Non‑profit DeepSeek Hampers China’s AI Race
I’ve long argued that the initial decision to keep DeepSeek as a non-profit lab was a strategic misstep—not only for DeepSeek itself, but for the broader Chinese AI ecosystem. The AI race is, in many ways, an arms race: it demands enormous, sustained capital and compute resources that a non-profit structure is unlikely to secure at the necessary scale.
US Chip Export Controls Fuel Chinese Industry Growth
Sebastian offers a calm and objective assessment of the US chip-export controls on China. While whether the rule is working or not remains a debate in Washington, the consensus among Chinese chipmakers is that US restrictions constitute the single strongest...
Inflation, Not Deflation, Threatens Sovereign Fiscal Stability
Basic Econ 101: Countries don’t spend themselves into bankruptcy in a deflationary environment. They run into trouble when inflation is rising and central banks lose control of the long end of the curve.
Allies Must Rethink Strategy If Security Can't Be Outsourced
This is something that all US allies will have to think about in the year ahead. If security cannot be fully outsourced, then diplomatic posture, economic strategy, and even capital allocation must adjust accordingly.
China Likely Remains Cautious on Iran Mediation, Not Catalyst
Will Beijing throw its weight behind Iran negotiations? That is a key question we tried to answer in our China Macro Watch report released yesterday. While markets and diplomats anticipate a more proactive Chinese role in mediating the Iran conflict,...
Traveling East Coast, Open to China Economy Discussions
Dear friends, I will be in DC, NYC, Boston, and Toronto from Apr 14–22. While China has taken a back seat amid the Middle East focus, that may change in H2 if Beijing's policy pivots accelerate. If you’d be interested in meeting...
China’s Chance to Cement Great‑power Status Through Diplomacy
While Beijing is likely to remain cautious and avoid being drawn directly into the conflict, the situation nonetheless presents a strategic opening for the Chinese leadership to deliver on its long-standing pledge to “inject stability” into the global system. Should...
Cheap Drones Could Neutralize US Naval Dominance
If a few thousand low-cost Iranian drones can effectively deter the US in the Strait of Hormuz, what does this chart below tell you? https://t.co/pC6HUG1X26
China's Restraint Defies Expectations Amid US Middle East Focus
For those China hawks who insist that Beijing is poised to invade Taiwan, a simple question is worth asking: why has it not acted when US military focus is tied down in the Middle East and American munitions stockpiles are...
Iran's Strategic Blunder: Chinese Ships Reroute Before Hormuz
Onshore media just reported that: "Two container ships under China's COSCO Shipping Lines have turned back toward the Persian Gulf and have not yet passed through the Strait of Hormuz." I think this is a strategic mistake by Iran.
Dollar Weakness Stalls Rally, Triggers Gold Collapse
This is perhaps the reason why the US dollar has failed to rally meaningfully amidst today's market carnage. It's likely also the key reason behind the collapse in gold prices.
China Won’t Extend Formal Security Guarantee to Iran
Based on my understanding, Beijing will try its best to mediate the conflict for the sake of its own economic interests, but the probability of it extending a security guarantee to Iran is extremely low. China’s foreign policy remains fundamentally anchored...
Japan Must Face China Alone, Not Expect US Favor
Japanese leaders perhaps need to understand that the US will never treat Japan the way it treats Israel. Japan should figure out how to deal with—and live alongside—a rising China on its own, instead of counting on Washington.
China’s Leverage over Iran Could Shape Xi‑Trump Summit
This is just my wild guess: If the IRGC continues to block the Strait of Hormuz and begins targeting China-linked vessels, Beijing may not rule out the possibility of deploying naval forces to escort commercial ships through the strait. That said, naval...
China Prioritizes Iran's Energy Over Regime Politics
This is perhaps the best analysis I’ve seen so far offering an onshore Chinese perspective on Iran and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. “China’s disillusionment with Iran’s leaders means that Beijing is not inherently opposed to regime change. Because...