China's Crude Imports Halved, Driving Global Oil Balance
Chinese seaborne crude imports now down ~50% from pre-war levels, according to latest Kpler tracking. Beijing doing more to balance the Hormuz-starved oil market than the rest of the world combined and no one knows exactly how long they can—or are willing to—keep it up. https://t.co/lOEkSFxJbK
New Hormuz Tracker Shows Transit Types Breakdown
Update to my Hormuz tracker looking at transit count by type ("normal" vs Iranian route vs estimated dark) https://t.co/0Z8j3NFvWb
Step-by-Step Blueprint for Reopening the Strait of Hormuz
My latest contribution the @TheDispatch Energy A Beginner’s Guide to Reopening the Strait One day, some day we’ll get a deal—read my overview of what the arduous and multi-step process to reopening Hormuz will inevitably look like whenever that day comes https://t.co/2Y82kQZMQg
IRGC Claims Missile Strike on US‑owned Container Ship
"Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says it targeted the “US-owned”, Panama-flagged MSC Sariska V container ship with a cruise missile. Iranian media said the IRGC’s move followed an attack on an Iranian ship near Oman. We earlier reported that a cargo...
Hormuz Disruption Risk Jumps to 10‑20% This Year
Prior to this year, I would have put prob there was a material disruption to traffic through Hormuz at ~1% Now, it’s prob 10-20% going forward (higher end over the next 1-2 yrs, lower thereafter)—massive shift in risk outlook for the...
Oil Market Outlook Post‑Hormuz Closure Impacts Canada
Had the opportunity to sit down with @JeyanTVO on @therundowntvo to talk about where we stand in the oil market 3 months into the Strait of Hormuz’s closure, the latest deal optimism, and what it all means for Canada. Airing tomorrow:...
Hormuz VLCC Exits Are Stock Draw, Not Deficit Offset
When people mention the 2 VLCCs (~4 MMbbl) that recently exited Hormuz, they treat it as an offset to the ongoing supply deficit Important to remember that Hormuz exits—at this stage—are just another stock draw Need new empty tankers in to begin...
US Iran Policy Shifts Examined with Chokepoints Author
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest ep of Oil Ground Up, I spoke with @edwardfishman, author of one of my favourite books I read last year, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, about the evolution of US...
Crude Prices Drop on Iran Negotiation Optimism Amid Ongoing Hurdles
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices sink once more on renewed Iran War negotiation optimism, though major diplomatic hurdles remain and the oil market continues to hemorrhage supply. Summary below, full report in reply. https://t.co/uJwazpuze5
China's Crude Import Slump
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗗𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗿 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗰 𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆? Despite a ~40% collapse in Chinese crude imports, data point to massive Chinese SPR releases rather than true demand destruction. Read in full: https://t.co/FyXzWX8Ch4
Full Hormuz Oil Flows Delayed Until 2027, Says ADNOC
Reuters: "Full oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will not return before the first or second quarter of 2027, even if the Middle East conflict ended now, the head of the United Arab Emirates' state oil firm ADNOC said"...
IRGC Overstates Hormuz Ship Transits Compared to Trackers
The IRGC-announced Hormuz ship transit totals are always notably higher than what is captured by ship-tracking sources (including those tracking dark transits) If not explicit exaggeration, they're likely also counting smaller vessels that aren't captured by ship trackers.
US Reinstates Russian Oil Sanctions as Waiver Ends
Interesting, Russian oil is again sanctioned by the US as of today as the waiver—issued in March, extended in April—expires. Also, and I can’t stress this enough, how is it mid-May already?!
Crude Prices Surge Toward $110 Amid Stalled Iran Talks
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈 Crude prices rise back toward $110 and term structure firms again as US-Iran talks stall out and Trump’s trip to China fails to yield any meaningful breakthrough. Summary below, full report in reply....
Hormuz Ship Traffic Split by Type, Direction, Route
Hormuz transit traffic by ship type, direction (in/out), and maritime route—including dark transits (data via @Kpler) https://t.co/WgCsnkRHZL