Shorter EPS Windows Reveal Stronger S&P Earnings Growth
While everybody knows that S&P EPS estimates are moving higher, shorter-dated windows of estimates (removing stale numbers) show even stronger numbers in the past 60, 30, and 20 days. Wall Street is always looking at the 90-day window for an index, sector or stock. https://t.co/KQeSs7mIIw
US Market Resilience Fueled by Broadening Earnings Revisions
Behind the resilience of the US market is broader earnings. While cap-weighted earnings’ contribution remains Tech heavy, as it’s been for years, we’ve move up to a broader number of companies seeing positive EPS revisions alongside the continue strength in...
Real GDP Still Near 3% Amid Policy Risks
Jake Oubina (Piper Economics)returns to discuss the macro outlook. Despite geopolitics, oil, and sentiment shifts, he sticks with ~3% real GDP. We hit tariffs, immigration, and policy risks—and why the backdrop may be more resilient than consensus. https://t.co/e9bJuqjgRy
Unemployment Rate Drives 10‑2 Yield Curve Movements
The most correlated macro data that explains the 10-2 yield curve is the unemployment rate. Why? The short end drives most of the movements in the curve, and employment heavily influences the short end via Fed policy. This relationship goes...
Rising Oil and Rates Amplify Stock Market Volatility
Oil & Interest rates, collectively, are single-handedly driving the equity market. The longer prices remain high, the flatter the slope will be WRT stocks. That means, smaller changes in oil/rates will have larger impacts on stocks. One reason this is...
Stocks Move Inversely With Oil in One-Variable Market
One-variable markets overwhelm classic market timing metrics like sentiment, technicals and valuation which are more useful in “normal” times. A composite of oil and rates (oil is driving rates too) tells you all you need to know about the direction...
Underweight High Short‑Interest Stocks Generates Consistent Alpha
Short squeezes make headlines. But systematically underweighting stocks with elevated short interest (in a sector-neutral portfolio) continues to generate alpha. Notably, only ~4% of stocks across Wall Street carry a SELL rating. https://t.co/MI1AzbmeRF
Oil Shocks Lift Risk Premiums, Weaken Markets, Curb Inflation
Risk premium rising across equities and credit while intraday correlation between oil and equities around -80%. Oil shocks push the tide out and expose underlying weak links. The peak in oil in June 2022 explained the first low in markets...
Value Stocks Outperform Even in AI-Driven Market
Value investing is alive and well. The indices (S&P & Russell) have cap, sector and factor-selection biases that mask the performance of classic investment strategies. Buying a cross-sectional (sector-neutral basket) of cheap stocks has outperformed over time, and even during...
Oil Prices Dictate Yields and SPX Until $
Oil = 10yr = -SPX 1 variable market continued for another week and will likely persist until oil drops back below ~$70 when the Strait is back in business. https://t.co/349BroE6sP
Manufacturing PMIs Validate EPS Breadth as Cycle Beta
This makes sense - manufacturing PMIs corroborate EPS breadth as it’s the beta of the business cycle. Thanks for bringing back the 📙! https://t.co/SrEetSesnP
Crude Spike Turns Market Binary, Leaders React Predictably
In this episode, we discuss how the recent spike in crude has created a “one-variable market,” where leadership becomes highly binary. We also discuss how leadership typically behaves during and after an exogenous shock. https://t.co/bvqWT3unbt
Weight, Not Stock Choice, Drives Performance Differences
The problem isn’t the stocks, it’s their weight. These two lines contain the same exact stocks. #Mag7Diet $RSP $SPY https://t.co/OXqmQXkEkc
Oil Levels Dictate Market Peaks During Exogenous Shocks
Updated chart of our 1-variable stock market. This is how markets behave during exogenous shocks - stocks need oil to peak. Aftermath eco forecasts rarely matter. Same thing happened last year, but with trade uncertainty. Need something to the...
PMI Rebound Offers Limited Boost for Crypto Speculation
ISM vs Bitcoin relationship is more correlation than causation. The difference today compared to past cycles is credit spreads were wide to start the PMI rebound, due to prior growth scares that led to risk off environments. Since 2022, spreads...