Fed's Restrictive Stance Drags Homebuilder Stocks Lower
Warsh made it clear in today’s presser that he views current Fed policy restrictive for housing. Irony is that homebuilders, building products, and housing space in general then proceeded to drop more into the red as the presser went on, and interest rates got MORE restrictive.
Homebuilders Slash 2026 Start Growth Forecast From 7% to 2%
Homebuilders we survey came into 2026 expecting 7% growth in single-family starts for the year. We asked them again in May, and they’re now planning for just 2% growth, which we think is still too optimistic. https://t.co/LZj2ktj7Gp
IBP Earnings Reveal Weak April for Homebuilders, Census Data Distrusted
Commentary on Installed Building Products earnings call right now confirms pretty weak April for production homebuilders. $IBP Also interesting hearing C-suite repeatedly say - “we don’t put much trust in recent Census housing starts data.”
Homebuilder Earnings Show No Improvement over Soft March
Messaging throughout homebuilder earnings this week has been that April was similar to March. That’s not exactly good news given March was soft.
Institutional Investors Are Boosting Housing Supply by Selling Homes
Reminder that big institutional investors also add to housing supply. Dallas Tanner (CEO – Invitation Homes $INVH): 04/30/26 earnings call: “We’ve sold almost 20,000 homes back into the marketplace in the history of our business.”
Austin Housing Market Hits Stabilization, Near Bottom
#Austin housing market finally approaching bottom. CEO of Taylor Morrison 1Q26 earnings call: “Austin actually finally saw what I would say some stabilization in backlog, had the best sales month in quite some time, and cancelations seemed to stabilize.” Checks w/our analysis...
Century Communities' ARM Share Jumps to 30%
In 1Q26, adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) accounted for ~30% of mortgage volume at Century Communities (the 9th-largest builder in the US), up a bit from 25% in 4Q25 and up massively from less than 5% in 1Q25. $CCS
Homebuilders Cut Spec Inventory, Boosting Margins
Homebuilders like $DHI and $TMHC reporting sharp, swift declines in unsold finished homes during earnings so far is good news for the sector. Excess spec inventory has been one of the biggest drags on margins in recent years.
D.R. Horton Flags Housing Softness in Software‑linked Markets
Software sector worries showing up a bit in D.R. Horton $DHI homebuilder C-suite earnings commentary today: “Perhaps a little bit of softness in a few of our [housing] markets that have kind of a traditionally heavy exposure to the software industry.”
Housing Hope Delayed One Year, Still On Track
Good housing read from @conorsen. Housing hope delayed a year but not totally derailed feels about right. https://t.co/3R3f8NDfvG
San Francisco Agents Unanimously See Price Rises, National Confidence Low
Nationally, only 27% of the resale agents we just surveyed said home prices were mostly increasing month over month. TOTALLY different story in San Francisco, where 100% of agents said prices rising. Not sure I’ve seen that high a conviction in...
True Housing Shortage only 1 Million, Not 10 Million
Our housing shortage estimate is 1 million, and it’s shrinking. This 10 million figure far exceeds all other estimates I’ve ever come across over the years.
March Home Sales Miss Warns of April Slowdown
Today’s March miss on existing home sales is concerning, as most those closings were negotiated and mortgage rate locked well before housing demand cooled post-Iran mortgage rate spike. Not a great sign for what’s to come in April, which we...
Construction Costs Surge After Energy Shock, Builders Confirm
Good read from @_willparker_ on construction cost increases happening post-energy shock. Homebuilders we surveyed in early April noted similar sentiment (several quotes below). https://t.co/QBhJxv5lrC https://t.co/9ICS9qHWaR
Rising Gas Prices Threaten Out‑skirt Home Sales
So many homebuilders ventured further out into ‘drive until you qualify’ submarkets this cycle as affordability got squeezed. This gas price chart is going to now weigh on those communities, adding incremental pressure to both new home sales and starts...