Mohamed El‑Erian
Macro economist/strategist; comments on macro funds’ positioning in commodities within broader policy and growth context.
New Fed Chair Seeks Rate Cuts, Data Pushes Back
From the Wall Street Journal article, "The Economy Kevin Warsh Is Inheriting Is Not the One He Wanted: The next Fed chair wants lower rates. See the data that might make that impossible." #economy #markets #federalreserve #inflation @wsj
Brent Crude Surpasses $110 on US‑Iran Tensions
Brent crude starts the trading week above $110 a barrel in Asia amid stalled US-Iran talks and a fresh set of warnings to Tehran from President Trump. (CNBC table below.) #economy #oil #energy #markets @cnbc
Treasury Sells $25bn 30-Year Bonds at 5.0% Yield
From the Financial Times: "The Treasury department issued $25bn of new 30-year bonds on Wednesday, with the high yield at auction reaching 5.046 per cent." #economy #markets #debt #bonds #ust @financialtimes
Bond Market Stays Silent Despite Scorching US PPI
One of the notable developments this morning is the "dog that didn't bark": the lack of a significant bond market reaction to a scorching US PPI print. The move in government bond yields has been de minimis, as shown in the...
U.S. Inflation Stubbornly Above 2% for Six Years
Crafting headlines is notoriously challenging, particularly when trying to balance competing considerations and objectives. With that important qualification in mind, it is improtant to note that America’s inflation challenge isn’t just about the gas pump. The economy is now in its...
WTI Crude Reclaims $100, Brent Near $110
Meanwhile, in the energy markets, WTI crude has reclaimed the $100 level while Brent moves closer to $110. (Data from CNBC.) #economy #markets #energy #oil
UK Political Uncertainty Drives Gilts Yield to 5.10%
Uncertain British politics = another step up in UK government bond yields. (This morning's selloff is sizeable, pushing the 10-year yield to 5.10%.) #economy #Markets #Gilts #UKEconomy #bonds #uk
Middle East War Could Cost US Households Billions
From the Financial Times article seeking to estimate the economic cost of the Middle East war to US households, businesses, and the federal budget. #economy #markets #middleeastwar @financialtimes
Copper Hits Record High on Data‑Center Demand, Mine Disruption
From the Wall Street Journal: "Copper prices notched a new record high Monday, rising on strong demand for data-center construction, supply disruptions at one of the world's largest mines and surging input costs." #economy #markets #inflation #copper @wsj
Inflation Data This Week Crucial, Says
A clip from this morning's conversation on CNBC with Andrew Ross Sorkin, Becky Quick, and Joe Kernen. Thank you for having me on Squawk Box. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/05/11/the-inflation-numbers-are-going-to-be-absolutely-critical-this-week-says-mohamed-el-erian.html #economy #markets
China's Inflation Surprises Ahead of US Data Week
Per CNBC below, a global week of inflation data kicked off with hotter-than-expected Chinese CPI and PPI figures. This comes ahead of the highly anticipated US inflation data later this week. #economy #markets #inflation @cnbc
Markets Surge Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Key Economic Data
Please find below the links to my weekly look at the global economy and markets. It's a busy week ahead: As equity markets scale record heights and the Strait of Hormuz blockades continue amid geopolitical instability and supply-side disruptions, look also this...
Oil Inventories Plummet, Raising Spike and Shortage Risks
Bloomberg: “The world has burned through oilinventories at a record speed as the Iran war throttles flows from the Persian Gulf… The rapidly shrinking stockpiles mean that the risk of even more extreme price spikes and shortages is getting ever-closer, leaving governments...
Gas Prices Stay Above $4.50, Diesel Near Records
Heading into the peak U.S. driving season, the latest AAA data show regular gas (petrol) prices holding above $4.50 a gallon and diesel prices near record highs. #economy #markets #gas
Pre‑Trump China Talks Spark Hope, but Doubts Linger
The timing is notable, coming just days before President Trump’s trip to China. Some hope these talks will foster more constructive relations on trade, security, and technology. Others see little chance of breakthroughs, given the challenges in this bilateral relationship. #economy...
