Peter Zeihan

Peter Zeihan

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Geopolitical strategist; supply chains, industrial base and security implications.

Qatar's Gas Strike Halts 30% of Global Nitrogen Fertilizer
SocialMar 19, 2026

Qatar's Gas Strike Halts 30% of Global Nitrogen Fertilizer

The real problem is nitrogen-based fertilizers, which are, as a rule, derived from oil-based naphtha or natural gas. Currently, Qatar takes natural gas produced at its South Pars gas field, which was recently struck by Iran, to make ammonia and...

By Peter Zeihan
Dollar's Short-Term Risks vs Long-Term Strength
SocialMar 19, 2026

Dollar's Short-Term Risks vs Long-Term Strength

The U.S. Dollar: Short vs. Long Term Watch Full Video on YT ➡️ https://t.co/vgIHgyjagj #usd #useconomy #geopolitics

By Peter Zeihan
Analyzing the Future Trajectory of the U.S. Dollar
SocialMar 19, 2026

Analyzing the Future Trajectory of the U.S. Dollar

Before anybody asks, no, the following is NOT financial advice. The U.S. dollar is constantly in the spotlight, so where is it heading? Full Newsletter: https://t.co/qD5bHTPN4x #usd #usdollar #economy https://t.co/6JfYCZFI5C

By Peter Zeihan
Iran Hits Qatar LNG Hub, Threatening Global Supply
SocialMar 18, 2026

Iran Hits Qatar LNG Hub, Threatening Global Supply

Iran has successfully broken through Qatari air defenses for the second day in a row, this time striking the globally significant Ras Laffan energy complex. The strikes come after Iran’s own natural gas processing plants along the shared North Dome/South Pars...

By Peter Zeihan
Israel Strikes Iran's South Pars Facility, Risking Power Outages
SocialMar 18, 2026

Israel Strikes Iran's South Pars Facility, Risking Power Outages

Israel has hit Iranian energy infrastructure for the first time; the strike hit a processing facility tied to the South Pars gas field, which could lead to major electricity shortages in Iran within days. Access my daily coverage of the...

By Peter Zeihan
Trump Unveils “Shield of the Americas” Anti‑cartel Pact
SocialMar 18, 2026

Trump Unveils “Shield of the Americas” Anti‑cartel Pact

Trump has launched a new regional security initiative called the Shield of the Americas. This partners with several Latin American leaders that Trump likes to target drug cartels throughout LATAM. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/WT87XwHmmg https://t.co/qCtV29ReRZ

By Peter Zeihan
Russian Shadow Fleet Set to Vanish, Shipping Shortage Looms
SocialMar 17, 2026

Russian Shadow Fleet Set to Vanish, Shipping Shortage Looms

There's a good chance that the entire Russian shadow fleet could be dismantled within months. Beyond the impacts on Russian, Iranian, and other oil supplies, global shipping could be shifting towards a shortage as the vessels are retired. #crude #crudeoil #geopolitics...

By Peter Zeihan
Cuba Faces Imminent Systemic Collapse After Grid Failure
SocialMar 17, 2026

Cuba Faces Imminent Systemic Collapse After Grid Failure

Cuba is engulfed in a nationwide power grid failure. Systemic collapse is coming to Cuba very soon. Full analysis available on Patreon ➡️ https://t.co/VNJoHISo7E #energy #cuba #geopolitics https://t.co/SR0KrsR1o3

By Peter Zeihan
Sweden Seizes First Shadow Fleet Vessel, Signaling Global Crackdown
SocialMar 17, 2026

Sweden Seizes First Shadow Fleet Vessel, Signaling Global Crackdown

Sweden has seized its first shadow fleet vessel. They even went after a bulk carrier rather than a tanker. As more countries join in on the crackdown on Russia's shadow fleet, the dominoes are beginning to fall. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/pUmv12pCMy

By Peter Zeihan
Ukraine's Sting Interceptor Could Halt Iran Drone Assault
SocialMar 16, 2026

Ukraine's Sting Interceptor Could Halt Iran Drone Assault

Defenses in the Persian Gulf are collapsing as Iran continues large drone attacks, but there's a country that already has the answer. Enter Ukraine's Sting interceptor. Note: name correction at the end 📸: Wild Hornets #drone #iranwar #geopolitics

