US Industrial Demand Soars, Restaurants Spot Youth Spending Surge
"We've read the tea leaves for US industrial demand: they are a big green arrow pointing up. ... Our recent distributor summit showed accelerating demand and normal list price increases..." - BofA multi-industrials analyst "While weather, calendar shifts, and volatile comparisons will impact 1Q SSSG (same store sales growth), underlying demand appears to be stable. Weaker spending by lower-and middle-income households remains a headwind, but brands are seeing spending "green shoots" among younger consumers who had previous retrenched..." - BofA restaurants analyst
BofA's 16th‑Floor Note: Top Earnings Season Preview
BofA's "Heard on the 16th floor" note is really good. The ultimate earnings season preview
FOMC Chair Not Automatic With New Fed Governor
"There's a distinction between the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, which is a presidential appointment with Senate confirmation, and there's a distinct job, which is the chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee. Now, historically, those have...
Key Grocery Items See 2‑4% Price Drops
🍰Fresh cakes and cupcakes down 2.6% 🥓Bacon and related products down 2.7% 🌭Frankfurters down 3.6% 🍳Eggs down 3.4%
Delta's Refinery Ownership Feels Oddly Out‑of‑place
It's pretty incredible that Delta owns a refinery. It's like if you go to someone's house and they have a Diet Coke fountain in the kitchen.
Airline Holds Forecast Amid Fuel Price Uncertainty
“Bastian said the airline isn’t walking back its full-year forecast but isn’t updating it either because of uncertainty of fuel prices.”
Inside the Lucrative World of Journalism Award Consultants
There’s a great story to be written about the business of journalism awards and “awards consultants”
US Luxury Spending Jumps 12% YoY Through March
"US luxury spending was up 12% year-over-year (YoY) through March 21" - BofA card spending data https://t.co/Al6IqAUC7l
Wall Street Finally Tackles Wet‑bulb Temperature Risks
First time I've seen discussion of wet bulb temperatures in a Wall St research note https://t.co/2RW5WokWID
Penn Station Sections Close for World Cup Ticket‑holders Only
"Parts of New York Penn Station — the busiest transportation hub in North America — will be closed to everyone but World Cup ticket-holders for four hours before the start of eight World Cup matches held in New Jersey this...
Nearly 400 DC Trips Show Deep Regulatory Engagement
"Importantly, our travels have included 396 trips to Washington, D.C., over the last decade, visiting regulators, administration officials and members of Congress approximately 300 times — providing insights, research, data and, where necessary, a countervailing view, testifying and receiving input,...
U.S. Military Repurposes Iranian Drone Tech, Not Silicon Valley
“…doesn’t come from one of America’s more than 400 venture-backed drone startups. And it isn’t the product of Silicon Valley ingenuity. Instead, the drone having its moment in the Middle East conflict was designed by the U.S. military itself, using...
US Services PMI Shows Declining Activity, Slowing Hiring
"Business activity declines amid higher inflation and war in the Middle East ... Employment down amid weakest rise in new work for nearly two years" - S&P US Services PMI https://t.co/4ESKcLv1IC
Fundamentals Strong, S&P 2026 Target 7100 Signals 9% Gain
"Although sentiment has soured, fundamentals have remained resilient. S&P 500 2026 earnings estimates rose 2% in March, pushing consensus growth expectations up to 17% YoY. At the same time, the S&P 500's forward PE sits ~15% below its recent peak...
Nike CFO Emphasizes Controlling What We Can Amid Volatility
“We also recognize that the environment around us has become increasingly dynamic, and we could experience unplanned volatility due to the disruption in the Middle East, rising oil prices and other factors that could impact either input costs or consumer...
February Retail Gains 0.6%, Led by Department Stores
Retail sales +0.6% in February +3.0% dept stores +2.3% health, personal care +2.0% clothes +1.3% sporting, hobby, music, books +1.2% cars, parts +0.9% gas stations +0.7% online +0.5% electronics +0.4% restaurants, bars +0.4% building mats, garden -1.0% grocery -1.0% furniture
Furniture Leads Future Big‑Ticket Purchases Across Categories
"Used cars, furniture, TVs, and smartphones remained the most popular items within their respective categories for future purchases. Among all expensive items, furniture persists as the top expected purchase." https://t.co/eUexbV2ivH
Iran Oil Shock Spikes US Inflation Expectations to 2025 Highs
"Unsurprisingly given the Iran war oil shock, consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations surged in March to levels last seen in August 2025, when US consumers awaited more tariff announcements from the US federal government." - The Conference Board...
