China Keeps Aluminum Cap, Prices Hit New High
The timing of our China Macro Watch report on February 25 has proven fortuitous. In that note, we laid out why Beijing is unlikely to lift its 45mn-ton aluminum output cap — a policy that has effectively anchored global supply at a time when producers elsewhere remain constrained by elevated power costs. With the ongoing conflict in Iran forcing several regional smelters to halt operations, available global supply has tightened further just as cyclical growth momentum is picking up. Against this backdrop, it is hardly surprising that aluminum is surging and has become the first major metal to break to a new high. If you are interested in this report, please reach out at: shanghaimacro@gmail.com
Tesla Will Face Multiple Chinese EV Rivals Worldwide
Not surprised at all. And let’s not forget that many other leading Chinese EV players—such as Huawei, Li Auto, and Xiaomi—have yet to meaningfully ramp up their overseas expansion. Tesla isn’t just competing with BYD. In the coming years, it will...
Chinese Banks Pivot From US Treasuries to Diversified Reserves
Last week, we published a report titled “How Is China Rewiring Its Trillion-Dollar Surplus?” in response to media reports that Chinese authorities have urged banks to curb their exposure to the US Treasury market. This regulatory signal is highly investment-relevant,...