US SPR Release Ramps Up to Over 1 MMbpd
US SPR release finally picking up to >1 MMbpd. That's more like a proper crisis release (er, exchange)
Brent Futures Hit Highest Since Ceasefire Announcement
Brent crude prompt (June) futures currently at their highest level since the ceasefire was announced. https://t.co/f85nQG5DVC
President's Routine Duties Persist Amid Iran War Energy Shock
This just literally sounds like a pretty core, by this stage routine task of the President of the United States in the 9th week of a war with Iran that has prompted the largest energy supply shock in history. Feels weird...
Followers Fuel Double Growth in Nine Weeks
Holy wow, folks—that’s a big round number, and roughly double where we stood nine weeks ago. 🙏🏻 Immensely and eternally grateful for all of you who follow, share, laugh, debate in good faith, and otherwise enthusiastically watch and analyze the oil...
Closing Hormuz Costs Billions, Not Just Pennies
“Too expensive. I’m a very cost-conscious person” Every day Hormuz remains closed the world loses 13 million barrels of oil, current market price ~$1.35 billion.
Hormuz Crisis Unfolds: Market Calm, Leaders Navigate Shock
🎙️ NEW PODCAST 🎧 On the latest episode of Oil Ground Up, I spoke with @Amena__Bakr about the latest tracking of the Hormuz crisis, the shockingly sanguine market reaction thus far, and how the political and industry leadership across the region...
Iran War Enters Week Nine, Strait of Hormuz Closed
Today marks the start of the 9th week of the Iran War and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. https://t.co/SlkCd7pW0e
Brent Climbs $14 This Week, Hormuz Market Steady
Brent crude (June futs) currently up just more than $14/bbl on the week. Just another normal week in the Hormuz market. https://t.co/j33nO5RKff
Higher Foreign Demand Fuels Surge in US Oil Exports
"We barely use the Strait … and we have plenty of energy. Just look at the new global congo line headed to Texas, a beautiful picture" 🫠 the "congo line" cometh bc others are willing to pay more for American barrels,...
Analyzing Hormuz Oil Gap and Twitter Fury
I had an absolute blast joining @JacobShap & @Geo_papic on the Geopolitical Cousins pod to talk about the Hormuz oil supply hole. Come for the barrel math, stay for the "which Twitter replies drive me to douse myself with gasoline and...
2026 Oil Bull Market: A Long Shot From the Start
It’s really hard to overstate just how much of a long shot an oil bull market in 2026 was heading into the year. And, yet
White House May Extend Jones Act Waiver 90 Days
90 days? As in 3 more months? Surely they can't expect the Hormuz crisis to last until July... right?
Low Crude Prices Persist Amid Historic Supply Shock
🚨 NEW POST 🚨 𝗦𝗮𝗻𝗴𝘂𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝘁 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗮𝗴𝗲 Making sense of relatively low crude prices through nearly two months of the largest oil supply shock in history https://t.co/1E2OX8hn8t
Presidents' Oil Price Moves During Hormuz Crisis
A brief history of presidential oil price jawbones through the Hormuz crisis. Feel free to add your favourites below. https://t.co/iF0JvVgn0v
US Petroleum Stocks Dip Modestly as Gasoline Falls, Crude Rises
US commercial petroleum inventories declined by only 1.8 MMbbl last week, driven by ongoing declines in gasoline (-4.6) and gasoline (-3.4) but offset by a 1.9 MMbbl build in crude together with inflows of NGLs. https://t.co/A15Ypw5oq9
Discussing Oil's Future and Hormuz Tensions with BBG
Joining the @BBGIntelligence energy team this morning for a chat about oil and the Hormuz of it all https://t.co/dKW2nLoYqd
Energy Crisis Will Scar Oil Analyst Charts Forever
It’s important to remember the lasting damage this crisis is going to do to oil market analyst charts. https://t.co/P1anQ3KIgM
Prefer Predictable Daytime Data over Volatile Weekend Announcements
I personally prefer regular monthly market data updates during regular business hours over sporadic and capricious evening/weekend announcements that can move the price of the world's largest commodity market by 10% or more. So, if we could get back to that...
