AI Spending Pulls $2T Industrial Equity Into Tech Cycle
"Fifteen non-tech S&P 500 companies, collectively worth roughly $2.0 trillion in market cap, now move with semis at a daily-return correlation of 0.50 or higher. ... The implication is straightforward. If the AI cycle ever cools off, the wealth-effect drag on consumption is not confined to the Mag 7. A ~$2T slice of the industrial economy's equity value is moving as a derivative of AI capex." @RenMacLLC
World Cup 2026 to Add 185K Jobs, $17B GDP
"185,000: expected increase in US jobs due to World Cup 2026, and the forecasted boost to US GDP is $17bn" - BofA
Beyond the Numbers: Hidden Factors in S
There are too many discussions about S&P 500 Q1 earnings that ignore what's addressed below the dotted line. Great stuff from @FactSet's John Butters https://t.co/gIIrHBC6nm
High‑income Households See 6% After‑tax Wage Growth
"Higher-income households’ after-tax wage growth rose to 6.0% year-over-year (YoY) in April" - BofA https://t.co/ibx1c89OkY
Adjusted Q1 S&P 500 Earnings Growth Near 16%
This is great stuff from Goldman's Ben Snider. If you adjust for Amazon and Alphabet's investment gains, Q1 S&P 500 earnings growth is closer to 16%. https://t.co/1TY62XR8gF
Still Remembering Business Insider's Exceptional CMS After a Decade
I left Business Insider 10 years ago, and I still think about how good that CMS was
Travel Demand Stays Resilient Despite Global Crises
Booking Holdings (via RBC): "We have navigated similar moments many times before, including the global shutdown of travel during the Covid period and, more recently, Russia-Ukraine war, which began in 2022, and Israel-Hamas conflict, which began in 2023. Each time,...
Amazon Now Second‑largest Grocery Retailer in the U.S.
"We’re now the second largest grocer in the U.S." - Amazon CEO Andy Jassy (via @TheTranscript_ )
Corporate America Sets Record $665 B Buyback Start
"Corporate America announced plans to buy back $665 billion worth of shares in S&P 500 Index companies in the four months through April, the most ever to start a year, according to data from Birinyi Associates." https://t.co/NQec3D9V29
Ship Insurance for Hormuz Strait Hinges on Price
Becky Quick: "The question is, how and when can you offer insurance to ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz?" Ajit Jain: "The short answer is it depends on the price." https://t.co/0m8CO1FXH8
Long‑term Berkshire Shares Deliver Compounding Returns
First question comes from "Warren from Omaha": “I've got nothing but time and Cherry Coke, and I want to know just so I have something to tell my fellow shareholders: Why should they hold their Berkshire shares for the long...
Buffett Praises Apple's Succession Planning as Management Miracle
"It's one of the miracles of American business management." - Buffett on Apple's success in succession planning https://t.co/8e79Ec0ppE
Quarterly Gains Mislead Investors; EPS Figures Deceptive
"The amount of investment gains (losses) in any given quarter is usually meaningless and delivers figures for net earnings per share that can be extremely misleading to investors who have little or no knowledge of accounting rules." - Berkshire
Analysts Keep EPS Estimates Steady Amid Oil Price Worries
"Given concerns in the market about higher oil prices, have analysts lowered EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the second quarter? The answer is no." @FactSet https://t.co/Aqtc1XHQdn https://t.co/D5IRx5DPU0
Manufacturing Surge Reflects Stockpiling, Not Lasting Growth
"The surge in manufacturing activity in April is not the cause for cheer that at first glance it suggests. A key driving force behind the upturn is the need for companies to get ahead of further feared price rises and...
Card Spending Rises 7% as K‑Shape Widens at Top
💳BofA: “Total card spending per HH was up 7.2% y/y in the week ending Apr 25, according to BAC aggregated credit & debit card data. Ex gas spending was up 6.4% y/y, in part due to favorable base effects from...