Deep Mistrust and Divergent Interests Stall US‑Iran Diplomacy
“Strategic interests remain deeply misaligned, negotiating positions between Washington and Tehran are widely divergent, and a profound lack of trust on the Iranian side continues to weigh heavily against the credibility of any diplomatic breakthrough.” - SocGen
$0.10 Gas Price Hike Adds
“Every $0.10 rise in the price per gallon means over $12bn of additional spending on gasoline versus 2025” - JPM
Iran Conflict Dims Short‑Term Expectations, Survey Shows
"Expectations Worsen After Start of Military Conflict in Iran, Particularly Over Short Run" - UMichigan sentiment survey https://t.co/w6h4uxLJ0V
User Lashes Out at Tech Company's Price Hike
Wtf is this shit? Why can't you act like a normal tech company and just jack up the price of this subscription tier? https://t.co/EGeq8GZps8
Iran Holds Veto, Limiting Trump's Strait Access
🎯”…many things are different now. One obvious thing is that Trump can’t open the Strait unilaterally. Iran gets a veto. So to even think about Trump chickening out is unsatisfying, because he can’t just (I’m pretty sure) go back to...
Break‑even WTI Price Needed to Cover Well Costs
What WTI oil price does your firm need to cover operating expenses for existing wells? @DallasFed via @macrolutzie https://t.co/5sVYLcuBRm
Deutsche Bank's Index Quantifies Presidential Pressure Using Markets
"Maximilian Uleer and his team at Deutsche Bank developed a simple and useful index of the pressure on the president, an equal-weight measure composed of four-week changes in the S&P 500, the 10-year Treasury, short-term inflation expectations and the presidential...
Hardship Withdrawals Hit Record 6% of Vanguard 401(k)s
“Last year, a record 6% of workers in 401(k) plans administered by Vanguard Group took a hardship withdrawal. That is up from 4.8% in 2024 and a prepandemic average of about 2%, according to Vanguard.”
Earnings Still Drive Markets; Pullback Seen as Healthy Pause
"Periods like this are not uncommon and, in many ways, resemble prior resets within this cycle. Ultimately, earnings drive markets. Until we see a meaningful deterioration in the earnings backdrop, we remain constructive and view this pullback as a healthy...
Deutsche Bank Sees Market Bottom in 3 Weeks
"The historical playbook is for a sharp selloff of about -6% to -8% but a bottom on average in 3 weeks, and a full recovery in another 3, usually long before the underlying escalation is resolved. The current selloff is...
AI Boosts Productivity for 96% of Transport Firms
🚛"... 96% of transportation companies reported productivity improvements from AI over the past 12 months, typically in the 1–20% range. For an industry characterised by fragmented systems, labour intensity and thin margins, AI is becoming a central lever for operational...
Small Rise in Private Credit Defaults Cuts GDP 0.1%
"We estimate that a modest increase in private credit default rates to 3-4% (the lower end of the range for leveraged loans in prior credit cycles) would result in a small drag on GDP of about 0.1%." - Goldman
Unclear US War Goals Fuel Market Volatility
"US objectives remain unclear, making it impossible to measure progress (and thus the likely length of the war). Statements from top US administration officials give different and at times contradictory assessments of the war; in the absence of measurable objectives,...
Oil Shock Trims Consumption Outlook, Dampening Growth
“We revise down our consumption forecasts by 30bp due to the oil shock, which more than offsets the 20bp boost we factored in from fiscal. Real consumption grows 1.7% (4Q/4Q) in 2026. Higher prices and slower labor income growth mean...
