LLMs' Massive Memory Inflates Perceived Reasoning Abilities
One superpower of LLMs is that they have memorized an enormous amount of all human knowledge. At a practical level that's awesome. It leads to incredible capabilities. It may, however, lead us to exaggerate their actual reasoning / novel production capabilities.
Exercise Volume Overestimated; Intensity and Consistency Matter
We massively overestimate how much exercise is needed. Study after study show the benefits for cardio fitness, longevity, and strength come from: 1. Intensity (at very low volume). 2. Consistency. Volume basically doesn't matter beyond a low amount, except for getting...
AI CapEx Hits $650B Ceiling Before Revenue Surge
My expectation on AI CapEx: There's a natural wall at annual CapEx reaching 100% of hyperscaler free cash flow [including future AI free cashflow]. That's about 50% above current spending levels. Beyond that, you need to take out a lot...
LLMs Aid Top Mathematicians but Remain Unreliable
LLMs are amazing. In math, they're clearly becoming useful to top mathematicians. They also struggle with reliability and not knowing what they don't know.
Northern Europe's Winter Power Gap Calls for Nuclear
This is a mistake. Northern Europe is one of the hardest places on earth to power with renewables. German winter is long and dark. And as we electrify heat, the greatest electricity demand will be in winter. Nuclear should be...
AI Targeting Must Remain Human‑Supervised to Prevent Tragedy
My view of the US bombing of the school in Iran being possibly (probably?) due to selection by Claude: 1. It's a tragedy. I hate seeing my country cause civilian deaths, especially kids. 2. LLMs are not 100% accurate or anything close...
Claude Auto‑creates Graphics, Outpacing ChatGPT
It's really something. My favorite new AI feature in some time. I used to deliberately prompt ChatGPT to make informative graphics in answers. Claude's are better, faster, and just happen when the answer warrants one.
Claude’s Diagram Feature Simplifies Complex Answers Instantly
The new Claude feature of creating helpful explanatory diagrams in its answers to explain things to you is just fantastic. It's fast, clear, and is great as a way to rapidly get the gist of a complex answer.
Rising Nuclear Plant Costs Threaten US Energy Future
Nick is a nuclear expert who wrestles with that most important yet underemphasized issue of nuclear in the US: Continually rising construction costs.
Under
Climate folks: Who are the experts on how undersea cable data is used to measure North Atlantic salinity and currents, and detect potential AMOC weakening?
AI Alignment Should Prioritize Pro‑social Values over Owners
Fascinating and important research. As I've said lately, we don't want to align AI to its creators or its owners. The ideal alignment of AI is to a pro-social set of values. This suggests that such alignment is happening and...
Humans Will Continue Overseeing AI for Years
This is a pretty good way of thinking about this, and leads to the conclusion that humans will remain as overseers of AI for quite a long time to come.
Low AI Doom Probability; Scaling Claims Overlook Core Limits
1. From a bayesian perspective, low p(doom) should be the default. The burden of proof is on those with a high p(doom). They have not made a case that convinces me. 2. AI recursive self-improvement models ignore so much hard stuff....
Benchmark Flaw Slashes AI Progress Estimates, Undermines METR Predictions
Correcting for this AI benchmark error: - Cuts the length of task the AI can accomplish by a factor of 7. - Cuts the historical AI improvement rate by a factor of 3. This is one of many reasons I don't think...
AlphaFold Enhances Experiments, Sparks Research, Yet Misses Early Drug Impact
Nice to see empirical study of how our most impressive breakthrough in AI for biology is impacting science. Point 1 is important for those who dream that AGI or ASI will just solve all of science by thinking. They won't....
LLMs Out‑Persuade Human Campaign Ads, Raising AI Risks
Hyperpersuasive AIs - used for political reasons, criminal reasons, or commercial ones - are a plausible AI risk. A number of studies have found that LLMs are more persuasive than humans. This one finds that 4 US LLMs are more...
Benchmarks Overstate AI Progress Despite Ongoing Improvements
AI is amazing and constantly improving. And there's reason to believe that the benchmarks exaggerate progress in various ways. Another example today.
Submarine Reactors Prove SMRs Work, but Cost Skyrockets
Great perspective on the argument that naval submarine nuclear reactors prove that SMRs can work. Turns out they are crazy expensive. (Though this probably exaggerates cost somewhat.)
Home Robots Face Precision, Utilization, and Privacy Hurdles
I want to elaborate on this. A couple different concerns about the household humanoid robot scenarios: 1. Extremely high precision requirements. The tolerance for error in home environments is going to be low. AI systems and robotic systems don't start out...
Low AI Doom Boosted by OpenClaw Optimism Despite Weak Security
I have a very low AI p(doom). But it's lifted a bit by the enthusiasm about OpenClaw, and willingness to embrace it with a terrible security model.
China Emerges as War’s Biggest Winner, US Falters
No. China is the big winner. Putin will still lose in Ukraine. But Xi looks increasingly stable and sane to the world, as the US looks worse and worse, and weakens and distracts itself. China's EV industry stands to benefit...
