Mohamed El‑Erian
Macro economist/strategist; comments on macro funds’ positioning in commodities within broader policy and growth context.
Asia-Pacific Oil Prices Break $100 Barrier Again
As expected, oil prices are surging higher in Asia-Pacific trading, with both Brent and WTI quoted above $100 a barrel again. #markets #economy #oil #energy
Energy Prices Surge, Sparking Crises Across Europe and Developing Nations
This reporting from The Guardian gives us a feel for the growing pressures in Europe as energy prices remain high. The situation is worse in some developing countries, where physical shortages are already occurring. #economy #MiddleEastWar #oil #energy @guardian
Oil Futures Lag Behind Spot Prices Amid Supply Shock
From The New York Times : “The futures and spot prices are rarely exactly the same, but the gap between them has grown unusually big in the past few weeks, so much so that oil executives and analysts say futures prices...
Middle East War Headlines Instantly Dent Oil and Gilt Markets
Markets remain incredibly sensitive to Middle East War headlines. Case in point: the latest Israel-Lebanon headlinea erased 4 percentage points of today’s oil price gains (CNBC chart below). Even more significantly, they took 8 basis points off the 10-year UK gilt...
UK Bond Volatility Undermines Liquidity and Mortgage Availability
Once again, the UK financial markets are dominated by the “high beta” character of government bonds. (Please see Bloomberg data below.) This isn't just about rate volatility in the national benchmark; it’s also about how that volatility undermines market liquidity, complicates...
Oil Prices Dip After US‑Iran Ceasefire News
Please see the CNBC chart below for the initial oil market reaction to the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. #economy #oil #energy #markets
ISM Services Shows Rising Costs, Still Resilient Growth
Today’s ISM Services data reinforces the dual narrative of rising input prices and a resilient real economy. (The one caveat is that while the economy remains expansionary, the momentum wasn’t as robust as in previous months.) #economy #markets #growth #inflation
Saudi Oil Price Surge Signals Phase Three Economic Fallout
From the Bloomberg article on “Saudi Arabia rais[ing] the price of its main oil grade to Asia to a record high premium.” This price development coincides with more Asian governments worrying about physical energy supplies—marking part of what I’ve termed "Phase...
A Pivotal Week Ahead for Global Economy and Markets
Another pivotal week is on tap for the global economy and markets. Please see why in this, my weekly note on recent developments and immediate prospects (links below). https://mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-910?r=33wip https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-look-global-economy-markets-mohamed-el-erian-zecrc?lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_series_entity%3BIEUjQgDHQGSDuxWPLz3R%2BQ%3D%3D #economy #markets
California Gas Prices Surge, Hitting Coastal Residents Hard
If this gives us sticker shock here — and it does — we have to spare a thought for those on the California coast. #energy #gas #inflation #economy #markets
US Jobs Market Shifts From Steady Growth to Volatility
Taking the data at face value, the US labor market appears to have transitioned from a period of sustained, stable growth into a phase of significant volatility. Per the FT chart below, recent reports are characterized by sharp swings between job...
Jobs Surge Boosts Main Street, Participation Rate Still Lags
My five main takeaways from this morning’s strong March US Jobs Report: 1. Great news for Main Street: With a blockbuster 178,000 jobs added and unemployment dropping to 4.3%, the labor market is outperforming expectations. 2. The supply-side challenge: The labor force...
US Energy Shock Hits Prices; Asia Faces Real Shortages
Remember, the energy shock in the US is primarily about price. Elsewhere in much of the world, quantity is also a real concern. Indeed, you only need to look at the ongoing policy and household/corporate adaptations in an increasing number of...
Oil Prices Hit Highest Since 2008, Surpassing War Levels
From Bloomberg: “The world’s most important price for real-world oil barrels surged above $140 on Thursday, the highest since 2008. Dated Brent, the price of shipments bought and sold in the North Sea, reached $141.37, surpassing levels seen when Russia invaded...
Trump’s War Address Sends Oil Market Into Whiplash
Whipsawed once again: That is the state of the oil market and beyond as investors react to President Trump’s address to the nation regarding the Middle East War. (5-day WTI oil price chart below from CNBC.) #economy #markets #oil #MiddleEastWar @cnbc
Gulf War Triggers Asian Price, Debt, Scarcity Crisis
In this article, “how the Gulf’s war is becoming Asia’s crisis too,” The Economist magazine analyzes the three main transmission channels: “prices, debt and scarcity.” #economy #asia #middleeastwar #growth #inflation #debt @theeconomist
Each Dollar of Debt Increases Rate Risk, Reduces Crisis Flex
From the @wsj “the safety of Treasury debt is a function of math and confidence…. There is no magic number where U.S. debt becomes unsustainable, but every tick upward leaves the government more exposed to interest-rate fluctuations and less able...
