Mohamed El‑Erian
Macro economist/strategist; comments on macro funds’ positioning in commodities within broader policy and growth context.
Brent Surpasses $100 as VP Vance Cancels Islamabad Trip
Brent oil is back above $100 after US Vice President JD Vance called off his Islamabad trip. This follows Iran’s refusal to join talks there to negotiate an end to the War or, at the minimum, extend the ceasefire, which is scheduled to expire tomorrow. #economy #markets #oil #middleeastwar
Asian Economies Highly Vulnerable to Middle East War Fallout
You’ve heard me warn about the vulnerability of several Asian economies to the fallout from the Middle East War, though I haven’t gone as far as this latest analysis in the NYT. #economy #markets #asia @nytimes #middleeastwar
Iran War Fuels Persistent US Inflation Ahead of Midterms
A warning from the Financial Time (which has economic, political and social implications): "war in Iran has unleashed a torrent of inflation in the US that economists warn will linger long after the conflict ends, squeezing Americans ahead of November’s midterm...
Global Economy Splits Into Diverging Realities This Week
FYI, the links to my weekly look at the global economy and markets, including what has evolved into a tale of two (if not more) realities. https://open.substack.com/pub/mohamedelerian/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-550?r=33wip&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-look-global-economy-markets-mohamed-el-erian-w4wbe/?lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_feed%3Btfqi0xMNTveCEbORqFBpMw%3D%3D #economy #markets
Iran Reasserts Military Control Over Strait of Hormuz
A reminder that the path toward an orderly de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East remains fraught with challenges: Per the statement carried by Iranian media and reported by The Guardian, "...control of the strait of Hormuz has reverted to its...
S&P Sets New Records as Oil, Yields Stay Elevated
With an impressive week nowunder its belt, the S&P has done more than just reclaim its pre-war levels. It has registered multiple record highs. Interestingly, both oil prices and government bond yields remain elevated above their own pre-war levels. #economy #markets
Strait of Hormuz Reopens—Durability and Ship Commitment Key
The reported reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is undoubtedly a welcome relief for the global economy. Needless to say, its true impact depends on the durability of this reopening, which will require sustained confidence-building measures from all three...
Oil Price Plunge Lifts Stocks and Bonds
Oil prices just dropped sharply in reaction to this Bloomberg headline, boosting both stock market indices and bond prices (i.e., lower yields). #economy #markets #energy #oil
Jobless Claims Confirm US Labor Market Resilience
Weekly jobless claims are perhaps the best real-time pulse check on US jobs, and this morning, they’re signaling a continued resilient labor market. (Bloomberg headline below.) #economy #jobs #employment #markets
Middle East War Amplifies All Global Economic Woes
Reading between the lines, the message of today's IMF flagship report is sobering: Virtually every challenge facing the global economy is poised to intensify due to the fallout of the Middle East War. This includes Insufficient growth Burdensome cost of...
IMF Slashes UK Growth Forecast, Flags Stagnation
Among the G7, the IMF’s outlook for the UK is likely to attract attention due to: • A Sharp Growth Downgrade : 2026 GDP forecast has been slashed to 0.8%, risking "stall speed." • Persistent Inflation: The hope that inflation would return...
IMF Renames Baseline to “Reference Forecast” Amid Uncertainty
This is the usual summary table from the IMF’s latest WEO. Notably, the Fund has swapped its usual "baseline" terminology for a “reference forecast” paired with alternative scenarios. This shift highlights today's volatile global landscape, characterized by high uncertainty and disparity,...
US PPI Inflation Slows to 0.5%, Easing Fed Pressure
This will come as a relief to many, including the Federal Reserve: Monthly US PPI inflation was 0.5% in March, less than half the consensus forecast. America's diversified economy and its energy security are again distinguishing its economic performance from much of...
UK Bond Market Losers Identified, Risks Explained, Solutions Offered
Posted earlier today: FYI, here’s the link to my column on who lost the UK bond market—the what, why, and so what... and also what to do about it: https://www.ft.com/content/4b258818-4935-4507-b554-bccc5fd05b66 #economy #markets #bonds #uk @financialtimes
US March Home Sales Drop 3.6%, Exceed Forecast
The @wsj on the US housing market: "Home sales declined 3.6% in March, getting the crucial spring selling season off to a poor start as the high cost of housing and economic uncertainty held buyers back.... The 3.6% month over month decline...