Control the Process, Exercise Your Legal Rights Aggressively
In special situations, process is the only variable you control. Make sure your legal rights get as much exercise as an ITM call.
Maintain Credit Spreads, Avoid Blowouts for Weeks
Just keep credit spreads from blowing out for a few more weeks is all I ask.
Buying Deep Into Undervalued Cash‑Rich Marketplace
Bought a lot today. And all week. A marketplace trading below 1x trailing EV/aEBITDA with nearly two-thirds of its market cap in net cash. The lower it goes, the more I buy.
Weedmaps Founders Claim Windfall Bypasses Ad Giants
And Weedmaps’ opportunistic co-founders want you to believe this windfall won’t accrue to scaled advertising marketplace leaders.
Trump Offers 15 Conditions to Iran to End War
ToI reporting: "...Trump’s administration has conveyed 15 conditions to Iran as its terms for ending the current war, Israel’s Channel 12 reports,...[t]he conditions appear to cover all of the [US+Israel] war goals,...Trump...to push quickly for “a framework agreement, an [AIP]”
Spotting Double Convexity in Undervalued Delaware Market
There’s having convexity. And then there’s having convexity on top of convexity. The edge is seeing it before the path is obvious. In the rearview mirror, returns always look smaller. I may have discovered a corner of the market that is oddly...
Read Filings: Unlock Hidden Profits in Plain Sight
Reading the filings really can make you a whole lot of money. It’s all in there.
Active Managers Stuck in Cap‑weighted Comfort Zone
The irony of modern markets: “active” investors moored to the same cap-weighted tide they’re meant to transcend—forsaking a risk-adjusted spread for benchmarked comfort. Betas, indeed.
Shrink Position Size as Discount Narrows
Once a security's discount to underwritten fair market value has appropriately narrowed, and thus your margin of safety has diminished, so too should your sizing.
Fortify with Trenches, Reduce Attack Surface
Digging more trenches to minimize attack surfaces. Tryna be a big weiner without any exposed flanks. https://t.co/cOC49oIcJN
Ignore Cost Basis; Focus on Forward Risk/Reward
Taxes aside (if relevant), cost basis shouldn’t drive decisions—only forward risk/reward and objective outlook matter. The stock doesn’t care who you are, when you bought it, or why. Social discussion exists to improve investment process; don’t let a stock become personified.
SEC Filings Reveal Insider Truth Others Overlook
Reading SEC filings that clarify an inside view others remain willfully blind to... how's your Saturday going?
Edge Lies in Better Event Probability, Not Sigma
Black-Scholes starts to break down when a stock stops trading on continuous volatility and starts trading on a mispriced discrete corporate event. In special situations, the edge is rarely in sigma. It’s in underwriting the probability-weighted outcome better than the...
Public Record Undermines Lazy Valuation, Raises Premium Bid Stakes
New on $MAPS: I think the public record is now strong enough to reject lazy, tape-anchored valuation—and strong enough to make a future “premium” bid answer much harder questions than management might like. Linked below. 1/2 https://t.co/ApS7y2tctJ
Upcoming $LE Stub Valuation Offers Pre‑Earnings Tender Opportunity
What's the Land's End $LE stub worth? I guess we'll know next week. If there's any interest I'll write it up, still an opportunity to enter & tender ahead of next Thursday's earnings (where I expect a clean PF bridge...