Noah Smith

Noah Smith

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Economics writer (Noahpinion); analysis across growth, trade, industrial policy, inflation, and tech.

China’s Loan‑driven Industrial Policy Breeds Debt, Few Champions
SocialApr 15, 2026

China’s Loan‑driven Industrial Policy Breeds Debt, Few Champions

Most of China's industrial policy is in the form of bank loans, not subsidies. Yes, you can lend to 100 companies, and 2 survive, and then you have 2 national champions. But you also have a mountain of bad debt on...

By Noah Smith
User Growth Is Genuine, Not Just Bots
SocialApr 15, 2026

User Growth Is Genuine, Not Just Bots

Oh yeah this app's user growth totally isn't just bots. It's all very real human beings with interesting things to say https://t.co/XE2VNIpybV

By Noah Smith
OpenAI’s AGI Mission Aims to Render Humans Unemployable
SocialApr 14, 2026

OpenAI’s AGI Mission Aims to Render Humans Unemployable

The problem here isn't just PR. The people who work at OpenAI think that the *goal* of their work is to make human beings unemployable. The corporate mission statement says it explicitly in its definition of "AGI".

By Noah Smith
AI Labs Have Long Aimed to Replace Human Workers
SocialApr 13, 2026

AI Labs Have Long Aimed to Replace Human Workers

Agreed. But people need to understand, the idea of making human workers obsolete has been the explicit, stated *goal* of top AI labs -- and many AI researchers -- for many many years. It's not just marketing.

By Noah Smith
AI Firms' AGI Mission Embeds Human Obsolescence
SocialApr 13, 2026

AI Firms' AGI Mission Embeds Human Obsolescence

It isn't just a narrative. It's the mission statement. AI companies have defined "AGI" as AI that can replace rather than augment workers. And their corporate missions are to create "AGI". The notion of human obsolescence is baked into the...

By Noah Smith
AI's Future May Concentrate Power and Wealth
SocialApr 13, 2026

AI's Future May Concentrate Power and Wealth

Until recently, it looked like AI might be a hyper-competitive, low-margin industry like solar or airlines. But now it looks like a few companies might dominate. That could have big implications for inequality -- not just of wealth, but of...

By Noah Smith
Top AI Experts Assign 25% Extinction Risk to AI
SocialApr 13, 2026

Top AI Experts Assign 25% Extinction Risk to AI

Hmm. But leading AI figures give pretty high p(doom) numbers. Dario says he thinks AI has a 25% chance of causing human extinction or something similar. https://t.co/p6cAl7HAny

By Noah Smith
AI CEOs Could Become Future Global Emperors
SocialApr 13, 2026

AI CEOs Could Become Future Global Emperors

In 20 or 50 years, will the heads of AI companies be de facto emperors of the world? https://t.co/dWJTBvXdWy

By Noah Smith
U.S. Loses War to Iran for First Time in Centuries
SocialApr 12, 2026

U.S. Loses War to Iran for First Time in Centuries

America is the first country in over two centuries to lose a war to Iran, thanks to Trump

By Noah Smith
Improve Cities, Boost Housing Support Across America
SocialApr 11, 2026

Improve Cities, Boost Housing Support Across America

My thoughts on what America actually needs to do in order to make its cities nicer and increase support for housing construction: https://t.co/8adistZlJY

By Noah Smith
Plain, Affordable Homes Beat Fancy Designs for Livability
SocialApr 11, 2026

Plain, Affordable Homes Beat Fancy Designs for Livability

Japanese residential neigborhoods have cheap, plain architecture but are amazing places to live. Texas builds tons of housing even though it's all boring boxes. Fancy architecture is cool, but it's not the key to building more. https://t.co/8adistYNUq

By Noah Smith
Improve City Livability, Not Copy European Architecture
SocialApr 11, 2026

Improve City Livability, Not Copy European Architecture

I don't think borrowing architecture from Europe will move the needle on American support for housing construction. Instead, we just have to make our cities better places to live. https://t.co/8adistZlJY

By Noah Smith
Japan Legalizes Most Forms of Sex Work
SocialApr 11, 2026

Japan Legalizes Most Forms of Sex Work

I see the rest of the world has now discovered that most forms of sex work are legal in Japan 🫩

By Noah Smith
Hyperlocal Control, Not Aesthetic Mandates, Drives Housing Growth
SocialApr 10, 2026

Hyperlocal Control, Not Aesthetic Mandates, Drives Housing Growth

I don't think mandating "pretty" buildings is going to get much more housing built. What WILL get more housing built, I think, is hyperlocal control. https://t.co/rgDQYAp9h0

By Noah Smith