By Peter Zeihan
India, Russia, Iran War Issues Are Distinct, Not Conflated
SocialMar 16, 2026

India, Russia, Iran War Issues Are Distinct, Not Conflated

There have been two major developments involving India, Russia, and the Iran war being conflated. These are two separate issues altogether. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/SjgRO1nWPF #iranwar #crudeoil #geopolitics https://t.co/nhLc5LS8wH

By Peter Zeihan
U.S. Energy Firms Begin Re‑entering Iraq After War
SocialMar 13, 2026

U.S. Energy Firms Begin Re‑entering Iraq After War

We've all heard the claim that the Iraq War was a war for oil, but American energy firms barely wanted to touch Iraq after Saddam fell. Things might be shifting now. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/5iqjffXWpl #crudeoil #iraq #chevron #geopolitics https://t.co/tn3Jsb1BTc

By Peter Zeihan
Europe Likely to See Multiple New Nuclear Programs
SocialMar 12, 2026

Europe Likely to See Multiple New Nuclear Programs

While France wants to extend its nuclear umbrella, the far more likely outcome is a Europe where multiple countries build their own nukes. #eu #nuclear #geopolitics https://t.co/Msz4bhjb8H

By Peter Zeihan
IEA's One-Month Oil Buffer Signals Looming Global Rationing
SocialMar 12, 2026

IEA's One-Month Oil Buffer Signals Looming Global Rationing

The International Energy Agency (IEA) just authorized a 400 million barrel reserve release to offset oil disruptions caused by the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz blockade. That stabilizes markets—for now. However, with global demand at around 100 million...

By Peter Zeihan
Macron Pushes French Nuclear Expansion to Safeguard EU
SocialMar 12, 2026

Macron Pushes French Nuclear Expansion to Safeguard EU

Macron is proposing that France expand its nuclear deterrent to help shield the entire European Union. This comes at a time when Europe is losing confidence in the United States' security guarantees. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/brXS2oYT9J https://t.co/YPp7v8IkmX

By Peter Zeihan
Escalating Attacks Threaten Strait of Hormuz Disruption
SocialMar 11, 2026

Escalating Attacks Threaten Strait of Hormuz Disruption

The last 24 hours have brought the most sustained attacks from both sides since the conflict started. We could see this escalation spill into the Strait of Hormuz with mines and further maritime disruption. Full video analysis exclusively on...

By Peter Zeihan
US Unveils Lucas, a Drone Matching Shahed's Weight Class
SocialMar 11, 2026

US Unveils Lucas, a Drone Matching Shahed's Weight Class

The U.S. has a drone that punches in the same (financial) weight class as the Iranian Shahed. Everybody, meet LUCAS. #shahed #drone #iranwar #geopolitics https://t.co/hoDkzlZII0

By Peter Zeihan
Norway, Iceland Eye EU Membership Amid U.S. Shift
SocialMar 10, 2026

Norway, Iceland Eye EU Membership Amid U.S. Shift

As the U.S. becomes more transactional and predatory, Norway and Iceland are now considering EU membership to add a bit more security. #eu #geopolitics https://t.co/ziNWQ6FQIW

By Peter Zeihan
War Expands to Civilian Infrastructure, Risking Economic Disaster
SocialMar 10, 2026

War Expands to Civilian Infrastructure, Risking Economic Disaster

The Iran War is shifting toward civilian infrastructure. Israel is targeting fuel depots around Tehran, & Iran struck a desalination facility in Bahrain. Further escalation could carry serious economic & humanitarian consequences. Access Peter's 3/11 Q&A https://t.co/mlYf8sohf4 https://t.co/Azea9LqQlh

By Peter Zeihan
Iceland and Norway React as Trump Eyes Greenland
SocialMar 10, 2026

Iceland and Norway React as Trump Eyes Greenland

As Trump has been screaming into the void about acquiring Greenland, the wheels over in #Iceland and #Norway are starting to turn. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/wGaex4mPph #eu #europeanunion #geopolitics https://t.co/7SEnZinGjq

By Peter Zeihan
Shadow Fleet Faces Shutdown Within Months, Europe Leads
SocialMar 9, 2026

Shadow Fleet Faces Shutdown Within Months, Europe Leads

The Belgian government has seized a tanker of the shadow fleet. With the United States, India, and now the Europeans intervening, it is only a matter of time – months at most – before the entire fleet is shut down. Full...