Global Stocks End Month in Brutal Decline
A Bloomberg table on a brutal month for stock markets around the world. #economy #markets #stocks #investing #investora
War in Middle East Drives Inflation and Slower Growth
A stark message from the IMF: "Although the war could shape the global economy in different ways, all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth." https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/03/30/how-the-war-in-the-middle-east-is-affecting-energy-trade-and-finance #economy #markets #growth #inflation @the_imf
Watch if France, Japan, UK Echo US Yield Drop
As we monitor global bond markets, please keep an eye on whether France, Japan, and the UK mimic the retreat in US yields. The three G7 markets have already faced pressure from bond vigilantes since 2022. Whether they follow the US lead...
Middle East Conflict's Economic Shock Far Larger Than Expected
"Most people don't understand as yet the magnitude of this shock." Of all the issues discussed during this weekend’s many conference calls on the economic and financial consequences of the Middle East conflict, this one sentence stood out the most. It’s a...
Energy Shock Could Trigger Demand Collapse, Slowing US Growth
Below is an example of a new and ongoing economic risk to the US economy from the US-Israeli War on Iran — What begins as a "cost of living" problem (Energy Price Shock), if sustained, risks evolving into a "fewer...
Stagflation and War Trigger Biggest 60/40 Loss Since 2022
Stagflationary winds and the biggest monthly loss for the classic 60/40 investment portfolio since 2022, the global economic and financial fallout of the Middle East War are tangible. This week’s data deluge will help us assess how much resilience remains in...
60/40 Portfolio Faces Biggest Monthly Drop Since 2022
A rough end to the trading week for both US stocks and bonds, worsening a month where the classic “diversified” 60/40 portfolio is experiencing its steepest monthly loss since 2022. #economy #markets #bonds #stocks #investing #investors
WTI Oil Hovers Near $100 per Barrel
Among other notable price moves today, WTI oil is trading around $100 a barrel. #economy #matkets #oil #energy
US 10‑Year Yield Climbs to Over 4.40%
Of note: Up 7 basis points so far today, the yield on the US 10-year government bond is currently trading above 4.40%. #economy #markets #bonds
Oil Prices Juggle Conflicting US, Iran, Israel Headlines
This volatile oil price remains at the mercy of a flood of (often-contradictory) headlines emanating from the three warring parties — US, Iran, and Israel. #economy #oil #markets #energy #middleeastwar
Travelers Praise TSA, Blame Congress Amid Airport Chaos
Lots of interesting conversations as the line snaked around the airport terminal. Judging from the small sample in this one-hour wait, there was an interesting mix of resignation, anger, anxiety, and camaraderie. The most common reactions were gratitude for the TSA colleagues...
US 15‑point War Plan Lifts Stocks, Drops Yields
The heavy flow of War-related news continues this morning, with reports ranging from corroborative to contradictory. On a net basis—and mainly reflecting news that the US has proposed a “15-point plan to end the war”—bond yields and oil prices are down...
Markets Revise Expectations for Price‑Stability‑Focused Central Banks
These FT charts illustrate the shift in market expectations for policy actions by the world’s major central banks. The change has been particularly striking for central banks with a single mandate (of price stability). #economy #markets #centralbanks @financialtimes
Oil Shock Could Trigger Bond Market Turmoil, Warns FT
The Financial Times’ Katie Martin: “It is hard, in that environment, to pick the market moves that really matter. This week’s wild ride in UK government bonds is, I think, one of them. It is an early warning sign of...
Week of High-Stakes Events Deepens Economic Fragility
Here are the links to the weekly look at the global economy and markets—a discussion of a week characterized by both high-stakes developments and an increasingly fragile economic and financial outlook. https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7441107748030693376/ https://open.substack.com/pub/mohamedelerian/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-7d1?r=33wip&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true #economy #markets #middleeastwar
US Markets Hold Up as Global Stocks Falter Amid War
This WSJ chart comparing the decline in US and international stock markets reflects the underlying economic reality: While the global economy is reeling from the Middle East War, the US is relatively better positioned. This is especially true for energy where the...
Middle East War Expands Threat to Global Supply Chains
This, from Bloomberg, illustrates how the Middle East War threatens a widening set of global supply chains. (On Monday, the FT is scheduled to post my column on a separate global risk that has yet to receive sufficient attention: the likely...
