Cold War Soviet Terror Tactics Resurface in Ukraine Shooting
During the Cold War, Soviet intelligence agencies actively sponsored or even created terror cells throughout Europe. A recent mass shooting event in Ukraine suggest a return to old habits could well be happening. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/WHKMMpi5oY https://t.co/bQQW9zZdPp
UAE Exit Leaves OPEC with Minimal Market Power
With the UAE exit, OPEC has officially lost most influence it still had over global oil markets... Full analysis available exclusively for Analyst Tier members on Patreon ➡️ https://t.co/Es6KeSByiI #opec #crudeoil #geopolitics https://t.co/UIfE0geRBI
Trump's Iran Strategy Isolates Italy and U.S. Allies
Trump's chaotic and isolated approach to the Iran War has caused rifts between the U.S. and many of its closest European allies. Topping that list is the Italians. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/AkAWXRScuC #iranwar #italy #geopolitics https://t.co/ZM8pQvXrQU
US Absence Derails Iran Peace Talks, Russia Gains Influence
Peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have collapsed. Nobody important from America bothered to show up, and Iran is too busy buddying up with Russia... #iranwar #peacetalk #geopolitics https://t.co/zskK6mR85J
Hormuz Closure Sparks California Energy Crunch
The fallout from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is reaching California, triggering a serious energy crunch. Full Newsletter: #iranwar #crudeoil #geopolitics https://t.co/wXUuhw5ng7
Iran Conflict Cuts Oil, Boosts US Petrochemical Edge
The global petrochemical system is built on oil, and the Iran war just pulled a massive chunk of that supply off the table. With roughly 13 million barrels per day knocked offline, countries that rely on refining crude into naphtha...
Export Collapse Boosts US/Canada Prices, yet Halts Risk Oversupply
As Persian Gulf and Russian exports collapse, global prices will rise, which should benefit the U.S. and Canada. However, if exports are halted to keep gasoline prices down, then North America would become oversupplied. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/9vsV5HAcmy https://t.co/34b7yklfSr
Double Blockade in Persian Gulf Spikes Global Energy Prices
The situation in the Persian Gulf has worsened. Despite the ceasefire, a double blockade has broken out. It's one big cluster, and the global energy markets are feeling the heat. #iranwar #crudeoil #geopolitics https://t.co/iV7sYWClso
Pacific Storms Prompt Fresh Look at Climate Links
I normally do not attempt to link climate change to local events, but current storms in the central Pacific demand we take a fresh look. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/JMOSkdKCNb #guam #climate https://t.co/pXtbl8WCxQ
US Opens Tough Cuba Talks, Deadline Looms This Week
The U.S. has begun new negotiations with Cuba, presenting sweeping demands with a looming deadline later this week. Full analysis available exclusively for Analyst Tier members on Patreon ➡️ https://t.co/MG6vaQVGos #cuba #geopolitics https://t.co/Y4hhm8sZaK
Jet Fuel Shortage Looming; Save for Summer Flights
Even if the Iran ceasefire holds, the world already has a months-long jet fuel shortage baked in. So, start saving for those summer vacation flights. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/RZBrtJ5Ufo #iranwar #jetfuel #geopolitics https://t.co/WaIwrgDGKI
California’s Oil Decline Forces Costly Imports and Shortages
For a mix of reasons, California has decimated its local oil production. As a result, it’s now producing only about 300,000 barrels a day. But as the economy grows and the population expands, oil demand continues to rise. The state...
Rising Storms Threaten Guam’s Strategic Military Role
I don’t usually try to connect climate change to specific local events. The relationship between climate and weather is complex, and it’s easy to overreach. But what’s happening in the Central Pacific right now is one of those cases where...
China's South China Sea Sandcastle Standoff Escalates
China is out building sand castles again in the South China Sea, and I bet you can guess how it's going to end. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/qT7WL6fip6 https://t.co/AWaJ4CxF9C
U.S. Launches First Day of Iran Blockade
The blockade of Iran has officially begun. The first day was a bit slow, but this remains a monumental move by the U.S. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/IHDSzOzsGV #iranwar #straitofhormuz #geopolitics https://t.co/1fzk2tvwUx
Asia's Energy Shortage Sparks Rationing and Black Markets
Rationing and black markets have already sprung up in Asia. Some countries have found ways around the shortage (for now), but that has created new issues for others. #iranwar #energy #geopolitics https://t.co/0wpmsFgat3
Pre‑war Shipments Arrive, Marking Energy Crisis Turning Point
The global energy crisis has moved from theoretical to very real. As the last shipments sent before the war begin to arrive, we are now hitting a turning point in the energy crisis. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/8EQyEETy7t #crudeoil #energy #geopolitics https://t.co/HnrMkQSYy5
Jet Fuel Shortage Looms for Year After Middle East Disruption
Even if the ceasefire holds, we are looking at a months-long shortage of jet fuel on a global basis, most heavily focused on the Southeast and Northeast Asian zone. The Kuwaiti, Iraqi and Saudi [medium-heavy sour] crudes that are favored in...