By Peter Zeihan
Ukrainian Strikes Threaten US Oil Giants’ Kazakh Profits
SocialMar 8, 2026

Ukrainian Strikes Threaten US Oil Giants’ Kazakh Profits

Chevron and ExxonMobil have a stake in major Kazakh oil projects, which flow through Russia to be exported. Ukrainian strikes on any related infrastructure risk harming those American energy companies’ bottom line, and that simply will not do. #crudeoil #drones #geopolitics...

By Peter Zeihan
China Faces Energy Crisis as Gulf Oil Imports Halt
SocialMar 8, 2026

China Faces Energy Crisis as Gulf Oil Imports Halt

China imports crude oil based on the day, between 65 and 85% of its total, and about three-quarters of that comes specifically from the Persian Gulf. And that has now dropped to zero. Unlike countries like the United States, which...

By Peter Zeihan
Iran's Missile Strikes Fall, Drones Persist via China
SocialMar 7, 2026

Iran's Missile Strikes Fall, Drones Persist via China

We've seen a confirmed drop in Iran's missile attacks, but drones remain the larger LT threat. The complication that I'll be following closely is China's role. With Chinese shipments of drone components still entering Iran, the US will have to...

By Peter Zeihan
Panama's Port Seizures Curb China's Regional Maritime Influence
SocialMar 6, 2026

Panama's Port Seizures Curb China's Regional Maritime Influence

While the ports seized by Panama weren't a direct military threat, they're strategically significant. Removing China from the equation makes Chinese activity in the region more difficult, especially as the U.S. Navy steps away from its role as global protector...

By Peter Zeihan
Iran War Day 6: Energy Crises, Regime Splits, Ukraine Links
SocialMar 5, 2026

Iran War Day 6: Energy Crises, Regime Splits, Ukraine Links

The Iran War - Day 6: Energy Disruption, Regime Fragmentation, and Ukraine You are watching a full preview of Peter's coverage of the Iran War. Join our Analyst Tier on Patreon to access daily videos and analysis of...

By Peter Zeihan
US Pressures Ukraine to Spare Russian Energy Assets
SocialMar 5, 2026

US Pressures Ukraine to Spare Russian Energy Assets

The U.S. is pressuring Ukraine to avoid striking specific Russian energy infrastructure. As you could imagine, this all has to do with American economic interests. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/XGHjzTaHH8 #ukrainewar #militarystrike #geopolitics https://t.co/lB8qnpN0Kx

By Peter Zeihan
Israel, U.S. Target Iran's Leadership, Undermining Negotiations
SocialMar 5, 2026

Israel, U.S. Target Iran's Leadership, Undermining Negotiations

Israel and the U.S. are steadily eliminating Iran’s top leadership, including figures capable of negotiating an end to the conflict... Join our Analyst Tier on Patreon to watch the full video ➡️ https://t.co/R47Ca3Pp6h #iranwar #military #geopolitics https://t.co/HS9nDRCPcB

By Peter Zeihan
Gulf Interceptor Shortage Forces Costly Missile Reliance
SocialMar 3, 2026

Gulf Interceptor Shortage Forces Costly Missile Reliance

The Gulf states are rapidly running out of interceptors. They have already burned through more than half their stockpile trying to stop low-cost Shahed drones, and soon they may have to ignore drones entirely to conserve missiles for ballistic threats. That...

