U.S. Steel Mostly Electric, China Still Coal‑driven
I say this not to shame China but to call out the misguided “electrostate” commentary: Roughly 90% of Chinese steel production uses metallurgical coal. 10% via ⚡️ electric arc furnaces. In the US, over 70% of steel production uses electric arc furnaces 🤔
U.S. Sports Leagues Overcrowded, Making Regular Seasons Irrelevant
It’s not like the NBA is the sole culprit but the competitive design of major 🇺🇸 sports leagues is increasingly suboptimal Too many teams, too many irrelevant for a single competitive objective, postseason gimmicks + a lot of perverse draft incentives....
LLM Drafts Are Useful, but Require Careful Human Editing
Amazing how many established leaders and intellectuals think they can fool everyone with pure llm generated writing. Pangram 100% level It can be very helpful to get a draft of a sentence or paragraph from an LLM…but how do you not...
Turning LNG Into Fertilizer Secures Domestic Agriculture Sustainability
"We can take that LNG, turn it into the nitrogen that the farmers need for the long-term sustainability and the protection of our own country" Why is she talking about LNG in the context of domestic fertilizer production and domestic agricultural...
Norway: Oil Giant and EV Pioneer Defy ‘Electrostate’ Label
“Petrostate” has a good meaning even tho it’s overused, but not a fan of the term “electrostate” Norway continues to be a leading producer of oil and gas. It also has a diversified economy and is leading the world in...
Delayed Sanctions Squandered Cooperation, Worsened War Costs
In a war of choice, these dynamics were foreseeable. With enough preparation ahead of time, the admin could have at least mitigated the costs and tradeoffs for other countries (and get more cooperation as a result). Instead, they’ve lifted sanctions during...
Key Metrics to Watch for Tomorrow’s Jobs Day
If you're trying to figure out what metrics actually matter for Jobs Day tomorrow, check out this valuable piece from @PrestonMui and @_vikasbp: How The Fed Is Tracking Jobs Day https://t.co/zWQYamKDaT https://t.co/NeRpIroGPi
Inflation‑Adjusted Retail Sales Still Shrink, Q1 Sluggish
Today's "better-than-expected" retail sales numbers were still a net contraction when adjusted for inflation 🙃 There's been a sneaky pullback in the real consumer spending numbers over the past few months. Q1 off to a sluggish start https://t.co/HaUNobi6Tx
USDA's Power Amplified Amid Emerging Global Food Crisis
The USDA is one of the most powerful institutions affecting domestic and global food supplies. Especially given the global food and commodity crisis that’s emerging… Perhaps not the best time for crass porn puns
U.S. Economy Can Absorb Higher Oil Prices, Avoid Recession
Not saying it’s going to be enjoyable or inherently desirable, but the US economy can handle substantially higher oil prices without falling into recession
Algorithm Predictably Amplifies Anti‑Sam Altman Content
The algo pushing a bunch of anti- Sam Altman content feels a bit too predictable
India's Export Bans Could Sway Global Rice, Sugar Prices
Decent odds we see some export bans for key commodities where India can move global prices (eg rice, sugar)
Import‑dependent Economies Can Cut Oil Demand without Extra Renewables
For economies dependent on energy imports, there are pathways to scalably reduce demand for oil & gas without undermining standards of living or their industrial base. Those pathways don't have much to do w/ building more wind & solar...
Markets See Fed Hikes, Hormuz Shock Fuels Inflation Risk
Mkts expect a Fed hiking bias, instead of cuts. 10yr Treasury yields up even more today (4.38%) With long-term interest rates rising, the Hormuz shock is getting priced as more of an inflation shock than one that triggers recession (caveat: mkts aren't...
Suppressing Price Adjustments Fuels Future Volatility
I'm a big advocate for stabilization policies generally, but.... The more you try to play games to stave off fundamental price adjustments altogether, the nastier they can get as time goes by. Could end up adding more volatility than what you've...
Passthrough Effects Grow over Time, yet Hard to See
Waller’s not wrong about passthrough effects. They vary over time and are likely to be stronger the longer this shock goes on That said, the wise course is to look through them. It just turns out to be really hard in...
Markets Flip: From Rate Cuts to Rate Hikes
2 days ago, markets were still pricing in a (diminishing) bias towards imminent rate cuts. Now we are pricing in a (small) bias towards imminent rate hikes. Folks were not paying enough attention to the rise in the Fed's own inflation...
Fed's Projections Remain Low, Ignoring CPI and P
It is (too) low. Guessing some of the Fed officials were not willing to fold in Feb CPI data into their projections. And certainly not today's PPI data
Core PCE Above Target, Fed Still Plans Rate Cut
Core PCE inflation has been marching upwards (>1% above target). Yet Fed officials are only inching up their forecasts (they're still offsides) No downside changes to u3 or output gap. Yet the Fed is still penciling in a cut for this year....
NJ Bipartisan Push Expands Nuclear Capacity at Salem Site
There's a growing bipartisan consensus in NJ for improving the permitting and regulatory environment for additional nuclear power generation. Great to see. There's room on the main Salem / Hope Creek site for additional large light-water reactors https://t.co/rlPo7Lq5dr https://t.co/bVJbEhfghL
Preparedness Can Mitigate Hormuz Closure Impacts
Employ America Statement on the Coordinated IEA Release. https://t.co/goQS5uJUUS No stockpile release can compare to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but with the right preparation, there are still ways to make it helpful at the margin. https://t.co/K549sAsIrM
Goods Inflation 3% Above 30‑Year Average, Tariffs & AI Bottlenecks Driving Surge
Before adding in geopolitical inflation risk, goods inflation outside food and energy is already running about 3% faster than what prevailed for most of the last 3 decades Much of this is tariffs, but bottlenecks from the AI boom are also...
Europe Should Follow Japan's ABWR Revival, Not SMRs
I guess it's good Europeans are embracing nuclear power again but if SMRs are what they're hanging their hat on, they're going to continue to lag behind. They'd be better off paying attention to what's going on in Japan right...
CHIPS Act Fueled Major Manufacturing Investment Surge
Thank you to @IFP for publishing my piece investigating what role the CHIPS Act played in the manufacturing investment boom of the past few years. It wasn't all CHIPS-driven, but geographic & industrial cross-sections suggest a very substantial linkage: https://t.co/vseboy0GnV
Jobs Report Soft, Yet Income Growth Holds Steady
A lot of hyperbolic takes on the jobs report. It was a soft (bad) report. On both surveys. Both were better in Jan There are reasons for data volatility that need more smoothing now. Labor income growth stable around 4.5% Prime...
Memory Shortage Persists in ISM Manufacturing Survey
Memory shortage reported back to back months in the ISM Manufacturing Survey. I suspect this will be with us for a while.... https://t.co/RUpjKtiOJ6
AI-Driven Bottlenecks Threaten Prices, Smartphone Market to Drop 13%
The ai advances are real, but they imply some very unpleasant bottlenecks for a bunch of industries, and risk stoking prices in a variety of goods. Tariffs arent the only source of short run inflation risk
Modernize Unemployment Insurance to Restore Government Legitimacy
This is probably where the focus of a lot of efforts needs to go, as much as it might seem small-bore / Clintonian Appetite for tax increases very low. Appetite for spending changes (up or down) also not high. Improving govt...