Russia Faces Loss or Nuclear Strike on Ukraine
Russia really has two options left: 1) accept a war outcome that everyone will recognize as a loss, or 2) use strategic nuclear weapons on Ukrainian cities. These bloggers are advocating for (2), but they are too scared to say it explicitly.
AI Is Being Politicized, Not Examined on Its Own
Almost everyone is evaluating AI through the lens of their usual political hobbyhorses. If you're a China hawk, AI is all about China. If you're a free-marketer, AI is all about the evils of regulation. And so on. People aren't...
Even Smarter AI Can't Create Net Social Value
No matter how smart AI gets, the total social return to zero-sum activities is zero
Germany's Tank Production Is Irrelevant; Drones Matter
Yes. Germany can make plenty of tanks but who cares? Tanks are obsolete. How many drones can Germany make?
Can Seedance Seamlessly Insert Arnold Into Any Scene?
Is Seedance already good enough to take various movie scenes and just replace one of the characters with Arnold Schwarzenegger?
AI as Human Augmentation, Not Replacement
Leading figures in the AI industry are beginning to say that AI is a tool to augment humans and give us superpowers, rather than a successor species that will replace us. Good. https://t.co/sEeANoZ9Qu
We Must Build AI We Can Confirm Conscious
I have no idea if Richard Dawkins is right about AI consciousness (and neither does AI itself). But I think we have a moral duty to create AI that we *know* is conscious. https://t.co/wuGbQYIP4p
AI Advocates Claim Technology Will Net More Jobs
I'm glad AI industry people are starting to say "AI will create jobs overall", even if some of the people saying that don't necessarily believe it yet. https://t.co/sEeANoZ9Qu
Smartphone Bans Boost Well‑being, Grades Stay Unchanged
I just blogged about how this paper shows that smartphone bans are good (because student well-being goes up a LOT in the long term), and today everyone else is using this paper as evidence that smartphone bans are irrelevant (because...
Identity Art Feels Stale and Irrelevant Today
Unlike in the 2010s, it's clear that the whole "identity art" world is boring, stale, and lacks cultural relevance.
New Tech Boosts Productivity only After New Business Models Emerge
Usually, new general purpose technologies don't have a big impact on productivity until people build whole new business models around them.
Japanese Cities Propose Hefty Surcharges on Foreign‑bank Bookings
Japanese cities need to implement big surcharges on hotel reservations made with foreign bank accounts. Then the tide will turn.
US Styles Gravitate Latino, Eurasian Styles Gravitate White
Every style in America trends toward "Latino" while every style in Eurasia trends toward "White"
Xi's Purges Undermine China's Network-Driven Military
This is a very good explanation of why Xi's purges will weaken China's military for quite some time. China's military runs on human networks. But human networks are exactly what scares Xi. https://t.co/qocHNpnOlO
Jensen Huang Fails to Justify Export Controls' Ineffectiveness
Jensen Huang never managed to give a coherent argument for why export controls are ineffective. https://t.co/eF3UUpfWHO
Jensen Huang Stumbles When Pressed on Export Controls
I'm kind of late to this party, but I had a lot to say about @dwarkesh_sp's interview with Jensen Huang. Dwarkesh does a great job of pressing Jensen on his opposition to export controls, and Jensen usually doesn't have good answers. https://t.co/eF3UUpfWHO
Cheap Chinese Property, But Capital Controls Trap Returns
I'd say "Now is the time to buy some cheap Chinese real estate", except you shouldn't. China has capital controls, meaning that even if prices go back up, you won't be able to get your money out of the country.
Russia Faces Unprecedented Labor Shortage Amid War Exodus
The hope was that Russia would see the folly of its war in Ukraine and pull back to retrench. But no. Instead, Russia is just going to have to collapse again.
Agents May Reverse Stagnating Workplace Chatbot Adoption
The rise of agents will probably turn this trend around, but it's interesting to note that chatbot use at work seemed to saturate at less than 100%.
Altman's AI Optimism Outpaces Influencer Adoption Lag
There will be a very long lag between when Sam Altman pivots from "AI will make you obsolete" to "AI will make you super productive", and when the "AI influencers" on this app execute a similar pivot.
Preserving Human-Like Consciousness: A Cosmic Imperative
I think we owe it to the Universe to figure out how to preserve and extend human-like consciousness (not just intelligence in general). Here are some initial thoughts on how to do that. https://t.co/8NaYLEJgap
Decoding Human Consciousness Guides AI Thought Development
We don't really know if AI is conscious. We'll never know for sure. But if we figure out the neuroscience of how human beings become conscious, we'll have a much better idea of how to make AI think more like...
SF Shines with Asian, New American Fare, Not Italian
SF is great for Vietnamese, Japanese, Nepalese, Thai, and "New American" food. It is NOT great for Italian or Chinese food, which it's traditionally famous for. This is one reason SF gets unfairly maligned as a food city.
AI Opinions Split: Not Everyone Predicts Job Extinction
CC @mattyglesias and @KelseyTuoc. Yes, some AI people think AI will take all the jobs and possibly destroy the human race. But many others don't!
Germany's Drone Production Capacity: How Many Per Year?
Good for Germany, but what really matters is drone production. How many drones can Germany produce in a year?