By Peter Zeihan
Iran’s Missiles Wane, Drones Persist; Energy Targets Spark Crisis
SocialMar 2, 2026

Iran’s Missiles Wane, Drones Persist; Energy Targets Spark Crisis

Day 3 of the Iran War has seen Iran's missile launches declining, while drone attacks remain steady. Energy infrastructure is now being targeted, so an energy crisis is on everyone's mind. #crude #crudeoil #energy #geopolitics https://t.co/Y2ccPnnB22

By Peter Zeihan
US and Israel Intensify Strikes to Dismantle Iran's Security
SocialMar 1, 2026

US and Israel Intensify Strikes to Dismantle Iran's Security

American and Israeli forces are showing no sign of letting up in their attacks on Iranian targets. A complete liquidation of the country's security apparatus is the clear goal. Watch the full video analysis and access daily coverage of the Iran...

By Peter Zeihan
US and Israel Launch Assault on Iran
SocialFeb 28, 2026

US and Israel Launch Assault on Iran

American and Israeli military forces have launched a broad spectrum military assault against the the state of Iran with the intent of defending its military and overthrowing its government. Here's where we stand. #iran #war #geopolitics https://t.co/coZbHlYFIc

By Peter Zeihan
Pakistan’s “Open War” Claim Masks Limited Cross‑border Strikes
SocialFeb 27, 2026

Pakistan’s “Open War” Claim Masks Limited Cross‑border Strikes

Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif declared his country to be in “open war” with Afghanistan on Friday, following a series of cross-border strikes between the two neighbors. The reality is more muted. While the Pakistani military is currently conducting strikes against...

By Peter Zeihan
Trump Admin Alleges 2020 Chinese Nuclear Test From Seismic Data
SocialFeb 27, 2026

Trump Admin Alleges 2020 Chinese Nuclear Test From Seismic Data

The Trump administration has accused China of conducting a small nuclear test in 2020. The claim is that a seismic event was detected in Western China around that time. A lot is going on here, so let's unpack it. Full Newsletter:...

By Peter Zeihan
U.S. Sends 100 Advisors to Train Nigeria Post‑Airstrike
SocialFeb 26, 2026

U.S. Sends 100 Advisors to Train Nigeria Post‑Airstrike

Following the Christmas Day U.S. airstrike on a jihadist target in northern Nigeria, the U.S. has deployed 100 troops, more so advisors, to train local counterterrorism forces in Nigeria. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/uIZSP3p5af #nigeria #usmilitary #geopolitics https://t.co/j1BH1u6PXG

By Peter Zeihan
Ukrainian Attacks Thrive as Russian Forces Fragment
SocialFeb 25, 2026

Ukrainian Attacks Thrive as Russian Forces Fragment

The Ukrainians remain outnumbered. However, since Russian units are scattered, isolated, and unable to communicate, they are left vulnerable. So, organized Ukrainian offensives are finding success…for now. #ukrainewar #starlink #geopolitics https://t.co/C4sJyTga9A

By Peter Zeihan
Starlink Blackout Isolates Russian Troops, Fuels Ukrainian Gains
SocialFeb 25, 2026

Starlink Blackout Isolates Russian Troops, Fuels Ukrainian Gains

Starlink cut service to Russian forces along the front line, leaving these troops largely isolated. Ukraine has taken advantage of the situation by launching localized offensives and reclaiming a nice chunk of land. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/Q0eHcVCvu2 #ukrainewar #geopolitics

By Peter Zeihan
Japan's New Rare Earth Find Won't Shift Global Supply
SocialFeb 24, 2026

Japan's New Rare Earth Find Won't Shift Global Supply

Japan has identified a large rare earth deposit of its own, but it's not going to change global supply dynamics. Here's the situation... #rareearths #japan #geopolitics https://t.co/2WX7oeO6Jm

By Peter Zeihan
Armenia’s Landlocked Neighbors Limit Post‑Soviet Choices
SocialFeb 23, 2026

Armenia’s Landlocked Neighbors Limit Post‑Soviet Choices

Armenia’s landlocked position between Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran has left Yerevan with few good options in the post-Soviet world. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/ZWXi1Pbh4h #armenia #geopolitics https://t.co/un8RUyVDaW

By Peter Zeihan
Japan's Deep-Sea Rare Earths: Promise Meets Extraction Hurdle
SocialFeb 21, 2026

Japan's Deep-Sea Rare Earths: Promise Meets Extraction Hurdle

Japan’s deep-sea rare earth find at Minamitorishima sounds like a game-changer. And on paper, it is. The 50-50 mix of light and heavy rare earths is impressive, especially since heavy elements are the truly scarce ones. The bad news is it’s...