Amazon Q1 Profit Bolstered by $16.8B Anthropic Gain
💰Epic footnote to AMAZON Q1 net income: "First quarter 2026 net income includes pre-tax gains of $16.8 billion included in non-operating income from our investments in Anthropic." https://t.co/qZpRKqQ5Ks
Chipotle's Labor Costs Climb to 26.1% of Revenue
Chipotle: "Labor costs in the first quarter of 2026 were 26.1% of total revenue, an increase from 25.0% in the first quarter of 2025. The increase was primarily driven by wage inflation, lower average restaurant sales volumes, and higher benefits...
Higher Energy Costs Slightly Boost US Import Prices
"Our analysis shows that a 10% increase in local energy prices in a given country tends to raise US non-energy import prices from that country by about 0.5%." - GS
Goldman Sachs: Non‑US Economies Face Greater Middle East Trade Risk
"Other Economies Are Much More Exposed to the Disruption of Trade with the Middle East Than the US" - GS https://t.co/ITX9QcNTWV
Half of US Metros See February Home Price Drops
🏘️📉"More than half of major U.S. metropolitan markets posted year-over-year price declines in February, signaling that the housing slowdown has broadened well beyond its Sun Belt origins" - S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price index https://t.co/n3HIGUVg7v
Starbucks Margins Rise Thanks to Growth and Cost Discipline
Starbucks margins are up "We have more work to do, but we're pleased to see the combination of our comp growth and cost discipline starting to show up in margins" - CFO https://t.co/9xXd09aYXO
Public Listings Turn Private Tech Into Quarterly Beat‑or‑Miss Show
It's gonna be fun when all these mega private tech companies go public, and every quarter we're debating whether they beat or miss 3-month estimates
Service‑spending Optimism Paired with Declining Purchase Intent
"Consumers planning more spending on services over the next six months also shifted from 'yes' and 'maybe' to 'no' in April." - @Conferenceboard https://t.co/ciqEQIcMU4
US Activity Indicator Shows Faster 2026 Growth
"Our US Current Activity Indicator Points to a Faster Pace of Growth Relative to Other DMs So Far in 2026" - Goldman https://t.co/5sAsL9k5aE
Even Skeptics Praise Well-Executed Scrollytelling
I usually find the scrollytelling article format annoying and forced, but this is extremely well done.
Historical Charts Ignore Vastly Different Economic Contexts
This is a great chart everyone is sharing. But keep in mind the farther you go back in history, the more every other imaginable variable changes. Economic and market conditions were very different in the late 1700s and early 1800s
Supply Chain Margin Rises 0.6% on Procurement Gains
"Supply chain gross margin increased 0.6 percentage points in the first quarter of 2026 as compared to the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to procurement productivity, partially offset by an increase in the cost of the Company’s food basket."...
Cooking Class Delivered Massive Savings on Meals
One of the highest ROI classes I’ve ever taken was cooking fundamentals at the Learning Annex when I was 22. I can’t begin to quantify how much I’ve saved on meals
Investing Made Fun: A Must-Read for All Levels
Been reading my early copy of @awealthofcs’s new book. Ben’s got a gift for taking important but often dry investing lessons and making them accessible and entertaining. Great for novice investors looking to avoid mistakes as well as experienced investors...
Layoff Reports Miss Critical Net Hiring Data
Layoffs + closing open roles is serious. News stories about layoffs often make no mention about openings, hiring, net headcount, which is important if you’re trying to connect the anecdote to a bigger macro story
Execs Tweak Numbers, Not Thermostats: Double‑standard Hypocrisy
So execs at publicly traded companies can inflate revenue, massage expenses, stretch depreciation schedules, hide bad debts, adjust for some made-up one-time items to beat quarterly estimates on a non-GAAP basis, but you're not allowed to turn up the thermostat...