War Damages 39 Energy Sites Across Nine Nations
The New York Times on one of the major economic effects of the War: “At least 39 energy oil refineries, natural gas fields and other energy sites in nine countries have been damaged since the United States and Israel began...
US Bond Yields Surge to Highest Levels Since 2023
Bloomberg on the selloff in the US bond market: “Not since 2023, when the central bank was still lifting rates, has the two-year yield risen so much above the Fed’s rate ceiling. On Friday, five-year yields surpassed 4% for the first...
War Turns Energy Shock Into Long-Term Economic Threat
Consensus is shifting, and rightly so: This third week of the war has fueled a shift from a short-term energy disruption to long-term structural damage. With that, the broader fallout—also marked by the non-linear risks associated with tipping points and multiple equilibrium...
Bond Yields Surge Globally, Curve Bears Flattening
Global bond yields continue to climb: the UK 10-year has touched 5%, while the German Bund has crossed 3% and the US stands at 4.36%. Compounding the warning signs for the global economy, this comes amid an ongoing bear flattening...
Oil Prices Swing Amid Middle East Supply Uncertainty
It’s been another rollercoaster day in the oil market with both benchmarks trading in a wide range (CNBC charts below). Between the remarks from officials in Washington DC and those out of Israel — both following the attacks on energy infrastructure...
Rising Energy Costs Spur Savings Amid Global Supply Risks
For the energy-secure US, damaged infrastructure due to the War means higher prices. In some other countries, however, the challenge is twofold: higher costs and worries about genuine supply shortfalls in the months ahead. It’s encouraging a growing number of them to...
RBA Hike Hints at Tighter Path for Single‑mandate Banks
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked interest rates by 25 basis points. Markets suspect this telegraphs what's on the cards for other single-mandate central banks, such as the Bank of England and the ECB. While a hike isn't...
Amanpour Interview: Iran, Oil
The link to this afternoon’s conversation with Christiane Amanpour. Thanks so much, Christiane, for having me on your show. https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/16/tv/video/amanpour-el-erian-trump-iran-hormuz-economy #economy @cnn #middleeastwar #oil #inflation #growth @pbs @camanpour
Global Economy Faces Growing Complexity and Uncertainty
Please find below the links to my weekly look at what has become a much more complicated and uncertain situation for the global economy and markets. linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-look-global-economy-markets-mohamed-el-erian-shp3e/?trackingId=vXKBwDM3QxqdFHY2kfbOrQ%3D%3D&lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_detail_base%3BXcJdDTIXTiGfbxaVzWx6xA%3D%3D https://open.substack.com/pub/mohamedelerian/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-372?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web #economy
Gas Prices Surge 23% Since War Began
The @wsj on one of the most sensitive prices across the economic, political and social landscape: “Average regular gasoline prices nationally were around $3.68 a gallon on Saturday, according to AAA, a 23% increase from before the war started at the...
Revised Q4 GDP Signals Slowing US Economy Amid Stagflation Risks
Here’s the Financial Times on today's revised data on US fourth-quarter GDP. Similar to the consumer spending figures also released today (please see previous post), Q4 GDP growth now suggests a less dynamic American economy in the run-up to the...
Consumer Spending Slows, Core Inflation Stays Stubbornly High
US economic data released today suggests that, leading up to the Middle East War, hitherto robust consumer spending had begun to soften. Meanwhile, inflation — as measured by core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s favorite measure — remained sticky, holding well...
UK 10‑Year Yields Top 4.7% Amid Oil Surge
UK borrowing costs are on the rise once more this morning. Per the Bloomberg chart below, yields on 10-year British government bonds are again above 4.70% as the war in the Middle East pushes Brent oil north of $95 once again. This...
Oil Market Sees a Year's Activity in One Day
John Authers: “Years go by with less activity in the oil market than we have witnessed in just the first day of this week.” #economy #oil #markets #volatility
Global Economy Faces More Violent, Frequent Shocks
Thank you, Andrew, Becky, and Joe for the conversation on Squawk Box this morning. FYI, here is one of the clips... https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/09/the-global-economy-is-subject-to-more-violent-and-frequent-shocks-says-mohamed-el-erian.html ... and here is the full interview: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/03/09/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-allianz-chief-economic-advisor-mohamed-el-erian.html #economy #markets @cnbc #oil #middleeastwar
Markets Price Rate Hikes as Central Banks Stay Hawkish
On central banks: Judging from the shift in market probabilities of interest rate actions, the markets now believe that single-mandate central banks (that is, price stability), such as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, are in no mood...