Tariffs Outpace Tax Cuts, Raising Net Costs
🎩 @wsj 👉PSA: tariffs are federal sales taxes. “The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that taxpayers will receive about a $188 billion reduction in federal tax liability for 2025” 👉”Those refunds and tax benefits, however, have been more than offset by the $195 billion in new tariffs collected in 2025. 💥”Things will get worse in 2026. Trump’s tariffs will generate $331 billion this year, while the CBO estimates the new tax cuts will save taxpayers $230 billion. Families and businesses will be worse off on net.
Ceasefire And
✍️ FT editorial 🤔 👉”A prolonged uneasy ceasefire with a blockade may push the war off the front pages and 💥allow Trump to walk away. 👉 the framework deal 👉”It would start with the US easing the blockade and Iran reopening the Strait....
AI's Net Job Impact Hinges on Demand vs Productivity
Excellent data-illustrated explainer of AI job impact ✍️ @jburnmurdoch 👉“Can AI do this task?” But AI🔜 job per sale ↘️ BUT cost+quality+convinece↗️ SO sales↗️ so jobs may ↗️. 💥AI 🔜 demand & productivity:which wins determines job impact👌 https://t.co/eIlhOyEEet
Trump’s False Price Promises Fuel Voter Anger, Zero Inflation Expectations
Fascinating Krugman Substack: https://t.co/6jRnFjpU3x 👉"So what explains the public’s anger? My hypothesis is that it has a lot to do with the fabulist promises Trump made during the 2024 campaign, when he asserted that grocery prices would come down “on Day...
Markets Already Discounted Trump's Post‑2025 Tariff Threats
Not sure I follow you on this one. After April 2025 markets largely discounted Trump‘s tariff threats. See my ebook, World War Trade https://t.co/WUh40aRFn0
AI and Globalization Threaten White‑Collar Jobs and Welfare State
Yes indeed, upcoming “revolt”: my 2019 OUP book calls it the “Globotics Upheaval” 👉”Computing power is dissolving humans' monopoly on thinking, enabling AI-trained computers to compete for many of the same white-collar jobs. 👉”The combination of globalization and robotics is creating the...
China’s Population Rapidly Ages and Declines
Not a new thoughts, but still stark🎩 @FTAlphaville 💥China is aging & shrinking — fast https://t.co/riFE9HYJoP
AI Tools Empower New Wave of Bank Hackers
Forewarned is fore armed. New level of hacking of banks could come from these AI advances. 👉Cops & robbers when the robbers get a new tool. https://t.co/GKklqa2Kai
China Tightens Export Controls to Counter US Leverage
We’ve seen this movie: 👉China ramps up export controls ahead of Xi-Trump summit to create bargaining chips that will be traded away 👉See Chap 6 in my ebook for account of run up to Busan Summit 2025 🤔 But also prepares weapon to...
From Kennedy’s Optimism to Trump’s Victim Narrative via Globotics
My new Factful Friday in up on (free) Substack; tomorrow on LI. 👉Kennedy’s confidence turned into Trump’s victimhood when the Globotics shocks (globalisation and robotics) hit the US middle class hard and social policy failed to help them adjust. 👉This week’s...
Crypto's Fiat Off
👉✍️ @rbrtrmstrng 👉The point of vulnerability is the “off-ramp” between the crypto system and the traditional financial system. 💥The Iranians “really need to be able to use the funds to buy things, and you more or less have to do that...
Regional Blocs Form New Multi‑Hub Global Trade Order
In case you missed the posting of my new eBook over Easter weekend👇https://t.co/AzOGN20mu3 The April 2025 US tariffs triggered global trade conflict. This column introduces World War Trade: Conflict, Containment, and the Emergent World Trading Order, a new CEPR Rapid...
US Tariff Spike Vanishes by Lunch, Market Wins
A new Factful Friday is up! (I'm catching up for the lost weeks.) https://t.co/fwpvB8ElNV 👉At 12:01am on 9 April 2025, US tariffs hit historic highs. The biggest American tariff hike ever. 👉By lunchtime, most of them were gone. ⭐Grievance-fuelled tariffs had collided with financial...
Tariffs Became Missiles, Sparking a Trade World War
The World War Trade 🎙️ podcast is up! 👉"If tariffs were missiles, the whole world would know that a world war started on April 2, 2025. That is the day Donald Trump launched tariffs against almost every nation in the world." 👉"Hours later, China put...
