Warsh Delay Helps Him, Harms Powell Amid Oil Shock
“Interestingly, any delay in Warsh’s confirmation is a gift to Warsh and a curse for Powell as the Fed now faces the challenge of managing yet another supply side shock with a president that views rate cuts as the answer to rising oil prices.” @TimDuy
Indecision at Checkout Signals AI Job Takeover
If you’re in a long line and you still haven’t decided what you’re getting when you get to the register, your job is getting replaced by AI
Iran Attacks Hint at Sixth Shock, but Prices Modest
"This month’s attacks on Iran point to a sixth global energy supply shock, but the rise in crude oil prices to date does not represent a shock of the magnitude seen in earlier episodes. At $100bbl, Brent crude is less...
U Mich Survey Shows Expectations Decline Amid Iran Conflict
"Expectations Worsen After Start of Military Conflict in Iran" - U Mich sentiment survey https://t.co/bJlKLotCQ1
10% Oil Spike Adds 0.
“Our rules of thumb are that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices boosts headline and core PCE inflation by 0.2pp and 0.04pp, respectively, while lowering GDP growth by around 0.1pp. The growth impact from a temporary price increase that...
Conflict Is a Supply Shock, Not Demand‑driven Inflation
“More specifically, this conflict represents a supply shock, not demand driven inflation, which from a monetary policy perspective makes a very significant difference, as a supply shock will reduce demand, consumption, and consequently growth.” - Rieder
Airlines Face Renewed Sharp Pressure This Morning
“Have to keep an eye on the Airlines, under some sharp pressure this AM again…” @macrolutzie
Low Rates Trap Sellers, Stalling Housing Turnover
Symptom of the low mortgage rate golden handcuffs narrative that’s keeping housing market turnover depressed
Gulf Bottlenecks Trap OPEC+ Capacity, Limiting Supply Boost
“Most OPEC+ spare capacity (about 4 mb/d) is trapped behind Gulf export bottlenecks, rendering near‑term policy interventions ineffective. Even Saudi Arabia’s pre‑conflict ramp‑up toward 10.9 mb/d does little to ease global supply unless export routes re‑open.” - SocGen
Asian Markets Plunge: Tracy Jordan Analyzes Live
Asian markets are tanking. Here’s Tracy Jordon on with Larry King with some real-time analysis https://t.co/GLnTrM06jf
S&P 500 Multiplies Tenfold Since 2009 Low
On March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 set a closing low of 676.53. Today, it's trading at 6,765.3
S&P 500 Firms' Average Tenure Keeps
Average tenure of companies in the S&P 500 index keeps declining - Apollo's Slok https://t.co/rPrEl7agfl
CEO Emphasizes Equity Focus; Weschler Handles 6% Portfolio
“At Berkshire, equity investments are fundamental to our capital allocation activities; responsibility ultimately resides with me as CEO. Ted Weschler manages about 6% of our investments, including a portion of the portfolio formerly overseen by Todd Combs…” - Greg Abel
Berkshire's Cash Isn’t a Sign of Investment Retreat
“Many times in Berkshire’s history, some observers have suggested that our substantial cash position signals a retreat from investing. It does not…” - Greg Abel
Pullbacks Signal Buying Chance Before 5% S&P Drop
“Markets are at a tactical–fundamental crossroads. Historically these conflicting signals precede >5% S&P 500 drawdowns. Pullbacks are opportunities to add thematic exposure. A clearer equity “index” upturn should follow once policy catalysts materialise lower mortgage rates via falling UST yields,...
Unpredictable Trades, Not Routine Patterns, Drive Outperformance
“…its limits may be more revealing than its success. The trades the system failed to anticipate — roughly 29% — were, on average, more closely associated with outperformance. In other words, the activity that falls outside routine, detectable investment patterns...
US Stock Market Cap Only 12% of $7.7T
"...$7.7 trillion ain’t what it used to be: Compared with the combined market capitalization of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, he points out that it’s on the low side, at about 12%." @Spencerjakab https://t.co/dd4PRJs203 https://t.co/f2BPA4Qw7V
Walmart's Earnings Slide Mirrors Modern Retail Reality
You've got the same-day delivery guy with the influencer POV phone setup. The Walmart earnings presentation cover slide is a snapshot of the state of retail https://t.co/71SdhBOqeq
38% Expect Warsh Chair to Push Yields Higher, Dollar Lower
"38% of FMS investors believe that, all else equal, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair will likely lead to higher US Treasury yields and a lower US dollar." - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey https://t.co/5m0L3ZjRg1
CIOs Push CEOs to Cut Capex, Strengthen Balance Sheets
"capex too hot right now …CIOs telling CEOs to improve balance sheets (35% from 26%) vs. increase capex (20% from 34%) as FMS investors saying corps 'overinvesting' at new record high" - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey https://t.co/ciu0wy6GZP
High ROE Fuels Rapid Book Growth and Higher Valuations
"We have shown over the past couple of years that Return-on-Equity readings for companies are very high, and very supportive of equity prices as the high ROE promotes rapid growth of corporate book value, and consequently higher market valuations." -...