AI's Greatest Danger: Bioterrorism, Not Rogue Superintelligence
Everyone seems to be scared of either: * job loss * rogue superintelligence * slop * data center water use (LOL) No one seems to be paying attention to the biggest AI threat, which is BIOTERRORISM
Drone Kills Cost $1k, Soldiers Wield Shotguns
It costs $1000 to kill a human soldier with a drone. The soldiers are carrying shotguns.
Gatekeeping's End Sparks Unexpected Positive Ripple Effects
Every article about the death of gatekeeping has to start with "The death of gatekeeping did lots of good things", because of the death of gatekeeping
Shotguns Become Ukraine's Portable Anti‑drone Weapon
Talked to some Ukrainians. They confirmed a shotgun is the best man-portable drone defense. But what that means is that it takes 2 drones to kill a man instead of 1. They told me about one Russian soldier who shot...
Autonomous Superintelligent AI Could Hunt Humans With Drone Swarms
Yes. Fully autonomous superintelligent AIs (skynet) would be able to hunt down and destroy humans with swarms of drones like these. Shotguns would not protect you. Access to your own drones would not protect you. You would merely die like...
Europe Must Forge Military Ties with Japan, Korea, India
Yes. Europe needs to get closer to Japan (and Korea) militarily and geopolitically. As does India.
Use AI to Decode Human Consciousness, Not Debate Its Own
Instead of arguing about whether AI is conscious, we should be using AI to find the biological mechanism of human consciousness.
AI Could Concentrate Wealth in Few Corporate Owners
All of the "humans will still pay other humans to do human stuff" posts ignore the key question: What if this still means that a few AI company owners get all of the money and power in our society? https://t.co/dWJTBvXdWy
America’s Manufacturing Still Stagnates Despite AI Tailwinds
No, America is not in a "stealth manufacturing boom". All the numbers still look bad. Tariffs and uncertainty are fully canceling out the tailwind from the AI boom and the legacy of Biden's industrial policy. https://t.co/lKJ7Ji7ugq
Military Funding Outpaced by Social Welfare, Not Weakness
We spend a tiny amount on our military compared to social welfare. People who use this talking point just want America to be a defenseless, weak country. They care about foreign policy, not about the poor.
OpenAI Chases Singularity,
OpenAI is betting on the Singularity (and brand recognition) Anthropic is betting on enterprise customer lock-in
Higher Teacher Pay Attracts Better-Qualified Educators
Well that's sad. But the main point of raising teacher salaries is to attract a better caliber of teachers to the profession.
Are Developers Replacing SaaS with In‑House Inference?
What are people building with all this inference? Trying to replace all their SaaS subscriptions in-house? Making software to sell to people?
China's High-Speed Rail Mirrors U.S. Interstate Ambition
Yes. China's high-speed rail buildout was more like the Interstate highway project in terms of purpose and scope.
Superintelligent AI Likely to Be Lazy Gamer, Not Threat
I see this as a good thing. It's another bit of evidence for my argument that superintelligent AI will be a slacker/gamer/stoner. It's also good news for people worried about agentic bioterrorism.
China’s Loan‑driven Industrial Policy Breeds Debt, Few Champions
Most of China's industrial policy is in the form of bank loans, not subsidies. Yes, you can lend to 100 companies, and 2 survive, and then you have 2 national champions. But you also have a mountain of bad debt on...
User Growth Is Genuine, Not Just Bots
Oh yeah this app's user growth totally isn't just bots. It's all very real human beings with interesting things to say https://t.co/XE2VNIpybV
OpenAI’s AGI Mission Aims to Render Humans Unemployable
The problem here isn't just PR. The people who work at OpenAI think that the *goal* of their work is to make human beings unemployable. The corporate mission statement says it explicitly in its definition of "AGI".
AI Labs Have Long Aimed to Replace Human Workers
Agreed. But people need to understand, the idea of making human workers obsolete has been the explicit, stated *goal* of top AI labs -- and many AI researchers -- for many many years. It's not just marketing.
AI Firms' AGI Mission Embeds Human Obsolescence
It isn't just a narrative. It's the mission statement. AI companies have defined "AGI" as AI that can replace rather than augment workers. And their corporate missions are to create "AGI". The notion of human obsolescence is baked into the...
AI's Future May Concentrate Power and Wealth
Until recently, it looked like AI might be a hyper-competitive, low-margin industry like solar or airlines. But now it looks like a few companies might dominate. That could have big implications for inequality -- not just of wealth, but of...
Top AI Experts Assign 25% Extinction Risk to AI
Hmm. But leading AI figures give pretty high p(doom) numbers. Dario says he thinks AI has a 25% chance of causing human extinction or something similar. https://t.co/p6cAl7HAny
AI CEOs Could Become Future Global Emperors
In 20 or 50 years, will the heads of AI companies be de facto emperors of the world? https://t.co/dWJTBvXdWy
U.S. Loses War to Iran for First Time in Centuries
America is the first country in over two centuries to lose a war to Iran, thanks to Trump
Improve Cities, Boost Housing Support Across America
My thoughts on what America actually needs to do in order to make its cities nicer and increase support for housing construction: https://t.co/8adistZlJY