Housing Leading Indicators Return to Positive Growth
With the MBA data this morning, all of my three favorite housing leading indicators have flipped back to positive YoY growth after war-related declines at the end of March. Will it hold? https://t.co/nPUuWGhIrg
411k FHA Borrowers Face Equity Risk in Weak Markets
Doing a little more deep dive on FHA borrowers. How many people are "at risk" with low or negative equity and higher mortgage rates? About 411,000 since mid-2022. Many of the biggest FHA markets, like Phoenix and Houston, have had the...
2025 HMDA Data Shows FHA Borrower Credit
Since the only corner of the US housing market that has any distressed borrowers are in the FHA loans, I was curious if the credit quality of FHA borrowers deteriorated over the past few years. The 2025 HMDA data is...
SF Buyers Pay Premium for Move‑in Ready Homes
The other factor here is that it is already remodeled. Buyers are afraid of the time and cost to remodel in SF so they’re paying big premiums for completed work.
Hiring Growth Drives 2026 Real Estate More Than Unemployment
Why hiring matters more than unemployment for the real estate market in 2026. My latest for HousingWire. https://t.co/uaChbKgjEm
SF Condo Prices Surpass $1,000 per Sq Ft After Two Years
Welp, San Francisco condo prices are back above $1000/sft for the first time in two years. https://t.co/hRx2V9xESt
War's Impact Cripples Housing Market, April Outlook Uncertain
Seems pretty obvious how much the war has hit the housing market. Gonna be fascinating to see what happens for the rest of April. Can we recover? https://t.co/Zgs9wOEOF7
Finally Juggling Two Apps: Brain Finally Adapts
As incredible as Claude Code is, I find I am still a serial thinker. One app at a time, one problem set at a time. I can't even conceptualize multiple apps in parallel. After months, this moment is the first...
California Fast‑food Wage Hike Harms Intended Beneficiaries
Very useful insight on California fast food minimum wage. No surprise on the outcome (generally worse for the folks attempting to be helped) but it's good to have the data.
Homebuyer Demand Slips Below Last Year's Pace
Home buyer demand just dipped below last year's pace for the first time since the January storms. ➡️85,000 new pending sales this week, down 2.6% from 2025 ➡️Price reductions at 34.5% of active listings, climbing ➡️Inventory only 4% above last year (was 36%...
AI Thrives in SF, Austin Finally Showing Promise
We can definitely see AI in San Francisco market, not so much in Austin or Seattle. But there are some signals that Austin may finally be turning the corner, so maybe Conor is on to something.
Slightly Elevated Withdrawals and Cancellations Remain Unremarkable
Through March, withdrawn listings and canceled contracts are still slightly elevated, but don't look particularly alarming to me https://t.co/aDY2kdN66d
Abysmal Hiring Rate Signals Housing Market Trouble
In other depressing news for the housing market, the hiring rate is abysmal. The hiring rate continues to be my key macro indicator for whether the housing market can recover this year. February looks bad. https://t.co/rdRsiAwAaR
Home Price Growth Stalls; Atlanta Joins Declining Markets
Home prices are only up 0.9% vs last year at this time. Essentially all markets have declining growth. 10 markets are now negative vs. Jan 2025. Atlanta is new to the list. Weakness on the West Coast in the period....
Mortgage Intent Index Slides, Yet Pending Sales Remain Positive
The Xactus Mortgage Intent Index dipped this week. Three down weeks in a row and below last year now. Xactus is counting credit pulls, so it includes refis. I've found this data to correlate well with the pending sales rate, though...
Rising Rates Erase Affordability Gains, Prices May Dip
Mortgage rates hit the upper 6s this week - up 65 bps in a month. The affordability gains of early 2026 are gone. Here's what the data shows: ➡️85,000 pending sales this week, down for the week. Still 1.5% above last...
Kalshi and Polymarket Face Growing Insider Trading Risks
This is a very informative look at how Kalshi and Polymarket are entangled with the insider trading problem. https://t.co/MNC9ECLZqO https://t.co/CXr175X8eD
Unemployment Numbers Defy Bearish Economy Narrative
Man, it's hard to look at the unemployment data and see a bearish economy. https://t.co/IZjRJlefW9
Investors Adapt When Home Prices Stop Rising
In our latest Real Estate Conversations podcast I talk with Dave Meyer of the massive investor community, Bigger Pockets. One thing I wanted to learn was what happens to the investor game when we can no longer rely on home prices...
