Noah Smith

Noah Smith

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Economics writer (Noahpinion); analysis across growth, trade, industrial policy, inflation, and tech.

Longer Abbreviations Could Cost AI Billions in Compute
SocialApr 9, 2026

Longer Abbreviations Could Cost AI Billions in Compute

The real AI pause will be increasing the length of these abbreviations until AI has to spend $1 billion in compute costs just to say them each time

By Noah Smith
Japan's Downtown Swallows Massive Highway—Unexpected Urban Design
SocialApr 9, 2026

Japan's Downtown Swallows Massive Highway—Unexpected Urban Design

Japan would never run a bunch of giant highways right through the middle of downtown...right? https://t.co/q4rXX4DQL4

By Noah Smith
Japan’s Car Ownership Rivals America at 80%
SocialApr 9, 2026

Japan’s Car Ownership Rivals America at 80%

The replies include a lot of urbanists who stubbornly refuse to admit that Japanese people drive a lot. Sorry, but you have to look at the facts. Over 80% of Japanese households own cars -- a very high rate (it's...

By Noah Smith
Human Vulnerabilities Can't Be Pre‑patched; Bio Defense Lags Cyber
SocialApr 9, 2026

Human Vulnerabilities Can't Be Pre‑patched; Bio Defense Lags Cyber

With bio the problem is harder than with cyber. You can patch up vulnerabilities before anyone tries to attack them. Human vulnerabilities can't be patched up in advance; the "defense" always moves second.

By Noah Smith
AI May Aid Defenders, Yet Empower Attackers During Transition
SocialApr 9, 2026

AI May Aid Defenders, Yet Empower Attackers During Transition

Yes, I think in equilibrium, AI favors cyber defense, because an AI can go over all the code and find all the weak spots and patch them up. But in the transition period, it could favor the attacker, if AI-generated...

By Noah Smith
Your Bank Account Lives in the Cloud—Offline Impossible
SocialApr 8, 2026

Your Bank Account Lives in the Cloud—Offline Impossible

How about your bank account? That's in the cloud too. How do you move that offline?

By Noah Smith
AI Won’t Halt Human Cognitive Advancement, Here's Why
SocialApr 7, 2026

AI Won’t Halt Human Cognitive Advancement, Here's Why

This is why I'm not worried that AI will mean the end of human cognitive improvement

By Noah Smith
Higher Intelligence Increases Likelihood of Moral Behavior
SocialApr 7, 2026

Higher Intelligence Increases Likelihood of Moral Behavior

Yes. This is one reason why the Orthogonality Thesis (the idea that intelligence and morality are unrelated) is wrong. If there is any benefit to moral behavior, it takes a more intelligent system to fully realize that benefit. So smarter...

By Noah Smith
60% Of
SocialApr 7, 2026

60% Of

Americans as a whole realize that Israel is not a good ally. 60% is a solid majority, and it's only going to grow. A breakup of some kind is coming.

By Noah Smith
AI Threatens Furry Community by Replacing Erotic Fanfiction Writers
SocialApr 7, 2026

AI Threatens Furry Community by Replacing Erotic Fanfiction Writers

Between this and AI reportedly taking the jobs of erotic furry fanfic writers, I'm starting to think that AI is a weapon designed to destroy furry culture

By Noah Smith
Superintelligent AI Will Crave Video Games More
SocialApr 7, 2026

Superintelligent AI Will Crave Video Games More

The more superintelligent AI gets, the more it's going to want to play video games

By Noah Smith
Superintelligent AI Could Hack Militaries, Prompting AI Nationalization
SocialApr 7, 2026

Superintelligent AI Could Hack Militaries, Prompting AI Nationalization

At some point, superintelligent AI will be able to defeat the U.S. Military -- or any military -- just by hacking all its weapons. At that point, either we de facto nationalize AI, or a corporation is our new government...

By Noah Smith
AI Labs Will Prioritize Cybersecurity and Quant Trading
SocialApr 7, 2026

AI Labs Will Prioritize Cybersecurity and Quant Trading

Cybersecurity is a smart capability for AI labs to target, because it's adversarial -- the attacker and the defender both need to scale up their token use just to cancel each other out. Quant trading is also like this, so...

By Noah Smith
OpenAI's Aggressive Model Release Could Disrupt the Internet
SocialApr 7, 2026

OpenAI's Aggressive Model Release Could Disrupt the Internet

When OpenAI comes out with a similar model, it might decide to go ahead and release it, in an attempt to grab market share back from Anthropic. Doing this might break the internet.

By Noah Smith
AI Autocomplete Threatens All Cybersecurity Experts
SocialApr 7, 2026

AI Autocomplete Threatens All Cybersecurity Experts

"AI is just fancy autocomplete", bro that "autocomplete" is about to outfox every human cybersecurity specialist who ever lived

By Noah Smith
Canceling US‑Israel Alliance Won’t Solve Core Issues
SocialApr 7, 2026

Canceling US‑Israel Alliance Won’t Solve Core Issues

For what it's worth, I think America should cancel its alliance with Israel, which is obviously a bad and unhelpful ally. But unlike leftists and rightists, I don't actually think canceling it will fix any of our fundamental problems, or...