Brent Crude Surges Past $100 Mark Again
*VANCE CALLED OFF TRIP TO PAKISTAN: AP And just like that Brent breaks back above the magic $100 treshold https://t.co/6zbrIXzw1c
Petroleum Demand Ends when Vance Unveils Teleportation
The real petroleum demand destruction is gonna hit when JD Vance shares his teleportation device with the world https://t.co/8hDb2CaOzp
Iran's Hormuz Threat Lacks Leverage without Clear Economic Damage
If Iran wants its future threats to re-close the Strait of Hormuz to be seen as serious leverage vs a future US administration, it's going to be tricky for Tehran to reopen the Strait before we see more acute—and truly...
WTI May Futures Expire; Prompt Spread Squeezed
WTI May futures contract expiring today. Prompt time spread getting squeezed this morning into expiry. https://t.co/ngZp1l2e18
Trump’s Leverage Hinges on Optimistic Oil Market Assumptions
Current market pricing makes Trump feel like he's got breathing room to push for a better deal with Iran on his terms. But, of course, current market pricing assumes a speedy resolution of the war and reopening of Hormuz. https://t.co/se1cGNIDcn
Early Demand‑destruction Estimates Underestimate Global Barrel Shifts
I still personally struggle with these early demand destruction estimates. In many cases, a demanded barrel couldn’t be had at any price given acute initial shortages—presumably those who would still consume at higher prices will bid for other seaborne barrels, spreading...
Extended Ceasefire Leaves 182M Barrels Off Market
Important to remember that, with 13 MMbpd in oil production still shut-in across the Gulf, a two week ceasefire extension with no change to the status of Hormuz means another 182 million barrels lost to the market. *Poof* Sooner or later that's...
Did the JCPOA Transfer Hormuz Control to Iran?
Hey, folks, remind me—did the JCPOA cede any go-forward control of the Strait of Hormuz to Tehran? https://t.co/ioeUNlmi56
Iraq’s SOMO Secures Modest Oil Trucking Contracts
Iraq trucking oil to market. "SOMO awarded contracts to supply about 650,000 metric tons of fuel oil per month from April to June to be trucked overland via Syria." Still modest flows, though—that's only ~150-160 kbpd vs ~3,600 kbpd of pre-war Gulf...
Trump May Extend Hormuz Ceasefire Despite Tehran Advantage
Possible Trump realizes that a drawn out ceasefire in which Hormuz remains closed only serves to bolster Tehran's leverage in peace deal negotiations. Or, more likely, this means nothing and he'll absolutely extend it if/when the ceasefire ends before a more...
Dated Brent Ticker Reveals Strong Market Vibes
The trouble with listing the BBG Dated Brent ticker is that people will chart it and see that it, too, is trading on some serious vibes https://t.co/ofq7O5OWSr
US Navy Halts Iranian Cargo Ship, Blows Engine Room
US Navy intercepted an Iranian-flagged cargo ship, "stopped them right in their tracks by blowing a hole in the engineroom," says Trump. https://t.co/UOeikdlLzg
Iran Skips Talks, Cites US Demands and Blockade
Reuters, quoting Iran’s national news agency: “Iran stated that its absence from the second round of talks stems from what it called Washington's excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade, which it...
Finally Met Giovanni: Best Oil News Source Live
Finally meeting @staunovo in the flesh for the first time after countless years on here parsing the latest oil market news or data releases. Literally no better oil (and broader commodities) news feed than Giovanni on this platform. https://t.co/EtsLp3Q6nP
Iran Retains Enough Drones, Missiles to Threaten Hormuz Shipping
NYT: “Iran still has about 40 percent of its arsenal of attack drones and upward of 60 percent of its missile launchers — more than enough to hold shipping in the Strait of Hormuz hostage in the future.” https://t.co/o1CminSZqF
Record Number of Strait of Hormuz Ship Attacks
Most attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz since the early days of the war.