Wall Street Dubs Hormuz Closure “NACHO”
According to CNBC, Wall Street has a new acronym: NACHO, or “Not A Chance Hormuz Opens.” #economy #markets @cnbc
Brent Crude Slides Below $100 on US‑Iran Deal Hopes
Good morning. Brent crude is currently trading below $100 per barrel on hopes for a US-Iran deal (CNBC chart). #oil #energy #economy #markets
Powell Defended Fed Independence, yet Made Costly Mistakes
Just published: My take on Jerome Powell’s complicated legacy--one of resilience in defending Fed independence, weighed against missed opportunities to enhance effectiveness and costly errors beyond just monetary policy. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/powell-legacy-fed-defender-but-also-policy-mistakes-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2026-05 #economy #federalreserve #markets @prosyn
Financial Stability Depends on Global Collective Resilience
From the Financial Times column “We must be mindful of the risks of private credit,” by Andrew Bailey (Governor of the Bank of England and Chair of the Financial Stability Board): “We must remember that financial stability is a global...
UK Gilts Rise on Oil Dip Amid US‑Iran Deal Hopes
A better morning for UK gilts as oil prices fall sharply after a US media report that America and Iran are “very close” to a deal. While the drop in yields is welcome, expect continued volatility in the days ahead, driven...
Price Shock Escalates to Broad Inflation, Phases I‑II Confirmed
Remember my four-phase framework for the economic and financial fallout of the Middle East War? This latest from the Financial Times is an illustration of Phases I and II in action: what begins as a narrow price shock evolves into...
UK 10‑Year Yield Premium Hits Growth, Treasury
The yield gap between UK and German 10-year government bonds is now nearly two full percentage points ( Bloomberg data below). While global yields are up across the board, the economic implications differ: This "UK premium" creates a bigger headwind for domestic...
Bhutan: Where Kindness Meets Timeless Harmony
Neither words nor photos can truly do justice to the immense magic of Bhutan. Beyond the breathtaking landscapes and vibrant culture, it is the feeling of the place that stays with you. It is a land of profound kindness and quiet reflection—one...
Central Banks Grapple with Massive Inflation‑Growth Dilemma
From Jeff Sommer's article, "The World’s Central Banks Are Wrestling With a Gigantic Problem." #economy #markets #centralbanks @nytimes #inflation #growth
Oil Crisis Deepens: Shrinking Stocks Guarantee Higher Prices
From the article in The Economist on "The crisis in oil markets will get bigger before it goes away: As stocks dwindle, further price rises are inevitable." #economy #oil #energy #markets @theeconomist
Transport Resilience Essential, Yet Costly and Complex
According to the latest IMF blog post, "policies that strengthen the resilience of transport networks are now central to sustaining growth and protecting livelihoods." My take: While the need for resilience became undeniable during the pandemic, it then collided with the...
US Stocks Surge to Best Month Since 2020
From the FT article, “US stocks hit record highs in Wall Street’s best month since 2020.” #economy #markets #stocks #investing #investors
UK Gilt Yields Drop Sharply on Oil, Yet Remain High
UK Gilts and Oil Pricea The "good news" for the UK today is that it's government bond market’s hypersensitivity (high beta) to oil prices is finally providing relief on the way down: As shown in the Bloomberg table below, the yield on...
Oil Prices Swing $15 in 48 Hours, Threatening Economy
Crazy price volatility in the oil market: In less than 48 hours, Brent crude has swung from a local low of $111 to a high of $126 and is currently trading at around $116 (Bloomberg chart below). This level of instability is...
U.S. Gas Prices Top $4.20, Set to Surge
Pain at the pump -- consequential and will get more so: The national average for a gallon of regular gas (petrol) in the US has surged again ... to over $4.20 (AAA table below). It’s almost impossible to imagine prices won't climb...
Yen Breaches 160/$: Markets Test Policy Limits
It's not just oil, UK yields, etc... In fact, the pace is starting to feel a little relentless as markets blow through what I regard as various "pay attention" levels. This includes the breach of 160 ¥/$ (CNBC chart below)....
Oil Climbs Above $100 as US Pressures Iran
Oil prices are higher again as the US doubles down on Iran: With news that America's "blockade of the blockade" is now targeting Iranian ports longer-term, WTI oil has followed Brent in trading above $100 (CNBC table below). #economy #oil #markets
AI Review Flags Alarming Surge in UK Yields
FWIW, this AI-generated review of the X universe over the last 24 hours takes my "understated" post on UK yields to a much more alarming level as it draws on other information in its database. #economy #markets #uk
Iran Stockpiles Oil as US Blockade Stalls Hormuz Shipments
According to the WSJ, "Iran is scrambling to find new ways to store its oil, hoping to avoid a crippling production shutdown as a U.S. naval blockade bottles up its exports and negotiations to end the war remain deadlocked." This coincides...