Trump Announces U.S. Blockade of Hormuz Strait
President Trump made one of the most significant moves of the past year when he announced that the U.S. would blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Full analysis available exclusively on Patreon ➡️ https://t.co/9Jtz6Cei8b #iranwar #geopolitics https://t.co/pQIrU6zGT9
Iran Conflict Triggers Oil Shortage, Reshapes Market Winners
The Iran war has slashed oil exports from the Persian Gulf, creating a global supply shortage that's just starting to hit markets. As prices are driven up and broader economic impacts unfold, winners and losers will begin to emerge. Full Newsletter:...
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Leaves Chaos and Contradiction
What Does This Ceasefire Actually Mean? Once again, we've found ourselves in a chaotic and contradictory situation. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is shaping up to be one big cluster. #iranwar #geopolitics
Without WTO, Regional Blocs Create Economic Imbalances
Without the WTO, the world will revert to regional trading blocs. The issue is that this leaves several regions without balanced economies (you need production and consumption, and only a handful of areas have that). #trade #wto #geopolitics https://t.co/2TTZ38I9KL
World Trade Organization, Globalization’s Cornerstone, Collapses
A cornerstone of modern globalization, the World Trade Organization (WTO), is collapsing. Following the Cold War, the post-WWII system needed a legal system to enforce trade rules, so the WTO was born. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/NyZga6gg0S https://t.co/o16DadJrPq
Self‑Sufficiency Policy Reverts Century, Undermines US Global Power
Forcing everyone to secure their own resources takes us back about a century, triggering conflicts and competition over resource control. This move weakens America's global position... #geopolitics #trump #nato https://t.co/XjQdUuGG3H
Trump's Oil Ultimatum Threatens Post‑WWII Security Order
Trump's latest statement telling countries to secure their own oil dismantles the very fabric of the global order. We'd be stepping away from the post-WWII system where the U.S. provided security for everyone, so economic growth could be the priority. Full...
GCC U.S. Investments Threatened by Iran War Cash Cuts
Are foreign investments by GCC countries into the U.S. market compromised as cash flows continue to be cut off by the war in Iran? Watch my entire interview with @JayMartinBC here ➡️ https://t.co/0whdPPs6jQ #iranwar #economy #geopolitics https://t.co/pFuTmXYj79
Seizing Iran's Oil Requires Invasion, Not Simple Trump Rhetoric
Taking Iran's Oil is far more complicated and dangerous than Trump has made it out to be. We're talking about a humanitarian crisis and a full-blown ground invasion to actually control Iranian production. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/9M4RIr0wDA #crude #geopolitics https://t.co/X25nCUjeYn
Iran Breaches Saudi Missile Defense, Threatens 7 M Bpd Output
Iran has successfully penetrated Saudi Arabia's missile defense systems. The strikes caused major damage to energy infrastructure, & those bypass options just went out the window. If strikes continue, nearly ~7 million barrels per day could go offline for years. #crude...
Russia Supplied Targeting Data for Iran's Strike on US Base
Iran was able to successfully strike Prince Sultan Air Base, which is a U.S. base in Saudi Arabia. And guess who supplied Iran with the targeting data necessary to carry out the strike? The Russians. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/YsSsWUgabS https://t.co/y7D0Jcdg3V
British-Led Hormuz Reopening Plan Unrealistic without U.S. Support
The British-led effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by forming a coalition without U.S. involvement is just unrealistic. Here's why... #iranwar #crudeoil #geopolitics https://t.co/lVUq1LEnA7
Europe's U.S.-Excluding Trade Plans Are Fundamentally Flawed
European efforts to build trade systems that exclude the U.S. are inherently flawed. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/wTTMKJCfX2 #eu #trade #geopolitics https://t.co/gxyaAjNqwT
Iran Controls Hormuz Shipping, Still Allows Limited Passage
Despite the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains open...sort of. The Iranians have taken control, requiring ships to get clearance for safe passage. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/lLVFB8CxL5 https://t.co/WldUQaXc3Y
U.S. Readies Marines and 82nd Airborne for Iran Ground Operation
The U.S. is preparing for a potential ground operation in Iran. Marines from the USS Tripoli and Boxer, as well as elements from the 82nd Airborne, could be looped in. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/j9QYfrxtce https://t.co/8CIXJetEvm
First‑home Ownership Slipping Out of Reach for Americans
Buying your first home is one of those major milestones that your parents and grandparents probably didn't even think twice about. Now, that milestone is slipping further out of reach for the average American. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/b7XW53YvL8 https://t.co/mublHiUlix