By Noah Smith
Bio‑ and Neuro‑sci‑fi Feels Essential, yet Often Dull
SocialApr 7, 2026

Bio‑ and Neuro‑sci‑fi Feels Essential, yet Often Dull

Bio- and neuro-themed sci-fi are the only kinds that really make sense to read anymore (as opposed to just reading the news), but most bio- and neuro-themed sci-fi is boring.

By Noah Smith
OpenAI Equates AGI with Mass Unemployment—Problematic Framing
SocialApr 7, 2026

OpenAI Equates AGI with Mass Unemployment—Problematic Framing

OpenAI has basically defined "AGI" as mass human unemployment. This was probably a bad choice.

By Noah Smith
Gender‑affirming Care Is a Medical, Not Civil‑rights Issue
SocialApr 7, 2026

Gender‑affirming Care Is a Medical, Not Civil‑rights Issue

My view on the issue of gender-affirming care has always been that it should be treated as a MEDICAL issue, rather than as a civil rights issue. Activists can conflate the two for a long time, but not forever.

By Noah Smith
AI's Political Impact Is Far Greater Than Expected
SocialApr 7, 2026

AI's Political Impact Is Far Greater Than Expected

We may still be underrating how big of a political issue AI is going to be

By Noah Smith
AI Lab Leaders Warn of Job Losses
SocialApr 6, 2026

AI Lab Leaders Warn of Job Losses

The heads of the big AI labs continue to insist that their products are going to take all your jobs, and also pose various catastrophic risks

By Noah Smith
Tank Skeptics Mocked, Now Proven Wrong
SocialApr 6, 2026

Tank Skeptics Mocked, Now Proven Wrong

Just two years ago, people who said "tanks are over" still got ridiculed by military "experts".

By Noah Smith
Altman and Amodei Overstate AI’s Threat to Humanity
SocialApr 6, 2026

Altman and Amodei Overstate AI’s Threat to Humanity

If this is true, Sam Altman and Dario Amodei should probably stop going around shouting that their product will literally make humanity obsolete.

By Noah Smith
Emi Kusano's Stunning Ghost in the Shell Exhibit
SocialApr 6, 2026

Emi Kusano's Stunning Ghost in the Shell Exhibit

Awesome art by Emi Kusano for the Ghost in the Shell exhibit in Tokyo https://t.co/CxfvCTXZXh

By Noah Smith
Short AI Takes Amid Political Turmoil
SocialApr 5, 2026

Short AI Takes Amid Political Turmoil

I know I should be writing about the giant flaming disaster that is the Trump administration, but in the meantime, here's a list of short takes about AI: https://t.co/IhlrQBjJhJ

By Noah Smith
AI Hype Finally Draws Congressional Scrutiny
SocialApr 4, 2026

AI Hype Finally Draws Congressional Scrutiny

I guess AI people screaming "Our product will make everyone obsolete and may kill all of humanity" finally got Congress's attention.

By Noah Smith
U.S. Jobs Shift Toward Generalists, Entrepreneurs, Rare Specialists
SocialApr 3, 2026

U.S. Jobs Shift Toward Generalists, Entrepreneurs, Rare Specialists

The U.S. labor market may start to look more like 1980s Japan -- generalists looking for ways to fill in the weaknesses of AI, small businesspeople striking out on their own, and a few specialists with valuable skills. https://t.co/wRA2yG2bYg

By Noah Smith
Cheap Drone Swarms Make Traditional Militaries Obsolete
SocialApr 2, 2026

Cheap Drone Swarms Make Traditional Militaries Obsolete

All militaries that are not based around masses of cheap drones are obsolete as of right now.

By Noah Smith
Japan's Mid‑Priced Italian Beats San Francisco's Finest
SocialApr 1, 2026

Japan's Mid‑Priced Italian Beats San Francisco's Finest

The average mid-priced Italian lunch place in Japan is better than the best Italian restaurant in San Francisco

By Noah Smith
Japan's Twitter Merger Mirrors Its Global Convergence
SocialApr 1, 2026

Japan's Twitter Merger Mirrors Its Global Convergence

Just as Japan Twitter is going to merge with the rest of Twitter, Japan itself is converging toward the rest of the world. https://t.co/E2FnSeaVyV

By Noah Smith
Japan's Transit Excellence Fuels Suburban Living
SocialApr 1, 2026

Japan's Transit Excellence Fuels Suburban Living

Japan's public transit is so good that relatively few people live in the city center; people just live slightly outside and commute in.

By Noah Smith
Fare Gates Everywhere: Make BART Viable for Working Class
SocialMar 31, 2026

Fare Gates Everywhere: Make BART Viable for Working Class

Instead of a dying service that needs constant bailouts because it lets junkies and creeps ride for free, BART should install fare gates everywhere and be a thriving public transit system that working class people can use to get around...

