OpenAI vs Anthropic: Divergent Philosophies for Safe AI Behavior
Fascinating comparison of OpenAI and Anthropic's philosophical approaches to getting good behavior out of ChatGPT and Claude.
Researchers Prefer Automating Writing, Not Idea Generation
The researchers I know are far more likely to love this than hate it. You really think people enjoy the process of writing papers vs the actual hypothesis generation and designing & steering the research? Automate everything that can...
China’s Battery and EV Exports Surpass Solar, Defying Tariffs
China's cleantech exports are surging. A couple observations: 1. All of this is from before the US invasion of Iran and current oil price spike. We should expect these numbers to keep growing, especially EVs. 2. US tariffs haven't stopped China's...
High Prices May Accelerate Oil Demand Peak
Unlikely, IMHO. On pre-war path we were still 5+ years away from the likely global peak of oil consumption. But if the crisis extends high prices for years, and accelerates switching to electric transport, that will accelerate. Too soon to...
Winter Power Gaps Demand Clean‑Firm Energy and Grid Scale
Solar and wind are making remarkable progress. The day/night cycle will be solved by current economic battery trends. The real long term challenge has always been winter: Those dark winter days or weeks when the wind also fails. For that...
DoD Can Outsource Custom AI, Conflict Publicized
Yes. Ultimately, DoD can pay x or Palantir or someone else to develop custom AI models for them, for example. The most important part of the Anthropic - DoD conflict was elevating some of the issues to the public, the...
Improved Algorithms Can Counteract Social Media Polarization
Fantastic work here. Social media algorithms polarize us. And it turns out better algorithms can do the opposite.
AI Can Strengthen Politics If We Choose Wisely
I absolutely love this. AI is an incredible tool. There's every reason to believe that we *could* use it to strengthen and improve our institutions, our politics, and our political process. To do so, we have to make some wise...
AI Becomes Society’s New Horizontal Infrastructure
This is so well put. AI will be as ubiquitous in future societal advances and catastrophes as electricity or books. It's just a new, horizontal part of society's infrastructure.
AI Output Is Protected Speech, Limiting US Regulation
This is the right take. AI output is speech. The US government, from Federal to State to local, has little power to regulate it. You can probably address some harms via tort law (e.g., Meta's recent cases). But in the US...
Treat AI Like Technology, Not a Weapon of Mass Destruction
AI is much more like the internet, computers, smartphones, and books than it is like nuclear or biological weapons. This should inform our thinking about how much power we give governments over it. Forecasts of AI resembling a weapon of...
Government AI Control Outweighs Market Competition Concerns
Agree. Strong government controls over AI should concern us more than market competition between AI companies. Even as we acknowledge that market competition between AI companies brings its own risks.
Scientists Move Minuscule Antimatter in Space's Void
Science is epically cool. Making the emptiest place in the solar system to move the tiniest, tiniest amount of antimatter.
Ukraine's Strikes Cut 40% of Russia's Oil Exports
Ukraine struck another Russian export terminal today. Reuters calculates that 40% of Russian oil export capacity is currently offline. Ukrainian sanctions at work.
High‑exposure Automation Can Raise Wages and Jobs
AI can boost jobs: "Partial automation (high exposure) can raise worker productivity and wages because workers reallocate time to the remaining high-value; if demand elasticity is high, this can lead to both more hiring and higher wages. So “high exposure”...
Oil Demand Peaks by 2030, Gas Demand Rises Onward
Yes. This has been my model for a decade. Oil is approaching peak demand. Perhaps 2030. Natural gas demand will continue to grow well beyond oil.
Scaling Alone Won’t Fix LLM Limitations, Need New Algorithms
At least part of the answer is that scaling isn't all that matters. There are real limitations and deficits that LLMs have that require algorithmic changes to address.
Algorithms Shape Perception, Fueling Misinformation and Polarization
The algorithm is the biggest driver of misinformation, and perhaps of polarization. The selection of what people see, even if the individual articles are narrowly true, distorts perception of the overall landscape of reality.