Universal Outlets: The Missing Perk for International Travelers
It’s 2026. Why is the "travel adapter hunt" still a thing? Dear Hotels: please find below the ultimate guest perk. If you’re renovating, please ditch the single-region outlets and go universal. It’s a small detail that makes a massive difference for your international...
US Stocks Outshine Europe on Fundamentals and Technicals
Regarding these latest charts from the Financial Times: The question isn't whether US equity markets are better positioned than Europe to weather the impact of the war. Between superior fundamentals and stronger technicals, the US clearly holds the edge—valuation gaps notwithstanding. The...
Brent Surpasses $100 as VP Vance Cancels Islamabad Trip
Brent oil is back above $100 after US Vice President JD Vance called off his Islamabad trip. This follows Iran’s refusal to join talks there to negotiate an end to the War or, at the minimum, extend the ceasefire, which is...
Asian Economies Highly Vulnerable to Middle East War Fallout
You’ve heard me warn about the vulnerability of several Asian economies to the fallout from the Middle East War, though I haven’t gone as far as this latest analysis in the NYT. #economy #markets #asia @nytimes #middleeastwar
Iran War Fuels Persistent US Inflation Ahead of Midterms
A warning from the Financial Time (which has economic, political and social implications): "war in Iran has unleashed a torrent of inflation in the US that economists warn will linger long after the conflict ends, squeezing Americans ahead of November’s midterm...
Global Economy Splits Into Diverging Realities This Week
FYI, the links to my weekly look at the global economy and markets, including what has evolved into a tale of two (if not more) realities. https://open.substack.com/pub/mohamedelerian/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-550?r=33wip&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-look-global-economy-markets-mohamed-el-erian-w4wbe/?lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_feed%3Btfqi0xMNTveCEbORqFBpMw%3D%3D #economy #markets
Iran Reasserts Military Control Over Strait of Hormuz
A reminder that the path toward an orderly de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East remains fraught with challenges: Per the statement carried by Iranian media and reported by The Guardian, "...control of the strait of Hormuz has reverted to its...
S&P Sets New Records as Oil, Yields Stay Elevated
With an impressive week nowunder its belt, the S&P has done more than just reclaim its pre-war levels. It has registered multiple record highs. Interestingly, both oil prices and government bond yields remain elevated above their own pre-war levels. #economy #markets
Strait of Hormuz Reopens—Durability and Ship Commitment Key
The reported reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is undoubtedly a welcome relief for the global economy. Needless to say, its true impact depends on the durability of this reopening, which will require sustained confidence-building measures from all three...
Oil Price Plunge Lifts Stocks and Bonds
Oil prices just dropped sharply in reaction to this Bloomberg headline, boosting both stock market indices and bond prices (i.e., lower yields). #economy #markets #energy #oil
Jobless Claims Confirm US Labor Market Resilience
Weekly jobless claims are perhaps the best real-time pulse check on US jobs, and this morning, they’re signaling a continued resilient labor market. (Bloomberg headline below.) #economy #jobs #employment #markets
Middle East War Amplifies All Global Economic Woes
Reading between the lines, the message of today's IMF flagship report is sobering: Virtually every challenge facing the global economy is poised to intensify due to the fallout of the Middle East War. This includes Insufficient growth Burdensome cost of...
IMF Slashes UK Growth Forecast, Flags Stagnation
Among the G7, the IMF’s outlook for the UK is likely to attract attention due to: • A Sharp Growth Downgrade : 2026 GDP forecast has been slashed to 0.8%, risking "stall speed." • Persistent Inflation: The hope that inflation would return...
IMF Renames Baseline to “Reference Forecast” Amid Uncertainty
This is the usual summary table from the IMF’s latest WEO. Notably, the Fund has swapped its usual "baseline" terminology for a “reference forecast” paired with alternative scenarios. This shift highlights today's volatile global landscape, characterized by high uncertainty and disparity,...
US PPI Inflation Slows to 0.5%, Easing Fed Pressure
This will come as a relief to many, including the Federal Reserve: Monthly US PPI inflation was 0.5% in March, less than half the consensus forecast. America's diversified economy and its energy security are again distinguishing its economic performance from much of...
UK Bond Market Losers Identified, Risks Explained, Solutions Offered
Posted earlier today: FYI, here’s the link to my column on who lost the UK bond market—the what, why, and so what... and also what to do about it: https://www.ft.com/content/4b258818-4935-4507-b554-bccc5fd05b66 #economy #markets #bonds #uk @financialtimes