Predictable, Rules‑based Mega‑regional Pacts Lure Nations Away From Superpowers
EU, CPTPP & USMCA are deep mega regionals but latter no longer rules-based. Nations seeking to diversify away from the giants are attracted by arrangements that 1) are rules-based & have worked for years, 2) don’t involve US or CN,...
New Ebook “World War Trade” Discussed on Podcast
Is there a podcast on my new ebook, World War Trade? Of course ⭐Tim Phillips of VoxTalks & I chat about the book for 20min https://t.co/cUYRcRu5gS
China's Rise: From Free Rider to Pharma Innovator
From free rider to innovator: How China became a global pharmaceutical powerhouse | @cepr_org https://t.co/PBOhOKKbHX
Higher Fertility Slows Growth Without Immigration, Cuts Labor Participation
🤔 ✍️ @voxeu without immigration, “higher fertility would depress GDP per capita growth for roughly 50 years.” 💥more births would likely lower force participation among women & older workers. https://t.co/VubvO2dK8V
Tariffs Served as Political Theatre, Not Economic Policy
The tariffs weren't trade policy, IMHO, they were tariff theatre. There were no specific goals, no studies, not even the slightest economic thought behind their design. > Is it a category error to evaluate them as economic policy. >They max'd political...
Trump's Trade Shock Spurs Global Free‑Trade Alliances
I presented my forthcoming eBook, World War Trade, in Paris last week. Here is the first coverage i've seen 💪 ✍️Guillaume de Calignon @gcalignon « Le choc douanier de Donald Trump pousse le reste du monde à se rapprocher .... les pays...
Trump's Volatile Tariffs Cripple U.S. Industrial Competitiveness
The problem was that Trump put the big tariffs on the upstream inputs that would’ve helped America industry be competitive. With those high tariffs it makes American industry less competitive with imports from the other industrial powers like China Korea,...
LLMs Offer Hope for a Less Corrosive Information Revolution
LLMs to the rescue of reason? ✍️ @jburnmurdoch @ftopinion 💥”there is cause for optimism that the next information revolution may take us in a less corrosive direction” https://t.co/C5DIGyCxew
Trump’s Tariffs Were Symbolic, Global Trade Endured
Factful Friday is up! After a book-writing hiatus, it's back (and based on snippets from my forthcoming eBook, World War Trade). 👉Why didn’t Donald Trump’s tariffs melt down the world trade system? This Factful Friday, based on snippets from my...
U.S. 10‑Year Treasury Nears 4.5% Threshold
The other chart we all gotta check daily. 👉 U.S. 10 Year Treasury 💥Almost hit 4.5% today😦 https://t.co/DVVhNkPrqm
Huge Supply Shock Triggers Market Overreaction, Says BlackRock
Rick Rieder of BlackRock told Unhedged. 👉 “This is one of the largest supply shocks we’ve seen in a generation, 👉markets have had to react quickly, 💥 when markets move quickly, they overreact.” https://t.co/RRf6LgSI91
US Unveils Section 301 Trade Action Against 16 Nations
The US drops Section 301 trade bombshell on 16 countries | Article | Hinrich Foundation https://t.co/d4DGMQE6Zp
You Must Choose: Reduce NA Trade or Cut China
“You can have less Mexico and Canada, 👉or you can have less China, 💥but you can’t have both.” ✍️Antonio Ortiz Mena, a former Mexican diplomat and professor at Georgetown University. https://t.co/h15MGpAnEg
Equal Tariffs, but China Parity May Backfire
Memo to self: file under unintended consequences. ✍️ @ft “The tariff structure puts all countries on an equal footing. . 💥”But parity with China is not necessarily good news.” For other countries 🎩📈 @SimonEvenett @IMD_Bschool https://t.co/OCibAcj1Ms
Security Leverage Outweighs Europe’s Economic Edge
Yes Europe has supply chain leverage over US; but US has escalation dominance over Europe on security policy. 👉 Security leverage trumps economic leverage https://t.co/OaW6h9iYDf https://t.co/yclXueiGNc
IEEPA Cuts Trump Tariffs, Boost
🎩 ✍️ @nytimes 1. IEEPA = 1/4 of Trumpian tariffs; 2. Rates were coming down; exemptions expanding = Affordability TACO under way since summer 2025 https://t.co/OpllUV99nH
Supreme Court Threatens Trump-Era Trade Deals Under IEEPA
Are Trumpian trade deals valid❓ ✍️ @nytimes”The fate of those deals is in doubt now with the Supreme Court decision, because many of the deals were premised on tariff rates under the IEEPA law” https://t.co/ltr9FW5Tl4