By Peter Zeihan
Armenia Faces Nuclear Dilemma, U.S. Aid Could Break Deadlock
SocialFeb 19, 2026

Armenia Faces Nuclear Dilemma, U.S. Aid Could Break Deadlock

Armenia's power is supplied by what is widely considered the least safe nuclear reactor on the planet, and it has no money to replace it. With Russia occupied in Ukraine, the country is desperately searching for a solution. On one end,...

By Peter Zeihan
India Navy Seizes Shadow Fleet, Triggering Domino Effect
SocialFeb 18, 2026

India Navy Seizes Shadow Fleet, Triggering Domino Effect

India's navy has begun seizing shadow fleet tankers in its exclusive economic zone. As I've said in other videos covering the shadow fleet, once the first domino falls...the rest will quickly follow. #crudeoil #crude #india #geopolitics https://t.co/IVVPGp8cQ7

By Peter Zeihan
US Plans Submarine Deployment to Australia Amid China Tensions
SocialFeb 18, 2026

US Plans Submarine Deployment to Australia Amid China Tensions

The U.S. is turning to the Aussies for some help with stationing four American submarines at Stirling in a hedge against potential future conflicts with China. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/u8WjtcAb9t #militarystrategy #usnavy #geopolitics https://t.co/kzBYp1cwAq

By Peter Zeihan
Starlink‑enabled Drones Become Ukraine War’s Deadliest Weapon
SocialFeb 17, 2026

Starlink‑enabled Drones Become Ukraine War’s Deadliest Weapon

Drones now account for the majority of casualties in the Ukraine War. With Russia improving its strike range by mounting Starlink terminals to drones, Elon Musk has finally stepped in. Full analysis available on Patreon ➡️ https://t.co/LYlet7MIHM #dronewarfare #starlink #ukrainewar #geopolitics

By Peter Zeihan
Stockpile Buffers Risk, Not Replaces Chinese Supply
SocialFeb 15, 2026

Stockpile Buffers Risk, Not Replaces Chinese Supply

A $12B rare earth stockpile is a step in the right direction, but buying from China on the open market isn’t independence; it’s a piggy bank with a very fragile supply chain. Until we build domestic processing, this is a...

By Peter Zeihan
Trump’s $12 B Rare‑Earth Stockpile: Mere Band‑Aid
SocialFeb 13, 2026

Trump’s $12 B Rare‑Earth Stockpile: Mere Band‑Aid

The Trump administration has announced a plan to create a $12 billion stockpile of rare earths. The goal is to create a buffer against any supply disruptions, but this is just a band-aid. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/daeIxnpldt #rareearths #trump #projectvault https://t.co/p6icljXtjO

By Peter Zeihan
War in Ukraine Stalls Nuclear Arms Deal, Leaving Powers Unrestricted
SocialFeb 13, 2026

War in Ukraine Stalls Nuclear Arms Deal, Leaving Powers Unrestricted

Given Russia's war in Ukraine, negotiations for a new nuclear arms deal are a moot point. So, that leaves the world's largest nuclear powers without limitations on their nuclear arsenals... #nuclear #armsdeal #geopolitics https://t.co/Yagu6LXEzC

By Peter Zeihan
Australia Base Gives US Submarines Trade‑route Leverage
SocialFeb 12, 2026

Australia Base Gives US Submarines Trade‑route Leverage

The U.S. Navy plans to position submarines at HMAS Stirling in Western Australia to reduce reliance on Guam in the event of a Chinese strike. This gives Washington an alternative operating base beyond Hawaii and adds strategic redundancy in the...

By Peter Zeihan
First Decade without Any Active Nuclear Arms Control
SocialFeb 12, 2026

First Decade without Any Active Nuclear Arms Control

The last remaining US-Russia nuclear arms control agreement has expired, which means for the first time in decades, we're in a world with no active nuclear arms control. Full Newsletter: https://t.co/xC3wEhL4Wr #nuclear #geopolitics https://t.co/0MOAOnpJJh

By Peter Zeihan