Nominal Wage Growth Stabilizes, Yet Supply Shocks Threaten Real Incomes
This data is somewhat backward looking now, but... We had been seeing a soft landing in the reported pace of nominal labor income growth. Stabilizing around a healthy pace. Problem is self-inflicted supply shocks are already raising inflation again. Will weigh on real incomes https://t.co/ykMEp8Fg1W
Supply‑side Pressures Threaten US Productivity and Wages
Check out @PrestonMui's latest: The Supply-side May Spoil Warsh's Productivity Story The US economy is facing multiple pressures: tariffs, AI bottlenecks, war...Now healthcare costs are eating into wages Productivity was poor in Q4. Will be in Q1 too https://t.co/RBInolTCWS https://t.co/OAVJH4tUc4
Tariffs Drive Policy; Deny It, Adopt Hawkish Stance
If you don't think this is driven by tariffs, then you probably should be a lot more hawkish in your monetary policy views (all else equal)
Boost Efficiency, Not Cut ROE, for Affordable Utilities
Smart stuff from @GovernorShapiro on the right way to hold utilities' accountable to affordability objectives when setting return on equity (RoE) in rate-making cases. As opposed to strongarm tactics to cut ROE, push for efficiency: make more room in the...
New Data Favors Rate Cuts over Further Hikes
The main reason are that the facts have changed. Folks may finally wake up to: 1) Headline & Core PCE >1% above target & rising. 2) Rates are just 0.5%-.75% above neutral 3) Labor market data has at least stabilized (maybe picking up) 4)...
Trimmed Mean Inflation Reveals Rising Price Pressures
Latest from @_vikasbp & me: So You Want to Talk About Trimmed Mean Inflation? Warsh has latched onto trimmed mean PCE as his favored gauge If the goal isn't just cherry picking, word to the wise: trimmed mean also signals elevated & rising...
Inelastic Delivery Demand Calls for Higher Infrastructure Taxes
Despite the complaints about cost, there is a surprisingly inelastic demand for delivery of takeout and groceries. The delivery drivers / e-bikers use public infrastructure w/o paying more for it. And make it more disorderly. Isnt this an efficient site for...
Trump’s First Energy Move: Lobbying OPEC, Revealing Market Savvy
First substantive action Trump took on energy after he was inaugurated was to lobby OPEC (Saudi Arabia & UAE) to produce more to bring down prices. While I think that was a misguided action, it showed Trump had a better...
Energy Secretary’s View Highlights Overlooked Global Demand Issue
He'll probably be wrong in this prediction, but I have more sympathy for where the Energy Secretary is coming from (than most of the folks eager to dunk on him). Gets at a substantive issue that otherwise goes missing in...
Retail Sales Rise, but Inflation‑adjusted Sales Fall Fourth Month
Despite yet another "upside surprise" to retail sales, inflation-adjusted retail sales have declined for the fourth straight month. Goods prices are rising faster than the dollar value of goods sales Consumers are spending dollars, but aren't necessarily consuming more output https://t.co/EyAhZA065H
Overusing DPA Pushes Industry Toward State Ownership
I'm not here to knock the expansive use of DPA. There are smart ways to pair it w/ American o&g industry's capabilities But taken to such a maximalistic limit (is industry really incapable of producing enough light sweet?), it's the rational...
Trump Claims U.S. Oil Production Insufficient for Defense Readiness
Something very funny about President Trump officially determining that American industry is incapable of producing enough oil for American defense readiness without the use of the Defense Production Act. https://t.co/g6HmXNjprJ
Inflation Still Above Fed’s 2% Target, No Decline
Are inflation and core inflation coming down? Unfortunately, I don't think we can say so anymore. Not on the measures that define the Fed's 2% inflation target: https://t.co/2NzZtQ2Qjr
NJ Transit’s Service Gaps Cost Meadowlands Tourism Revenue
It's a real failure of NJ Transit, American Dream, Metlife tenants, and the state govt that there isn't regular service to Meadowlands (including American Dream) from Penn Station and Hoboken. So much forgone revenue. Missing a generational tourism windfall...
Fed's Inflation Metrics Remain Elevated, Trending Upward
The Fed's inflation gauges were still elevated before the Hormuz closure...and headed in the wrong direction. Oof https://t.co/nry4KuPH5o