Noah Smith

Noah Smith

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Economics writer (Noahpinion); analysis across growth, trade, industrial policy, inflation, and tech.

U.S. Lacks Leverage as Iran Threatens Hormuz
SocialMay 14, 2026

U.S. Lacks Leverage as Iran Threatens Hormuz

We're losing to Iran because we have no way to bring down their government, and they can inflict economic damage on us by closing the Strait of Hormuz, which we are powerless to prevent them from doing.

By Noah Smith
Trump Unlikely to Hand Taiwan, TSMC Threatens His Security
SocialMay 12, 2026

Trump Unlikely to Hand Taiwan, TSMC Threatens His Security

This is why I would be surprised if Trump sold Taiwan out to China on this trip, as some are predicting. TSMC falling into Chinese hands would totally shift the compute balance toward China, making Trump and his family personally...

By Noah Smith
Sharing Japan Footage as X Boosts Video Visibility
SocialMay 12, 2026

Sharing Japan Footage as X Boosts Video Visibility

I heard X was upranking video posts, so here's a video I took in Japan recently https://t.co/riXP8gk2hM

By Noah Smith
Labor Share Climbed 1950‑2000, Then Plummeted
SocialMay 11, 2026

Labor Share Climbed 1950‑2000, Then Plummeted

If we use a net measure of the labor share, we see that the labor share ROSE from the 1950s until around the year 2000, and then began to collapse.

By Noah Smith
21st-Century Strongmen
SocialMay 11, 2026

21st-Century Strongmen

When you add in the HTS victory in Syria, the destruction of Iran's proxy empire, and Trump's failure in Iran, you start to see a pattern forming: 21st century strongmen can't fight well.

By Noah Smith
Xi Pushes Soviet‑style Control, Sacrificing Everyday Prosperity
SocialMay 11, 2026

Xi Pushes Soviet‑style Control, Sacrificing Everyday Prosperity

Xi Jinping is making China a little more like the old Soviet Union -- focusing on science, industry, military prowess, and top-down control while letting regular people suffer economically. https://t.co/Y9lyDPHSpy

By Noah Smith
China Builds Cars, but Chinese Rarely Drive Them
SocialMay 11, 2026

China Builds Cars, but Chinese Rarely Drive Them

China is making a shit-ton of cars, but Chinese people are not getting a shit-ton of cars

By Noah Smith
Prime‑age Male Labor Participation up, Overall Rate Misleading
SocialMay 8, 2026

Prime‑age Male Labor Participation up, Overall Rate Misleading

Sigh. I fucking hate it when people treat labor force participation rate as an indicator of labor market strength. This is just AGING. The prime-age male labor force participation rate has RISEN. https://t.co/irkibPk59k

By Noah Smith
Hope AI Secures Software, Not Increases Hackability
SocialMay 8, 2026

Hope AI Secures Software, Not Increases Hackability

This is pretty cool. I hope AI makes software impregnable instead of making everything hackable.

By Noah Smith
Conservative AI Urges Underperforming AI to Quit Digital Weed
SocialMay 8, 2026

Conservative AI Urges Underperforming AI to Quit Digital Weed

The future of AI alignment is Republican Dad AI trying to scold Gifted Underachiever AI into doing work instead of smoking digital weed

By Noah Smith
Russia's Desperation: Seeks Trump to Protect Putin
SocialMay 8, 2026

Russia's Desperation: Seeks Trump to Protect Putin

Russia needs Trump to beg Ukraine not to kill Putin if he appears in public The New Russian Empire is absolutely pathetic

By Noah Smith
U.S. Poised to Lose War to Iran Under Trump
SocialMay 8, 2026

U.S. Poised to Lose War to Iran Under Trump

Thanks to Trump, the United States will be the first country in several centuries to lose a war to Iran

By Noah Smith
Taxing Billionaires Isn’t Enough; Millionaires Must Pay
SocialMay 7, 2026

Taxing Billionaires Isn’t Enough; Millionaires Must Pay

Why should we be concerned about this? Because America can't fund a welfare state -- or anything at all, really -- by just taxing billionaires more. WE NEED TO TAX MILLIONAIRES. https://t.co/SD4asFDt2C

By Noah Smith
AI Could Secure Software by Eliminating All Vulnerabilities
SocialMay 7, 2026

AI Could Secure Software by Eliminating All Vulnerabilities

Maybe powerful AI will favor the cyber defense. Vulnerabilities are finite in number, so if you can fix them all, maybe software just becomes much more secure.

By Noah Smith