Broad Market Breadth Improves, Favoring Value and Cyclicals
Second strong ISM NO print in a row. I'm not bullish, I'm BROADish. We see macro and micro breadth improving into 2027. Benefits to value, cyclicals, active management. https://t.co/geofWJYULy
Macro Cycle Shift Triggers Broad Market Re‑rating After AI Boom
Maybe, just maybe, there is a cyclical component to the past 5 months of underperformance in the largest names and momentum factors. A turn in the macro cycle usually leads to a turn in market leadership. We went 3 years...
Oil Spike Threatens Stocks Like 1990s Gulf War
A sharp oil spike to those levels would likely result in a one-variable stock market like we initially saw during the 1990’s Persian Gulf War. Stocks under pressure until oil prices come back down. https://t.co/8DQZhDYXqo
Tight Index Range Masks Historic Market Dispersion
In this episode, we sit down with Piper’s Head of Options Strategy, Danny Kirsch to unpack one of the most unusual market environments in decades. The index has traded in a tight range, yet beneath that stability we’re seeing historic...
New Global PMI Upswing Expected Through 2027
It’s been a while since I’ve seen so much focus on the ISM. Our work has over 15 individual series that lead this data (regressions don’t work well out of sample), between 6 and 18 months and another dozen that...
Broader Market Defies Mega‑Cap AI Volatility Narrative
In this episode, Michael and Stephen break down one of the most confusing market environments in years. While volatility in mega-cap software and AI names has grabbed headlines, the broader market is quietly telling a very different story. https://t.co/uhRhg9iiil
2026 Poised as Decade’s Best Year for Active Management
2026 could be the best year for active management in decades. The combination of a heavily concentrated index alongside a period of cyclical broadening provides for a backdrop of most stocks beating the benchmark.
Investors Shift to Staples Amid Mag‑7 CAP‑Ex Weakness
In my weekly markets video for clients, I highlighted how investors have gone from “7 to Staples”. Usually, growing macro risks lead to Staples leadership. This time macro isn’t the issue, but it could be due to Mag 7’s idiosyncratic...
Long‑duration Assets Like Bitcoin, Growth Stocks Lose Favor
Bitcoin's drop has coincided with a decline in the Russell 1000's Pure Growth P/E. What do they have in common? Both are long-duration, and are being shunned during the underlying rotation into shorter-duration (cyclical) securities (think value, dividend payers, Energy...
EW Tech Beats S&P 500 Amid Ongoing Rotation
Despite the YTD losses in the Tech sector, the EW Tech sector (the avg Tech stock) is outperforming the S&P 500 this year. Plenty of Tech names to own that remain in an uptrend as a market rotation continues to...
Institutional Sentiment Swings Rapidly Amid AI Disruption Fears
This week’s episode explores a dramatic shift in sentiment that unfolded in just a few days. Emily and Michael are joined by Jay Glickson (Macro Sales) to discuss what institutional investors are saying, how AI disruption fears are shaping their...
Value Tilt Gains as Momentum Spread Widens 16%
Classic monotonic pattern. When you see this pattern you know with a higher degree of certainty that it is one of THE drivers of how investors are positioning their portfolios. We’ve been recommending a value tilt since last fall, as...
Broadening Value and Cyclical Rotation Driven by Fundamentals
We now have the longest and strongest breadth rotation in recent years. Notably, it’s the only rotation that has been propelled by broader macro and micro fundamentals rather than lower rates. We first recommended a broadening trade of value and...