Richard Baldwin

Richard Baldwin

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Professor/economist; globalization/trade impacts on supply chains.

Higher Fertility Slows Growth Without Immigration, Cuts Labor Participation
SocialMar 31, 2026

Higher Fertility Slows Growth Without Immigration, Cuts Labor Participation

🤔 ✍️ @voxeu without immigration, “higher fertility would depress GDP per capita growth for roughly 50 years.” 💥more births would likely lower force participation among women & older workers. https://t.co/VubvO2dK8V

By Richard Baldwin
Tariffs Served as Political Theatre, Not Economic Policy
SocialMar 31, 2026

Tariffs Served as Political Theatre, Not Economic Policy

The tariffs weren't trade policy, IMHO, they were tariff theatre. There were no specific goals, no studies, not even the slightest economic thought behind their design. > Is it a category error to evaluate them as economic policy. >They max'd political...

By Richard Baldwin
Trump's Trade Shock Spurs Global Free‑Trade Alliances
SocialMar 31, 2026

Trump's Trade Shock Spurs Global Free‑Trade Alliances

I presented my forthcoming eBook, World War Trade, in Paris last week. Here is the first coverage i've seen 💪 ✍️Guillaume de Calignon @gcalignon « Le choc douanier de Donald Trump pousse le reste du monde à se rapprocher .... les pays...

By Richard Baldwin
Trump's Volatile Tariffs Cripple U.S. Industrial Competitiveness
SocialMar 29, 2026

Trump's Volatile Tariffs Cripple U.S. Industrial Competitiveness

The problem was that Trump put the big tariffs on the upstream inputs that would’ve helped America industry be competitive. With those high tariffs it makes American industry less competitive with imports from the other industrial powers like China Korea,...

By Richard Baldwin
LLMs Offer Hope for a Less Corrosive Information Revolution
SocialMar 29, 2026

LLMs Offer Hope for a Less Corrosive Information Revolution

LLMs to the rescue of reason? ✍️ @jburnmurdoch @ftopinion 💥”there is cause for optimism that the next information revolution may take us in a less corrosive direction” https://t.co/C5DIGyCxew

By Richard Baldwin
Trump’s Tariffs Were Symbolic, Global Trade Endured
SocialMar 27, 2026

Trump’s Tariffs Were Symbolic, Global Trade Endured

Factful Friday is up! After a book-writing hiatus, it's back (and based on snippets from my forthcoming eBook, World War Trade). 👉Why didn’t Donald Trump’s tariffs melt down the world trade system? This Factful Friday, based on snippets from my...

By Richard Baldwin
U.S. 10‑Year Treasury Nears 4.5% Threshold
SocialMar 27, 2026

U.S. 10‑Year Treasury Nears 4.5% Threshold

The other chart we all gotta check daily. 👉 U.S. 10 Year Treasury 💥Almost hit 4.5% today😦 https://t.co/DVVhNkPrqm

By Richard Baldwin
Huge Supply Shock Triggers Market Overreaction, Says BlackRock
SocialMar 21, 2026

Huge Supply Shock Triggers Market Overreaction, Says BlackRock

Rick Rieder of BlackRock told Unhedged. 👉 “This is one of the largest supply shocks we’ve seen in a generation, 👉markets have had to react quickly, 💥 when markets move quickly, they overreact.” https://t.co/RRf6LgSI91

By Richard Baldwin
US Unveils Section 301 Trade Action Against 16 Nations
SocialMar 17, 2026

US Unveils Section 301 Trade Action Against 16 Nations

The US drops Section 301 trade bombshell on 16 countries | Article | Hinrich Foundation https://t.co/d4DGMQE6Zp

By Richard Baldwin
You Must Choose: Reduce NA Trade or Cut China
SocialMar 16, 2026

You Must Choose: Reduce NA Trade or Cut China

“You can have less Mexico and Canada, 👉or you can have less China, 💥but you can’t have both.” ✍️Antonio Ortiz Mena, a former Mexican diplomat and professor at Georgetown University. https://t.co/h15MGpAnEg

By Richard Baldwin
Equal Tariffs, but China Parity May Backfire
SocialFeb 24, 2026

Equal Tariffs, but China Parity May Backfire

Memo to self: file under unintended consequences. ✍️ @ft “The tariff structure puts all countries on an equal footing. . 💥”But parity with China is not necessarily good news.” For other countries 🎩📈 @SimonEvenett @IMD_Bschool https://t.co/OCibAcj1Ms

By Richard Baldwin
Security Leverage Outweighs Europe’s Economic Edge
SocialFeb 22, 2026

Security Leverage Outweighs Europe’s Economic Edge

Yes Europe has supply chain leverage over US; but US has escalation dominance over Europe on security policy. 👉 Security leverage trumps economic leverage https://t.co/OaW6h9iYDf https://t.co/yclXueiGNc

By Richard Baldwin
IEEPA Cuts Trump Tariffs, Boost
SocialFeb 21, 2026

IEEPA Cuts Trump Tariffs, Boost

🎩 ✍️ @nytimes 1. IEEPA = 1/4 of Trumpian tariffs; 2. Rates were coming down; exemptions expanding = Affordability TACO under way since summer 2025 https://t.co/OpllUV99nH

By Richard Baldwin
Supreme Court Threatens Trump-Era Trade Deals Under IEEPA
SocialFeb 21, 2026

Supreme Court Threatens Trump-Era Trade Deals Under IEEPA

Are Trumpian trade deals valid❓ ✍️ @nytimes”The fate of those deals is in doubt now with the Supreme Court decision, because many of the deals were premised on tariff rates under the IEEPA law” https://t.co/ltr9FW5Tl4

By Richard Baldwin