Iran Attacks Tanker, Re‑closes Strait of Hormuz
Busy and chaotic morning in the Strait of Hormuz > handful of ships make it across the Strait this morning > then at least one Indian tanker reports it was attacked by Iran, forced to turn back > Iran declares the Strait is...
Crude Prices Shift; Everything Else Stays Unchanged
Nothing fundamentally changed today… … except the price of crude, which is a pretty important thing.
Oil Prices Plunge as Iran Claims Hormuz Open
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices cratered and term structure flattened on Friday following Iran’s declaration that Hormuz is “open” despite the fact that little traffic has actually managed to cross the Strait today. Summary below, link in...
Hormuz Optimism Pushes Dated Brent Below $100
Hormuz optimism not just a "paper" market phenomenon. Backwardation coming off across the full Brent curve, and Dated Brent just fell back below $100/bbl for the first time since March 11th. https://t.co/KHm34R8Ort
Analyzing US Refineries and Venezuela's Post‑Maduro Oil Rebound
There's a timeline in which the Iran War never happened, the Strait of Hormuz was never closed, and I spent the past two months doing really interesting niche data work on US refineries, light-heavy crude balances, and tracking the post-Maduro...
Ship Industry Cautiously Awaits Iran's Vague Policy Shift
BBG: "Bloomberg spoke to over a dozen ship owners, agents, brokers and traders, most of whom asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. The majority said Iran’s statement lacked detail, and that they would wait and see how it...
Unclear US Blockade Complicates Iran's Hormuz Ceasefire Limits
So, are we just back to Iran's 10-15 Hormuz ceasefire Hormuz crossing limit of last week, now with the added US blockade? Or something more? These tweet-length statements are killing me with the lack of detail.
Unwanted Anonymous Email Sparks Creepy Concern
Few folks have reached out after having received this email, which is a new one for me. It's most certainly not me—it's weird and creepy and I'd really like it to stop. https://t.co/5ora12ynHG
Gulf Oil Loss Hits Half‑billion Barrels, 900M‑barrel Cost
As of today, just more than a half billion barrels of oil that were supposed to be produced in the Gulf this year have not been thanks to the closure of Hormuz and forced shut-ins. Using the optimistic assumption that Hormuz...
Deadweight Tonnage Reveals Hidden Ship Traffic Through Hormuz
Great chart showing the breakdown of visible vs dark[er] ship transits through Hormuz Even better that its in deadweight tonnage rather than a simple ship count.
Brent Futures Rebound After $10 Drop, Still $20 Below May
Brent crude [June] futures prices—and prompt timespreads—are perking back up again this morning after sliding ~$10/bbl through the beginning of the week. Still currently down $20/bbl from where the Brent May contract settled. https://t.co/9Iv78anu65
Open Hormuz Now to Stabilize Global Oil Markets
I'm so, so ready for this war to be over, for shipping traffic through the Strait to resume, and to spend the next month or two tracking the nitty gritty of how the short-term shock rippled through the global oil...
PM Boasts 628 Kbbl Diesel—Just One Day’s Supply
Everything is fine. That's why the Prime Minister of Australia just made a national address proudly announcing that the Australian government just secured 628 kbbl of diesel—just more than one day of Australian diesel demand.
Price Caps Risk Shortages; Pay‑more Ensures Fuel Access
Forget the oil & gas profits debate, I’d like to be reliably able to fill up my family vehicle and price caps at the pump are a slam dunk recipe for shortages Fuel is a global commodity, and those willing to...
Finally Met Bob McNally Amid Intense Crude Volatility
After more than a dozen years of online oil chats, finally meeting the one and only @Bob_McNally in person in this moment of acute Crude Volatility. https://t.co/4IzH76RqGt
Delayed US Blockade: Strategic Masterstroke or Missed Opportunity?
Lotta people seem to think the US blockade is a strategic masterstroke sure to end the war. Which begs the question: why wait 6 weeks to impose one?