411k FHA Borrowers Face Equity Risk in Weak Markets
Doing a little more deep dive on FHA borrowers. How many people are "at risk" with low or negative equity and higher mortgage rates? About 411,000 since mid-2022. Many of the biggest FHA markets, like Phoenix and Houston, have had the weakest home price appreciation - or negative - since then.
2025 HMDA Data Shows FHA Borrower Credit
Since the only corner of the US housing market that has any distressed borrowers are in the FHA loans, I was curious if the credit quality of FHA borrowers deteriorated over the past few years. The 2025 HMDA data is...
SF Buyers Pay Premium for Move‑in Ready Homes
The other factor here is that it is already remodeled. Buyers are afraid of the time and cost to remodel in SF so they’re paying big premiums for completed work.
Hiring Growth Drives 2026 Real Estate More Than Unemployment
Why hiring matters more than unemployment for the real estate market in 2026. My latest for HousingWire. https://t.co/uaChbKgjEm
SF Condo Prices Surpass $1,000 per Sq Ft After Two Years
Welp, San Francisco condo prices are back above $1000/sft for the first time in two years. https://t.co/hRx2V9xESt
War's Impact Cripples Housing Market, April Outlook Uncertain
Seems pretty obvious how much the war has hit the housing market. Gonna be fascinating to see what happens for the rest of April. Can we recover? https://t.co/Zgs9wOEOF7
Finally Juggling Two Apps: Brain Finally Adapts
As incredible as Claude Code is, I find I am still a serial thinker. One app at a time, one problem set at a time. I can't even conceptualize multiple apps in parallel. After months, this moment is the first...
California Fast‑food Wage Hike Harms Intended Beneficiaries
Very useful insight on California fast food minimum wage. No surprise on the outcome (generally worse for the folks attempting to be helped) but it's good to have the data.
Homebuyer Demand Slips Below Last Year's Pace
Home buyer demand just dipped below last year's pace for the first time since the January storms. ➡️85,000 new pending sales this week, down 2.6% from 2025 ➡️Price reductions at 34.5% of active listings, climbing ➡️Inventory only 4% above last year (was 36%...
AI Thrives in SF, Austin Finally Showing Promise
We can definitely see AI in San Francisco market, not so much in Austin or Seattle. But there are some signals that Austin may finally be turning the corner, so maybe Conor is on to something.
Slightly Elevated Withdrawals and Cancellations Remain Unremarkable
Through March, withdrawn listings and canceled contracts are still slightly elevated, but don't look particularly alarming to me https://t.co/aDY2kdN66d
Abysmal Hiring Rate Signals Housing Market Trouble
In other depressing news for the housing market, the hiring rate is abysmal. The hiring rate continues to be my key macro indicator for whether the housing market can recover this year. February looks bad. https://t.co/rdRsiAwAaR
Home Price Growth Stalls; Atlanta Joins Declining Markets
Home prices are only up 0.9% vs last year at this time. Essentially all markets have declining growth. 10 markets are now negative vs. Jan 2025. Atlanta is new to the list. Weakness on the West Coast in the period....
Mortgage Intent Index Slides, Yet Pending Sales Remain Positive
The Xactus Mortgage Intent Index dipped this week. Three down weeks in a row and below last year now. Xactus is counting credit pulls, so it includes refis. I've found this data to correlate well with the pending sales rate, though...
Rising Rates Erase Affordability Gains, Prices May Dip
Mortgage rates hit the upper 6s this week - up 65 bps in a month. The affordability gains of early 2026 are gone. Here's what the data shows: ➡️85,000 pending sales this week, down for the week. Still 1.5% above last...