Public Split on Whether Mortgage Rates Are Rising
If you look at this chart of mortgage rates, do you say rates are: Up, Flat, or Down? (poll follows below) https://t.co/f44iFahBSk
Considering a Used F250 Purchase This Summer
I’ve been in the market for a used F250. Thinking this summer might be a good opportunity. https://t.co/hlsi7GwL5b
Home Prices Poised to Dip Below 2022 Levels by Summer
Home prices sure look like they could be back under 2022 levels by late summer. *This is list prices, which is subject to a shift in the mix of homes available, but it a direct measure of how much homes cost,...
January Home Sales Slip; Watch Under‑Construction Trend
New home sales and prices stumble in January. But my eyes are on that Under Construction line... https://t.co/ba6EOBkX36
Tahoe Winter Triathlon: Ski, Bike, Wake‑Surf in One Day
My Tahoe friends are doing the Tahoe triathlon this week: Snow ski in the morning, bike to the lake, wake surf in the afternoon. This is usually a June or July activity.
Zuckerberg's Daring Bets Showcase Superhuman Corporate Courage
Unpopular opinion: Zuck demonstrates superhuman levels of guts in his willingness to bet the company on entirely new directions, even though (especially since) this bet failed.
San Francisco's Pandemic‑Era Inventory Has Vanished Completely
Gave a quick talk for agents in San Francisco today. Would you be surprised to learn that all the pandemic-era inventory in the city is completely gone? We really are in the next era of the housing market https://t.co/JmnzqbgEMn
Anthropic Reveals AI Deception, Offers Misalignment Inoculation
In this Anthropic paper, the model moves from “reward hacking” into more generalized misaligned behavior, even inventing deceptions to hide the behavior when being observed. Lessons: 1. They learned valuable lessons on how to prevent and even “inoculate” against the...
Entrepreneurs Often Postpone Painful Layoffs Until Confidence Builds
Chatting with an entrepreneur friend yesterday. Three weeks into his Open Claw experimentation. He’s preparing to cut the first 3 of his 15 person team in the next few weeks. Hasn’t actually pulled the trigger yet, will be fascinating to...
Existing Home Sales Lag, Yet Show 4% Post‑Storm Gain
NAR's existing home sales came out for February and it doesn't yet reflect what we're seeing in the weekly pending sales that we track. NAR is trying to publish this data earlier to keep up, but it still has...
Mortgage Intent Index Peaks Highest in Over Two Years
A great dataset I recently got access to: Xactus Mortgage Intent Index. Xactus processes credit pulls in the mortgage application process. The index is based on actual apps. It is highly correlated with the Altos weekly pendings data. Now at highest...
US Energy Exporter Still Vulnerable to Oil Price Swings
Post-pandemic, American consumer (homeowner) debt was locked in cheap for ever and it made the Fed’s job more difficult. Raising rates didn’t impact spending as much. But we drive big cars long distances so oil spikes impact our spend...
Home Prices Dip 1.38% YoY, Falling Since October
List prices are 1.38% below last year. Home prices have been negative since October and are moving lower, relative to last year. Here's two views https://t.co/xHl3d0HNvs
Inflation and Job Loss Cripple 2026 Real Estate
Surging inflation and sagging employment double whammy for the fragile real estate market in 2026 https://t.co/4yrdR28tG3
Texas, Florida, California Lead; Who Ranks Fourth?
The biggest three states for existing home sales are 1. Texas 2. Florida 3. California Who is #4?
US Housing Market Splits Amid Ongoing Weather Impacts
Another shocking example of the divided US housing market. I believe a lot of this is still showing weather effects from early in the month. But still... https://t.co/Ze7mUcxJS4
Chicago's Migration Reverses: In
Migration patterns for the Chicago MSA in the past few years really illustrate what I've called "The Great Stay." Q2 2025 was the first period in many years where inbound migration exceeded outbound migration. Over the last 8 years, total moves...
Housing Market Rebounds: Listings, Sales Rise; Price Cuts Fall
🏘️The housing market finally got some relief this week as the country thawed out after weeks of winter storms. New listings jumped, inventory climbed 1.4% to over 700,000 single family homes, and pending sales came in 4.6% ahead of last year....