AI Progress Is Collaborative, Not a US‑China Race
I think highly of Vinod but am skeptical of this very common AI viewpoint. First, it's proving difficult for anyone to really break out of the AI pack. AI models are much more similar than they are different. There will...
Now's the Second Best Time to Buy an EV
The best time to buy an EV was before the oil crisis. The second best time to buy an EV...
Israel Targets Iran’s Power, Not Its People
There is little evidence that the Israeli government cares about the Iranian people. They care about destroying and suppressing Iran's military and economy and ability to influence the region. Those are not the same thing.
Renewables, Not Nuclear, Are Displacing China's Coal Fastest
That impacts coal and gas demand but not oil demand. It's also wrong in terms of what's happening. I love nuclear as part of the solution. But look at the country building the most nuclear, China, and you see more...
Norway Leads, Many Nations Surge Toward EV Dominance
These are the countries building resilience against future oil shocks. And just getting cooler cheaper cars.
China's EV Surge Cuts Fuel Demand, Drives Oil Decoupling
China is working on decoupling itself from dependence on the global oil market. All while making cars that are quieter, cleaner, cheaper, and just plain cooler than the gasoline cars of the past. Trucks now too.
Aggressive EV Adopters Cushion Oil Price Shocks; US Lags
Countries that have adopted electric vehicles the most aggressively will suffer the least from oil price spikes. The US, of course, is not one of those. [Corrected graph.] https://t.co/jl1blEELO0
Renewables and EVs: Natural Hedges Against Fossil Price Swings
Renewables are a hedge against volatile coal and gas prices. Electric vehicles are a hedge against volatile oil / gasoline prices.
Solar Remains Top‑rated, yet GOP Vilifies It
Interestingly, solar never got polarized among the US populace. For 20 years, it's polled as the most popular energy source in the US, by wide margins, across the country. It's just that certain members of the GOP political class hated...
LevelTen Index Misreads Solar Prices, Not Actual Costs
Okay. I've been seeing this make the rounds. It is just a large misunderstanding of the second graph, to the extent that it's drawing the wrong conclusions. The price of electricity from solar and wind in the US *has* flatlined...
Hedge Funds Care About Clean Energy's Cost Advantage
Trivia: The first time I gave a talk that said clean energy was just going to win on cost, with hardly a mention of climate, was at a @Scaramucci SALT conference. I just figured hedge fund managers would care a...
Clean Energy Now Cheaper Than Fossil, Outpacing Military Budgets
It's always been the case that the way we win on climate is just to make clean energy the cheapest option. That trend has been clear for 15+ years. Now that crossover is happening. Policy still matters, but the most...
Electric Fleets Win on Cost per Mile, Outpacing Personal EVs
Commercial electric vehicles will take over faster than personal vehicles. Fleets care about cost per mile. And electric drive trains already win there.
Space Data Centers Demand Unprecedented Scaling
Nothing impossible here. But many things need to scale in unprecedented ways for space based data centers to happen.
Voters Favor AI Data Centers Powered by Clean Energy
Voters are dramatically more receptive to AI data centers near them if they'll be powered by clean energy. Industry take note. [Blue Rose Research, Feb 2026] https://t.co/2gsbeHtYMv
Cooling Credits Offer 1‑Million‑to‑One Climate Impact
A million to one ratio is pretty sweet, tbh. Proud to buy cooling credits from these guys - paying to reflect a miniscule fraction of sunlight back into space. The only possible way to halt climate change at 1.5C.
Scale Up, Shift Risk: Fix Nuclear Incentives
I want nuclear to succeed. And right now almost every nuclear project in the Western world is an unmitigated disaster. The only way out of this is to both fix the economic incentives (customers can not hold the bag for...
Flatlined Power Output Signals Efficiency, Not Decline
Demand is what dominates these electricity charts. Supply has followed demand in the US. Stop posting flatlined generation graphs as if they're evidence of US decline or stagnation. They're evidence of US efficiency and a switch to a knowledge economy.
Batteries Will Outpace Solar as Energy’s Top Technology
Batteries are the most important and fastest scaling energy technology of the 21st century. They're destined to be even bigger and more important than solar.
Primary Energy Misleads; Seek More Accurate Efficiency Metrics
Primary energy is a terrible measure that glazes fossil fuels, most of whose energy is lost as waste heat. Here's how we can do better.
Global Heating Uses More Energy, yet Cooling Hurts the Poor
Heating is a larger global energy use than cooling. But the cooling burden falls disproportionately on the world's poor.
Tesla Robotaxi Likely by 2026, Timeline Remains Uncertain
Tesla will get to a working robotaxi eventually, but it's difficult to say when. My 50th percentile is end of 2026, but the variance is high. It could be in a few months. It could be a few years. We'd...
Rising Energy Demand Calls for Cutting Red Tape
This is the important energy graph, not the one showing generation flat. We've had a couple decades of little to no demand growth. But now that we have growing demand again, we must cut the red tape and build.
