Goldilocks Outlook Faces Market Skepticism Amid Hot Inflation
“the next phase of this cycle could be characterized by accelerating growth, declining inflation, falling interest rates” You might, and hopefully, will be right on this Goldilocks forecast @CathieDWood, but the market won’t believe it until it sees it. Right now inflation is running too hot and stronger labor data stokes an investor base with heightened inflation-anxiety.
12th Annual Macro & Markets Guide Empowers Investors
Today we published our 12th annual Field Guide to Macro & Markets to help investors, new and old, refine their investment process and better understand the impact of macro forces on markets. If you are interested in seeing the report...
Rising Rates First Narrow Market Breadth, Then Indices Fall
Since 2023, I've been highlighting that investors should be more concerned with rising rates rather than growth scares. EVERY macro problem first shows up in a very narrow way, affecting market breadth, before it becomes a systemic issue (pushes the...
Small Caps Surge as Earnings Rebound, Market Broadens
Smaller caps are on a sustainable tear over the last two quarters because the market is fundamentally broadening out for the first time since ‘21. Those who are overly focused on S&P contribution-math are overlooking the broadening opportunity set of...
Expensive Market Justified—Only Margin or Rate Shocks Matter
Oftentimes “nice” things are expensive. Today’s fundamental and macro backdrop currently warrants an expensive market. But expensive doesn’t necessarily mean overvalued. A sustained drop in margins or spike in rates would warrant a less expensive market. https://t.co/txKEb7klr2
Early Manufacturing Rebound Fuels AI‑Driven Earnings Surge
We’re still in the early innings of a MFG PMI rebound, which is adding to the AI capex boom. We spent three years without a cycle, while AI spending was solely driving earnings. Now, we have more companies seeing +...
Macro Breadth Returns: Lower Rates and Oil Boost EPS
Today’s backdrop is the broadest macro & micro backdrop we’ve seen since 2021. While AI themes remain dominant, a more classic macro broadening has been taking place since 4Q/25, for the first time in years. Lower rates/oil can help to...
Inside Fed Strategy: Kurt Lewis Shares Central Bank Insights
In this episode we sit down with Kurt Lewis, Head of Central Bank Policy at Piper Sandler and former Special Advisor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. https://t.co/N5gUxUSRsB
Earnings‑Driven Tech Stocks Outperform With Lower Volatility
Fundamentals matter, especially within Tech. As investors consider the Tech sector, it's not a question of overweighting the group or not, but rather which Tech stocks to own. Stocks where earnings are doing the heavy lifting have performed far better...
Data Shows Calm Amid Market Noise
Four months into the year, markets have been anything but quiet. Headlines around oil prices, geopolitics, and inflation anxiety continue to dominate the narrative, but beneath the noise, the data tells a very different story. https://t.co/LttZXnif1R
Shorter EPS Windows Reveal Stronger S&P Earnings Growth
While everybody knows that S&P EPS estimates are moving higher, shorter-dated windows of estimates (removing stale numbers) show even stronger numbers in the past 60, 30, and 20 days. Wall Street is always looking at the 90-day window for an...
US Market Resilience Fueled by Broadening Earnings Revisions
Behind the resilience of the US market is broader earnings. While cap-weighted earnings’ contribution remains Tech heavy, as it’s been for years, we’ve move up to a broader number of companies seeing positive EPS revisions alongside the continue strength in...
Real GDP Still Near 3% Amid Policy Risks
Jake Oubina (Piper Economics)returns to discuss the macro outlook. Despite geopolitics, oil, and sentiment shifts, he sticks with ~3% real GDP. We hit tariffs, immigration, and policy risks—and why the backdrop may be more resilient than consensus. https://t.co/e9bJuqjgRy
Unemployment Rate Drives 10‑2 Yield Curve Movements
The most correlated macro data that explains the 10-2 yield curve is the unemployment rate. Why? The short end drives most of the movements in the curve, and employment heavily influences the short end via Fed policy. This relationship goes...
Rising Oil and Rates Amplify Stock Market Volatility
Oil & Interest rates, collectively, are single-handedly driving the equity market. The longer prices remain high, the flatter the slope will be WRT stocks. That means, smaller changes in oil/rates will have larger impacts on stocks. One reason this is...