Hormuz Blockade Triggers Looming Global Commodity Shortages
✍️ Martin Wolf @ftopinion 👉”First came the war. Then came the blockade. Now come the shortages. 👉”The tankers full of essential commodities — oil, liquid natural gas, urea, refined oil products, hydrogen, helium and so forth — have not sailed through the Strait of Hormuz since the end of February. 👉Those that left before the closure have mostly arrived. 👉”As inventories are also drawn down, we will 💥move into an era of physical shortages.💥”
Xi Holds the Cards as US Bravado Masks Weakness
✍️ Gideon Rachman 👉 US president’s trademark bravado will be used to obscure the weakness of his position. Chinese are unlikely to rub his nose in it. 💥The reality, however, is that it is Xi Jinping who “has the cards”...
Cautious Buyers Offset Global Oil Supply Shock
Astounding🤷♂️ 👉”US-led exports and China-led cautious buying patterns among importers have, in effect, been 💥shielding the world from the supply shock💥 👉“The actions of cautious buyers have therefore exceeded, by 4.1mn barrels a day, the 6.8mn net contraction of seaborne export supply...
Protectionism Deepens Poverty in Global Crises
Protectionism makes everyone poorer during global shocks via @FT ✍️Dr Ngozi WTO DG @wto https://t.co/FJktdmvyWF
Tariff Legal Carousel: Multiple Statutes Keep Rates Alive
✍️Alan Wolff @piie on Trumpian tariffs' legal carousel: 1⃣IEEPA blocked? Use Section 122. 2⃣Section 122 expires? Use Nat'l Defense, Section 232. 3⃣Need a new carte blanche? Try Section 301. PSA: US tariffs are here to stay (but not too high to reduce affordability...
Court Rejects Tariff Claim, Trade Deficit Not Crisis
Shocker: a 2026 trade deficit is not a 1974-style Balance of Payment crisis🤷♂️ 👉”Lawyers representing the businesses bringing the case argued that a trade deficit and a serious balance-of-payments crisis were not the same” ➡️ But probably very little impact on tariffs. ✍️Timothy...
He Keeps Backing Down on Tariff Threats
Has anyone kept track of how many times he’s climbed down from threats? And here I’m just talking about tariff threats. https://t.co/GyFi4wJPQo
Human Strategy Needed as AI Falls Short of Expectations
✍️ Gillian Tett words of wisdom: @gilliantett @ftopinion 👉“intelligent machines do not automatically deploy themselves either for good or bad. 💥Human strategy is crucial.” 👉A survey from Hyland, for example, says that only 45 per cent of businesses say AI is delivering...
Financial Crisis Inevitable: Prepare Now, Pre‑emptive Action Impossible
✍️ Martin Wolf warns: 💥Prepare for a financial crisis. @martinwolf_ @ftopinion 👉chances of pre-emptive action (to close imbalances) “are close to zero” 👉”Whatever ability we had to do this has vanished in an age of populism, nationalism and multiple follies” 👉”The second best...
Remote Rural Workers Feeling Stuck as Quit Rates Drop
✍️ @sarahoconnor_ @ftopinion 💥Quit rates↘️ in US &UK 👉”…people who switched to remote work during the pandemic and moved to rural areas might now be a little trapped in those jobs” https://t.co/VM01o0P5mu
Traditional Publishing Delays: Over Six Months Post‑manuscript
Next one is a more trad book. Takes >6months even after the manuscript is done?
Timothy Taylor Praises World War Trade in Review
Timothy Taylor writes a nice review of my book, World War Trade. 🔗 https://t.co/XORpUAKycd https://t.co/T6jbzS7isN
Economic Leverage Becomes Weapon Amid Global Instability
✍️ UK Foreign Minister 👉”Instability and volatility are the new normal and countries across the world are increasingly reaching for economic tools to exert global leverage, 💥whether to coerce or constrain. https://t.co/GzEYSjon4v
New Free Factful Friday Now on Substack, LinkedIn Tomorrow
My new Factful Friday is up on (free) Substack. https://t.co/X786SgsWGu On LI tomorrow as usual. https://t.co/rEepEZYbxQ
Author Presents New Book at Peterson Institute, DC
Just done presenting my book at Peterson in Washington DC! 👉Watch here:. I start at 12min into the hour https://t.co/f6ENqzd7Jr cc: @PIIE @IMD_Bschool @cepr_org @AdamPosen @adam_tooze https://t.co/GMqLoy6HHT