Current AI Limits Keep Humans Essential, Slowing ASI Takeoff
So far, the below seems true. I don't think that's a fundamental characteristic of AI, but it seems be how the current architecture leans. That's one reason I believe that humans will continue to be vital to progress, and...
Brief 5‑MeO‑DMT Trip Yields Month‑Long Antidepressant Boost
One of the most remarkable things about 5-meo-DMT as an antidepressant is that the psychoactive experience is so brief. 10 minute peak, perhaps. 20 min total. And people seldom remember it well. Yet it has possibly the largest anti-depressant effect...
Ukraine's Military Outpaces US and Israel in Modernization
Ukraine's military is moving into the future faster than any other on earth. Faster than the US. Faster than Israel.
Ukraine's Home‑grown Weapons Prove Funding Will Secure Victory
Ukraine have now demonstrated they can design and build the weapons to cripple Russia and win this war. They deserve the funding to see this through to completion. Fund Ukraine, and they will win.
Littlebird AI Raises Funds for Proactive Personal Assistant
Delighted for my friends at @LittlebirdAI for their raise. This is a personal agent that gets to know you and what you're doing across your computer, and uses that knowledge to help you out, often proactively. Been using it for...
Helium Shortage From Iran War Won’t Halt AI Chips
Helium supply shortages due to the Iran war don't seem to be a threat to AI chip production right now. https://t.co/x0EWX4XCg7
Debating AI May Dismantle Conspiracy Beliefs
AI could actually help improve our disinfo and conspiracy-filled public sphere. [And yes, the opposite, LLMs for hyperpersuasion and disinfo, remains a concern.]
Ukraine Launches Kinetic Sanctions on Russian Oil Exports
Ukraine imposes kinetic sanctions on Russian oil exports. They increasingly have the ability to do this at scale, and to destroy refineries and factories crucial to the Russian war effort. This particular port is further from Ukraine than Moscow is.
Ukrainian Flamingo Beats Tomahawk in Range, Warhead, Cost
To be fair the Ukrainian Flamingo does have longer range and a larger warhead than the Tomahawk at a much lower cost. https://t.co/yfGe0ZD0GM
EV Owners Forget Gas Stations Offer Instant, Universal Refueling
What's a gas station? I just plug my car in at home. You mean you have to ... go somewhere special to add range to your car? How interesting.
User Praises New Notification Sorting, Wants Android Sync
Hey @nikitabier - A compliment and two feature requests: 1. Compliment: The way per-post notifications are sorted on web is so much better than it was a year ago. I love that it's sorted by some sense of how much...
The Final 1% of AI Accuracy Costs Exponential Effort
Under-discussed point. The scaling laws aren't quite constant across scales. As AI models get better (as loss approaches zero, or the entropy floor), improvements get harder and harder. You hit even worse than logarithmic diminishing returns. Ultra high accuracy...
Create New Alliance, Excluding US and Hungary
No brainer. Honestly just create a new alliance and everyone but Hungary and the US can join it. They'll ask to join later.
AI Becomes Useful Fast, Reliability Takes Ages
Lots of lessons here for expectations about how fast AI capabilities take off. One thing I learned from watching self driving: Driving down AI error rates to near zero is a looooong process. You get to something useful fast. You...
5‑MeO‑DMT May Outperform Psilocybin as Antidepressant
I often say that psilocybin mushrooms (a single large macro dose) are the most potent anti-depressant known to science. The truth is that 5-meo-DMT, the compound Bryan tried today, actually tests even stronger. But there are only two papers on...
Tesla Secretly Uses LiDAR for Vision Training, Not Production
This is getting dunked somewhat unfairly. Tesla is using LiDAR to get training data to improve their vision-only systems. That should raise some eyebrows - LiDAR is clearly valuable in ways Elon denies. But it's not the same as using...