Ukraine Drone Strike Shows New Threat to Russian Oil Exports
The global energy trade has been taking hit after hit, and things might be getting worse. Ukraine launched a large drone attack on oil export facilities in the Baltic, proving they can disrupt Russian exports. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/Tp92ahyVzj https://t.co/Zk1DX6pw9v
IRGC Funding Loss Could Trigger Iran’s Internal Fractures
Given Iran's fragmentation and ethnic diversity, internal stability is essential. Should the IRGC's revenue streams fall in the war, internal fractures would form. #iranwar #irgc #geopolitics https://t.co/p2wDZMDKrC
U.S. Must Destabilize IRGC to Reshape Iran
If the U.S. wants to force a meaningful change in Iran's government, there's only one path forward. They have to destabilize the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Full Newsletter: https://t.co/J94zmGzUuP #iranwar #geopolitics https://t.co/vsSQXimbCn
Gulf Aluminum Plants Supply 9% Globally, Tightening Markets
The facilities in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman account for roughly 9% of global primary aluminum. This is going to tighten supply for many key global industries like construction, vehicles, and aerospace. #aluminum #iranwar #geopolitics https://t.co/qO2ERCGHMN
Iran's $2M Ship Fee Fuels Export Surge Amid US Presence
Iran is processing ships at the Imam Khomeini port, located in Khuzestan at the northernmost extreme of the Gulf, near Kharg Island. So, for ships seeking passage approval from Iran, they have to sail all the way to the northern end...
Iran’s Gas Attacks Threaten Persian Gulf Aluminum Production
Aluminum production in the Persian Gulf is going bye-bye. As Iran ramps up strikes on gas fields, pipelines, and power plants, the countries that depend upon cheap natural gas will no longer be able to run their smelters. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/HA7AqLgHqP...
Nitrogen Fertilizers Hit Hard as Gas Prices Surge
Potash and phosphate-based fertilizers remain mostly unaffected, but nitrogen-based fertilizers that rely on natural gas are the problem. Global urea and ammonia supplies are already being hit hard. #fertilizer #foodsupply #geopolitics https://t.co/LaLbS7VyH1
U.S. Pursues Symbolic Victory Over Practical Strategy
These narratives are likely just a reflection of the U.S. searching for a symbolic win, rather than a practical military plan. #iranwar #marines #geopolitics https://t.co/tCey0wFpxi
Ukraine Escalates Successful Strikes on Baltic Export Hub
Doubling down on its strikes in the Baltic, Ukraine has launched an even more impressive and successful strike on Ust-Luga and other export facilities. Full analysis available exclusively for Analyst Tier members on Patreon ➡️ https://t.co/Vp7XCb4HTR #russiaukrainewar #energy https://t.co/nwoDcCn3T7
Seizing Iranian Assets Won’t End War, Too Risky
Claims that the U.S. will end the war by seizing Iranian assets make no strategic sense. Targeting Kharg Island or removing the uranium from Isfahan with ground operations is just too risky. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/308pm3Zz5k https://t.co/AQUqnZ0yj5
Drone Strikes Threaten Russian Oil, Global Market Stability
With the Persian Gulf effectively offline, losing Russian oil would be devastating to the global markets. Drone warfare continues to evolve and reshape the way these conflicts unfold, especially when targeting energy infrastructure. #crude #russiaukrainewar #geopolitics https://t.co/L5OoXtN7DJ
Supreme Court Declares Trump's Tariffs Illegal, Enforces Proper Section 301
The Supreme Court ruled Trump's tariffs were illegal, forcing the administration to do things...the right way. Welcome to Section 301 investigations. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/clLUiPPPhq #tariffs #trump #economy https://t.co/En6Bk5ulRD
Trump Delays Iran Deadline, Averts Hormuz Escalation
Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, pumping the brakes on the war crimes he threatened to commit on Iran's civilian power infrastructure. Whether there were actually talks w/ Iran or someone convinced Trump to...
U.S. Relies on Canadian Manufacturing Amid NAFTA Talks
Leaving Canada high and dry could backfire, as the U.S. benefits greatly from Canadian manufacturing. We'll see how the strategy changes throughout these NAFTA negotiations. #NAFTA #trade #geopolitics https://t.co/G5bk8aSGAU
US Begins NAFTA Talks, Leaves Canada Out
The U.S. has kicked off renegotiating NAFTA, but Canada was left out of the first round between Mexico and the U.S. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/FCIjtRSKp6 #nafta #trade #geopolitics https://t.co/t6Gl84ia32
Iran's Drone Swarms Strain Gulf Missile Defenses
Iran's Shahed deployment and targeting are improving, thanks to tactics like launching swarms of drones with varying flight paths. These strategies are rapidly exhausting missile defenses in the Persian Gulf. #iranwar #shahed #geopolitics https://t.co/QUFZ0xOxqT