Mohamed El‑Erian
Macro economist/strategist; comments on macro funds’ positioning in commodities within broader policy and growth context.
New Fed Chair Vows Price Stability Amid Persistent Inflation Misses
Having taken the helm at a time when the Federal Reserve has missed its inflation target every month for over five years, the new Fed Chair has emphasized several times this afternoon that the central bank "will deliver price stability"—reinforcing the concluding sentence of the FOMC statement. #economy @federalreserveboard #markets #kevinwarsh
US‑Iran Deal Marks Only First Market Recovery Step
FYI, my thoughts on the economic aspects of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, including four issues to watch: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-iran-agreement-only-first-step-for-markets-and-global-economy-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2026-06 #economy #markets #oil #energy #middleeastwar
ECB Must Raise Rates to Preserve Price Stability
The ECB is expected to initiate interest rate hikes today. While this may draw criticism from some given the current growth context, the Bank actually has little choice. Unlike the Fed’s dual mandate of inflation and employment, the ECB has a...
Rate‑rise Fears and AI Spend Spark Market Plunge
WSJ: "Fears of rising interest rates collided with worries about artificial-intelligence spending on Wall Street Friday, bringing an abrupt and painful end to weeks of gains and sending the Nasdaq composite to its worst day in more than a year.... The...
Jobs Report Pushes Yields Higher, Markets Price Year‑End Fed Hike
The immediate reaction of the US rates market to the Jobs Report is to take yields up across the whole curve. It is now fully pricing in a Fed rate hike by the end of this year. (Bloomberg data below.) #economy #markets #federalreserve...
April Jobs Report Shows Steady Growth, Unchanged Unemployment
It’s “Jobs Friday” in the US. Consensus forecasts expect what I would characterize as a “steady state” report for April, including: Solid job growth of 88,000. Unchanged unemployment rate (4.3%), labor force participation (61.8%), and average weekly hours (34.3). Annual...
Beige Book Shows Strong Activity, Rising Inflation Concerns
The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book (link below) provides bottom-up context for the two key contrasts previously highlighted by the macro data: Reassuring headline economic activity alongside more troubling inflationary developments. Solid current economic activity (hard data) contrasting with anxieties among businesses...
Watch Cash Sources as Paper Flood Hits Markets
With so much paper set to hit the markets over the next few months—across both bonds and equities—it's worth keeping an eye on the potential sources of cash available to absorb this supply. In this context, here is an interesting...
AI Earnings Drive Market Surge Amid Geopolitical Turbulence
My weekly look at the global economy and markets details how last week capped off a highly active month characterized by a complex interplay of geopolitical developments, shifting energy markets, diverging economic data, and strong corporate earnings reinforcing the AI...
Oil Dip Drives Yields Down, Stocks Hit Records
Another day of notably lower oil prices, with WTI now trading below $90 a barrel (see CNBC data below). This has contributed to lower government bond yields in advanced economies, which, in turn, helped push several equity indices to new...
Housing Costs Drop to 42% of Income, Still Steep
WSJ: “Buyers now allocate 42% of their incomes to housing costs, according to the [US] Burns Affordability Index, which is calculated based on a 10% down payment on a median-priced existing home. This is still extremely unaffordable, but better than...
Bond Issuance Surges as Buyers Retreat, Developing Economies Sell
Bond issuance is growing, driven by both big tech (FT below) and national governments. This arrives at a time when some traditional buyers are retreating, while an increasing number of developing economies are selling off their holdings to meet mounting FX...
U.S. Growth Set to Outpace Peers Through 2030
The Economist on the U.S. economy’s consistent growth outperformance relative to other advanced countries: “America’s outperformance began decades ago, but in the 2020s it has become vast. And it is likely to last. The latest IMF forecasts show American growth besting...
Powell’s Eight-Year Fed Tenure: Inflation Shocks and Independence Fight
From the FT article, “Inside Jay Powell’s turbulent eight years leading the Fed: Central bank chair’s tenure was marked by inflation shocks and his battle to protect the institution’s independence.” #economy #inflation #markets
30‑Year Treasury Yields Hit 20‑Year High on Inflation
Bloomberg: "Yields on the US Treasury’s longest-dated bond rose to the highest level in almost two decades as investor concerns mount that accelerating inflation will force central bankers to raise interest rates." #economy #markets #bonds