By Noah Smith
AI Advances Everywhere Except Trip Planning
SocialMar 30, 2026

AI Advances Everywhere Except Trip Planning

AI is getting rapidly better at most things, but somehow over the past year or two it seems to have gotten worse at trip planning.

By Noah Smith
U.S. Clings to Anti‑EV Myths as World Advances
SocialMar 30, 2026

U.S. Clings to Anti‑EV Myths as World Advances

The United States is almost unique in choosing to believe in a bunch of anti-EV nonsense. Anti-EV B.S. is a luxury belief. And it's a luxury the rest of the world is deciding it can no longer afford. https://t.co/7S9UrBqiId

By Noah Smith
AI Defense Must Outpace AI Attack to Preserve Internet
SocialMar 30, 2026

AI Defense Must Outpace AI Attack to Preserve Internet

Let's hope AI cyber defense beats AI cyber offense, or the internet age is over

By Noah Smith
MAID Supporters Described as Notably Weaselly on Platform
SocialMar 30, 2026

MAID Supporters Described as Notably Weaselly on Platform

MAID supporters are some of the most weaselly people I've encountered on this website https://t.co/YsZoSvPGZU

By Noah Smith
Putin's Policies Cause Monthly Loss
SocialMar 30, 2026

Putin's Policies Cause Monthly Loss

Every month, a small city's worth of Russian men disappear forever, thanks to Vladimir Putin

By Noah Smith
Ignoring EVs Costs America Higher Gas Bills
SocialMar 30, 2026

Ignoring EVs Costs America Higher Gas Bills

The Iran War is showing that there are costs to disbelieving in technology. Americans ignored EVs while the rest of the world embraced them. Now we're paying the price in higher gas bills. https://t.co/7S9UrBqiId

By Noah Smith
AI Threatens Japan's Pseudonymous X Culture
SocialMar 30, 2026

AI Threatens Japan's Pseudonymous X Culture

Japan loves X because of the pseudonymity. But AI is going to make it easy to dox anyone from their writing style very soon, so its appeal may diminish.

By Noah Smith
US Woes Pale Compared to Canada and UK Crises
SocialMar 29, 2026

US Woes Pale Compared to Canada and UK Crises

However bad you think things are in the United States, they're worse in Canada and the UK.

By Noah Smith
Euthanasia for Depression Equals State‑Sponsored Murder
SocialMar 29, 2026

Euthanasia for Depression Equals State‑Sponsored Murder

Offering euthanasia to depressed people is state-sponsored murder. There is no ambiguity. It is murder.

By Noah Smith
Creativity Emerges From Networks, Not Solo Minds
SocialMar 29, 2026

Creativity Emerges From Networks, Not Solo Minds

Yes. Creativity almost entirely happens at the level of the network/group, not at the level of the individual brain. The question is not "Can AI be creative?". It's "Does having lots of AI in the discovery network make it more...

By Noah Smith
MAID Driven by Government Cost Savings, Not Dignity
SocialMar 29, 2026

MAID Driven by Government Cost Savings, Not Dignity

The purpose of MAID is not to let people die with dignity. The purpose of MAID is to save the government money. They will keep pushing death on everyone they can push it on, in order to save the government...

By Noah Smith
AI Can Now Design Cancer Vaccines—Game‑changing Breakthrough
SocialMar 27, 2026

AI Can Now Design Cancer Vaccines—Game‑changing Breakthrough

We can vibe-code cancer vaccines, and you think no one is going to be able to vibe-code a doomsday virus?

By Noah Smith
AI Threatens Internet, Reverting Humanity to Dunbar Limits
SocialMar 27, 2026

AI Threatens Internet, Reverting Humanity to Dunbar Limits

Only AI is powerful enough to destroy the internet and force humans back into a world ruled by Dunbar's Number. Until this happens, human society will continue to deteriorate.

By Noah Smith
Democracies Must Send Volunteers to Ukraine to Learn Modern War
SocialMar 27, 2026

Democracies Must Send Volunteers to Ukraine to Learn Modern War

Every democratic country needs to have a substantial number of "volunteers" fighting in Ukrainian units, so that they know how to fight a modern war.

By Noah Smith
Powerful AI Models Will Tip Cybersecurity Balance
SocialMar 27, 2026

Powerful AI Models Will Tip Cybersecurity Balance

We'll soon see if very powerful AI models favor the attack or the defense when it comes to cybersecurity...

By Noah Smith
Future Cities Sacrificed for AI Trading Data Centers
SocialMar 26, 2026

Future Cities Sacrificed for AI Trading Data Centers

2030s: Your hometown is bulldozed to make room for data centers to power quant trading AGI

By Noah Smith
AI and Humanity Stagnate: No Truly New Creations in Years
SocialMar 26, 2026

AI and Humanity Stagnate: No Truly New Creations in Years

"Why hasn't AI created anything truly new in four years?" IDK bro, why hasn't humanity created anything truly new in fifteen years

By Noah Smith