Goldman Lifts 2026 Oil Forecasts Amid Hormuz Slowdown
GOLDMAN: “We upgrade our price forecast for two reasons. First, we now assume that Hormuz flows remain at only 5% of normal levels for a longer 6-week period before a gradual 1-month recovery. Second, a recognition of the risks from...
Even in Long TSA Lines, Civility Prevails
Seeing lots of videos circulating about long TSA lines. What strikes me is how civil everyone is.
Low-Float IPOs Typically Lag Market in Early Years
"It’s perhaps no coincidence that low-float IPOs tend to perform poorly in their early years. Since 1980, there have been 11 firms that went public with a sub-5% float and inflation-adjusted annual sales of at least $100 million. All but...
IPO Free Float Shares Rise Post‑lock‑up Period
"...in part because of post-IPO lock up periods, the median IPO’s free float share has typically climbed in the months following its launch." - Goldman https://t.co/bKTk8L4OEK
Discretionary Spending Holds Strong Despite Higher Gas Prices
"This rise in gasoline spending could potentially dampen consumers’ ability to spend on “nice-to-have” or discretionary categories. But the “good news” so far is that discretionary spending growth remains solid – in the week to March 14 it was up...
Rising Risks: Rate Hikes and Aggressive Cuts Both Escalate
"The risk of a hike might be rising but the risks of lots of cuts is rising too." - UBS
Volcker Stays Firm on Inflation Fight Amid Recession
"Despite political pressure and a painful recession, [Volcker] held firm to his commitment to bring inflation down. In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago on May 19, 1982, with unemployment above 9 percent and critics calling for him...
Treasury Grants Temporary Permit to Sell Stranded Iranian Oil
“…the Department of the Treasury is issuing a narrowly tailored, short-term authorization permitting the sale of Iranian oil currently stranded at sea.”
Profitability Remains Sole Unchanged S&P 500 Criterion
"Changes to index criteria are frequently proposed and often adopted. Since 2015, S&P has made over 20 updates to the S&P 500 index methodology, including increasing the minimum seasoning requirement in 2017 and reducing the minimum float requirement in 2019....
PR Firm Sues Polymarket over Trademarked Bar Name
“Public relations firm Global Situation Room on Thursday sent a cease and desist letter to Polymarket over the prediction market's planned bar pop-up in Washington. Polymarket has dubbed the bar "The Situation Room," which the consulting firm's attorney said infringes...
Spring Equinox Triggers 28‑Cent Gas Price Rise
"Tomorrow marks the official start of Spring and prices at the pump continued to climb by 28 cents since last week. With the Spring equinox ushering in warmer weather and more time on the road, gas prices are trending upward...
Iran Conflict Threatens Chip Makers' Middle East Fuel Supply
"Iran war could cause supply chain kinks: Taiwan and Korea, top chip producers, rely on the Middle East for nearly 70% of their crude oil imports, and 20-25% of LNG imports." - BofA on AI capex
Strong Economy, Weak Job Demand: Fed Should Cut Rates
"Our view is that an economy operating at a strong level, such as it is today, but which isn’t producing nearly enough labor demand should be signal enough to have the Fed cut rates a couple more times this year,...
Oil at $100 Erases Tax Credit, Hurts 80%
"If oil stays at $100/bbl for the full year, OBBB tax benefits (+$800 per tax filer) will be fully wiped out, assuming a 0.15% increase in core CPI per +10% in Brent oil. By income group, the bottom 80% will...
Demand Growth Offsets Rising Fuel Costs, Says CEO
"CEO Ed Bastian told CNBC that growth in demand is offsetting the rising cost of fuel."
Summit Delay Minor; IEEPA Tariff Relief Drives Trade Gains
“Trump has asked to postpone the scheduled summit with China’s President Xi. The delay is unlikely to be too economically significant. Trade talks are continuing, and China’s export numbers remain robust. A trade deal would reduce the tariff burden on...
Geopolitics and Inflation Now Top Tail Risks
"...geopolitics & inflation replace AI bubble as biggest tail risks." - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Disturbing Truths About Crude Supply Chain Unveiled
This podcast is totally worth the time. Covered a ton about how the crude supply chain works. Really great having Steve Pavlick in there with the policy angle. It's all pretty disturbing