China No Fixed Taiwan Timeline, No 2027 Invasion Plan
The US intelligence community now assesses that China has no fixed timeline for unification with Taiwan and that no invasion of Taiwan is planned for 2027. I'm no China expert but this dovetails with how I see Xi and the upside...
AI Fact‑Checking Is Making Twitter Surprisingly Truthful
Contra my expectations, AI might just make social media better. There's obviously lots of slop, and I worry about disinfo and targeted persuasion. And every day I see Grok used for fact checking here on twitter, and it's almost always...
Marines Forced Through Hormuz, Risking Missile Attacks
Marines can't get to Kharg Island without getting through the Strait of Hormuz, which would expose Navy ships to missile and drone attacks.
AI Futures Are Uncertain; Embrace Evidence‑Based Updates
This is honest and intellectually humble. None of us know with certainty what the trajectory of AI capabilities (or impacts) is. We have suspicions, models, forecasts. But it's essential to understand that there's a distribution of possibilities. And to update...
Assess if Screenshot Faithfully Represents HamandCheese’s Comments
Read @hamandcheese's full comments to the @axios reporter below, and then see if you think this screenshot accurately or fairly reflects what he said. https://t.co/yiUivUlQpS
Humanoid Robot Demos Thrive only in Controlled Labs
This is one reason I'm suspicious of most humanoid robotics companies today. I've seen lots of canned demos in perfect or near perfect conditions. Very very few in uncontrolled settings that were even the slightest bit impressive.
Malaria Decline in Sub‑Saharan Africa Marks Progress, yet Challenges Remain
Sub-Saharan Africa has made incredible progress on Malaria. And there is still so far to go. The world really is getting better. And the work is so very far from finished. https://t.co/tTKVS5Pegh
Good AI Teams Must Outpace Bad Actors' AI
The only thing that can stop a bad guy with an AI is a good guy with an AI. Or many good guys with AI. We need to find ways to incentivize that, and build our detection, defense, and intervention capacities...
Expert Advice: Cut Power Costs, Boost Grid with Datacenters
Follow Dr. @JaneAFlegal if you want extremely well-informed takes from a legit expert on how to lower electricity prices and use datacenters to strengthen the US grid and power system.
Li‑ion Batteries Now Last Decades, Not Just Thousands of Cycles
Amazing. Lithium ion batteries were once good for maybe 1,000-2,000 full discharge cycles. Now we're reaching multi-decade lifespans.
Storage, Smart EV Charging, and Datacenters Boost Grid Efficiency
Three things that can help us get better use out of the US grid: 1. Energy storage (allows you to fill up when the grid is underutilized, and avoid hitting the grid when it's stresed). 2. Datacenters. (If done cleverly.) 3. Smart charging...
Ethanol Mandates Harm Food Security, Offer No Energy Benefit
Ethanol mandates are in direct conflict with feeding the world, have no impact on American energy security, and are at best neutral for climate (probably negative). Kill them with fire. Sink them with the Jones Act.
Texas Leads Clean Energy Thanks to Deregulated Market
Texas is the clean energy capital of the United States. And a chunk of that is because of their easy permitting, relatively ample transmission, and highly deregulated electricity market. Abundance thinking in energy works.
Fertilizer Shortage Hits Poor Nations, Rich Remain Unscathed
The fertilizer crisis brewing because of Hormuz is going to be felt predominantly by people in some of the poorest nations on earth. Americans will only barely notice. Why? 1. The US, China, Europe, and other rich regions apply so much...
Our ROI Dwarfs Zuck’s Scale Acquihire
To be fair, this is still infinitely better ROI than Zuck has seen on his acquihire of half of Scale.
Media Exploits Our Primitive Brains with Distant Crime
IMHO distorted crime perceptions are driven by how media dissolves distance. The human brain didn't evolve to consume graphic news stories about people we'd never meet. We process a TV or social media news story of a murder as if...