Market Ambitions Clash with Capital Controls
If the government is intent on the country becoming an emerging market, why does it insist on capital controls and foreign ownership limits? https://t.co/FnahXHXxsu https://t.co/NKzW8fXfGG
Salesforce Insider Purchase Signals Potential SaaS Bottom
Is someone tracking the insider buying across the broader SaaS complex? In Japan, only 5%+ holders need to disclose buying and selling, so there's limited data. But feels like we're nearing a bottom.
Watch Collecting Boosts Brands Like Timex, Casio, Seiko
Exactly right: a lot of watch brands are doing well, including Casio, Seiko and even Citizen. I attribute it to watch collecting, though could be wrong.
Sweden Beats California in Capital‑Friendly Wealth Building
“Sweden is more capital-friendly than California in almost every category that matters for building generational wealth”
Japanese SaaS Stocks Are Undervalued Growth Gems
The bull case for Japanese software: - Revenues in yen so not hurt by JPY appreciation - SaaS penetration rate is 5-7 years behind the US - Growth is hard to find in Japan, but in SaaS - yes - Incremental margins in...
AI Memory Supercycle Outpaces 1990s PC Boom
"This is really the strongest memory supercycle I have ever seen. It reminds me of the last very robust one, in the 1990s, when personal computers began to really take off, but with AI, it seems it's even stronger this...
Hoppers and Super Mario Galaxy Boost Box Office
Between Hoppers and the Super Mario Galaxy Movie, the box office should be doing alright https://t.co/Kb0Rh7NdVs
Avoid Emerging Market Indexes: Consistently Underperforming
1/ I've said it before and will say it again: avoid EM index investing. Their performance has lagged, both in the short-term and in the ultra-long run. https://t.co/MkPIAWW0Jf
Google Searches for “Ghost Newsletter” Triple in August
The number of Google search queries for “Ghost newsletter” tripled in August last year https://t.co/S94726OafX
500‑book Home Library Adds 3.2 Years of Schooling
"A home library of 500 books propels a child an average of 3.2 years further in education"
Nintendo's Secret: Simple Entry, Deep Mastery
The biggest takeaway from my research on Nintendo. Which was extensive, by the way. Shigeru Miyamoto said that Nintendo games should be “easy to get into, but challenging to master”. I think this explain part of the success of many...
Nintendo Hits Sweet Spot: Switch 2 Launch Fuels Monetization Surge
Looks like Nintendo is a sweet spot in its console cycle. The Switch 2 has just been released, and its monetizing strategy is going into overdrive. https://t.co/OwhZN9R740
Don't Let Tech Hype Predict Teacher Job Losses
70% likely that individual teachers will be replaced by AI? Can we stop assuming that tech guys know anything about the economy?
Prioritize Family Room and Kitchen Over Living Room
Love this picture. Why not increase the size of your family room and kitchen, and reduce the size of your “living room”? H/t: @brianluidog https://t.co/rKnXR16XIp