Remembering Deepwater Horizon: 16 Years of Environmental Disaster
Deepwater Horizon oil spill started 16 years ago this week. Shit was crazy. Went on for months
JPM Predicts Corporate Capex Surge After Anthropic, Mythos News
"Corporate capex is likely to increase further, particularly in the wake of the Anthropic / Mythos headlines." - JPM
US Valuations Close Gap as Earnings Expectations Rise
"US equity valuations have narrowed their gap with non-US markets as earnings expectations have risen further" - GS https://t.co/hjq1MKlS8K
Free Resorts World Shuttle Could Cut JFK Travel Costs
Does Resorts World run free shuttles? If I can parlay a free shuttle to the casino into an Uber to JFK, that could be some serious cost savings for my travel budget
New Fed Chairs Not Always Tested by Immediate Crises
“There's always been a perception that new Fed Chairs are swiftly tested by significant events shortly after taking office; but the historical evidence paints a mixed picture on that.” - DB’s Reid https://t.co/pwAXXf6spF
2026 May Mirror 2023 Market Gains, Says Morgan Stanley
"...We respect the “wisdom of the crowd” and appreciate that last year, markets ultimately rose more than 16% on 12% earnings growth. In fact, with the US economy no longer as sensitive to oil prices, consumer sentiment and the level...
Rebranding TKerLLC: Investing Newsletter for the Reluctant
I think this is a sign I should rebrand @TKerLLC as the investing newsletter for people who don’t like investing 📈📈 https://t.co/2VkhAvguUw
92% of S&P 500 Firms Beat Forecasts, Median +5%
“Of the 49 companies that have reported so far (10% of the S&P 500): Overall, 92% are beating estimates, and those that “beat” are beating by a median of 5%.” - @fundstrat
Glove Additives Mimic Microplastics, Complicating Detection
“…special substances added to disposable gloves to make them separate from molds more easily, called stearates, are chemically very similar to microplastics, making them almost impossible to distinguish in the lab.”
Phishing Tactics Shift From Freebies to Political Pitches
Evolution of phishing scams: -“Click here to redeem a free iPhone” -“This is USPS. We’re holding your package” -“Vote for me to co-host a podcast”
Builders Struggle Pricing Homes Amid Rising Energy Costs
"Energy costs make up approximately 4% of residential construction material input and service costs. With near-term economic risks elevated, 70% of builders reported challenges pricing homes given uncertainty about material costs."
NYC Traders Set Global Coffee Prices From Small Room
☕️“The people who gather in this small room on the eighth floor of the New York Stock Exchange look like a group of middle-aged caffeine addicts. ... Their ratings help set U.S. futures-market prices for arabica, and in turn, the global...
Private Sector Adds 39,250 Jobs Weekly, Fourth Improvement
"For the four weeks ending March 28, 2026, U.S. private employers added an average of 39,250 jobs a week. It was the fourth straight week of improvement in hiring." - ADP https://t.co/LwfUv8Spdc
Small Firms Lack Staff for Group Health Coverage
"Health insurance is another major issue facing my business. Our problem is not enough employees to get a group policy." via @NFIB https://t.co/EtvPFgPtDa
World Cup Ticketing Removes NJ Transit Concessions for All
"While NJ Transit ordinarily offers concessionary prices for seniors, children and disabled passengers, the World Cup pricing will be one blanket price for all categories."
March Card Spending Rises 4.3% Amid Strong Discretionary Demand
💳BofA: "Mar total BAC card spending per HH was up 4.3% y/y. We forecast a solid 1.8% & 0.6% for ex-auto & control group retail sales. Despite higher gas prices, Mar spending was broad-based with total ex gas spending remaining...
U.S. Economy Remains Resilient Amid Growing Global Risks
JPM's Dimon: "The U.S. economy remained resilient in the quarter, with consumers still earning and spending and businesses still healthy. Several tailwinds are supporting this resiliency, including increased fiscal stimulus, the benefits of deregulation, AI-driven capital investment and the Fed's...
Fund Managers Forecast Oil at $84 by 2026
"FMS investors expect oil to trade at $84/bbl by the end of 2026" - BofA April Global Fund Manager Survey https://t.co/Q8YqzLL8TR