Call for Constitutional Convention to Insert Debt Reset
The USA is engaged in fiscal foolishness. It’s time to call a Constitutional Convention and insert a debt break into the US Constitution
Trump's War Plan Flawed: Ignored
My take on Trump's war plan incompetence in Nick Lichtenberg's @Fortune article: “You better know all this shit’s going to hit the fan if you go to war. They clearly didn’t.” https://t.co/SKHZUkJumx
China Emerges Dominant in EVs, Batteries, Solar
Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, China had ended up a big winner. Now, to diversify away from oil, everyone wants more EV’s, more battery storage, and more solar panels. CHINA DOMINATES IN EV'S, BATTERY STORAGE AND SOLAR PANELS. https://t.co/U6TRMZlyBj
US‑Iran Talks Undermined by Israel’s Independent Aggression
My take on why US negotiations with Iran @ResourceTalks: "We're going to this so-called meeting over the weekend, and no matter what is agreed to, Israel is going to do what it wants anyway. They broke the ceasefire in Gaza and...
Canada Cuts Defense Payments to U.S., Highlighting Trump’s Antagonism
Canada announces it will stop sending 70% of its defense spending to the U.S. The reaction says it all. TRUMP = MASTERCLASS IN HOW TO MAKE ENEMIES. https://t.co/aIc08bMuiQ
Mearsheimer: Trump's Iran “Victory” Claim Lacks Credibility
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on Pres. Trump's claim of 'victory' in Iran: “[Trump] can declare victory — but who believes that? Hardly anybody.” https://t.co/I6EM2aoZeh
Trump Mirrors Iran, Blocks Strait of Hormuz
Trump has been complaining about the Iranians shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. Now, he has taken a page from the Iranian's playbook and is shutting down the Strait. TRUMP = A LOSER = CAN'T MAKE UP HIS MIND. https://t.co/aLGX482gLt
Tech Valuations Halve, AI Bubble Shrinks to Pre‑hype Levels
Tech valuations in the US have declined from 40x to 20x. That's back to levels before the AI hype. AI BUBBLE = NOT NEARLY AS BIG AS IT USED TO BE. https://t.co/2ApBKLgFiI
Oil Prices Likely to Top $115, Stay Long
According to @Polymarket, there is now a 64% chance that US oil prices will exceed $115/barrel this month. I agree. Stay long oil. AMERICANS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP. https://t.co/NCKsBE3xYX
Europe Sees U.S. as Greater Threat than China
According to a new POLITICO poll, more Europeans view the U.S. as a BIGGER THREAT than China. TRUMP = MASTERCLASS IN HOW TO MAKE ENEMIES. https://t.co/l8Dqj6WOoY
Egypt's Inflation Surge Mirrors Excess Money Supply Growth
Egypt’s inflation rate is 15.2%/yr. Egypt's money supply is growing at 16.9%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth rate of 11.1-15.1%/yr, a rate consistent w/ Egypt's 3-5%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/Daeo3HbmBW
Mearsheimer Warns Iran Attack Will Eclipse Iraq War
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on Pres. Trump and Netanyahu's WAR OF CHOICE in Iran: “The decision to attack Iran will be seen as worse than Iraq in 2003.” https://t.co/1NB8fuoO2S
IMF Warns US‑Israeli War on Iran Will Devastate Economy
International Monetary Fund Chief Kristalina Georgieva signals that the US-Israeli war on Iran will result in MASSIVE economic damage. I agree. https://t.co/UHcivMPbGt
Israeli Airstrike Ravages Biblical Qana, Sparks War Crime Claims
Today, an Israeli airstrike caused MASSIVE destruction in the ancient city of Qana, Lebanon. Qana (Cana) is the biblical site where Jesus performed his first miracle: turning water into wine. ISRAEL = A REIGN OF TERROR = INVITES WAR CRIMES COMPLAINTS. https://t.co/p5PmY3FbU6
US Delegation's Amateurism Undermines Rapid Peace Efforts
As I predicted, the peace talks in Islamabad failed. The US delegation of JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner were amateurs. There's no way those amateurs could unwind a war in 24 hours. It took the diplomatic maestro Kissinger 4 years to wind...
Trump's Policies Drive S&P to Historic Lows
Trump is not Making America Great Again. During the first 446 days, the S&P stock index has performed more poorly than the last 5 administrations. TRUMP'S TARIFFS + TRUMP'S WARS = MAKE AMERICA POOR AGAIN. https://t.co/YJKwRKjVhs
Pakistan Receives Fifth $5B Bailout, Repeats Dependency Cycle
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Saudi Arabia and Qatar just announced another $5B bailout package for Pakistan. This is the 5th major bailout since 1998. Pakistan passes the begging bowl again. Why wouldn’t it? It seems to work. FREE IMRAN KHAN. https://t.co/JEXSVNuiU1
Israel's Inflation Hits Target, Money Supply On‑Track
Israel’s inflation is 2.0%/yr. That's w/i Israel’s 1%-3%/yr target. Israel’s broad money supply is growing at 8.08%/yr. That's WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 7.7%-9.7%/yr, a rate consistent w/ Israel’s 1%-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/lQDMrCEK46
Hanke Warns Fed May Fail to Curb 3.3% Inflation
Ron Patel's @StartupFortune reports my view on the current jump in US inflation to 3.0%/yr: "[Hanke warns] that the Federal Reserve would struggle to contain inflation, noting that the three-month annualized CPI back in February was already running at precisely 3.3%." https://t.co/ACIi3dYTNk
AI Cuts Research Time From Weeks to Hours
My take on AI's productivity benefit in Nick Lichtenberg's @Fortune article: "AI saves a hell of a lot of time because if I had a research assistants doing this stuff, I’d have to send them to the library for a week,...
Brent Futures Lag Physical Oil, Gap Set to Close
The futures price for Brent crude is around $109/bbl. But physical oil is trading closer to $145/bbl. THAT'S AN UNSUALLY LARGE PRICE GAP. THE FUTURES MARKET WILL EVENTUALLY BE MUGGED BY REALITY, AND THE GAP WILL BE CLOSED. https://t.co/XVXx6bRg9Z
AI Hype Fails to Boost Productivity, Says Fortune
My take on AI productivity in @FortuneMagazine: “Forget the AI bubble. Productivity was weak, and if AI had delivered, productivity would be way up. The Silicon Valley guys say GDP is going to 5% or 6%, but it’s just not happening.” SO...
Record Low Consumer Sentiment Blamed on Trump’s Tariffs
According to @UMich, the April U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index has plunged to a RECORD LOW. TRUMP'S TARIFFS & WAR MADNESS = BAD NEWS FOR THE US ECONOMY. https://t.co/UwrnBpKdKP
Erdogan Praises Pakistan for Helping Secure Ceasefire
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: With regard to the so-called ‘ceasefire’ in the US-Israeli war on Iran, Erdoğan congratulated those involved in securing it, highlighting “especially our friend and brother Pakistan.” https://t.co/OVeWaUsJo1
Tariffs Promised Jobs, Delivered 150,000 Job Losses
Trump said his tariffs would bring blue-collar jobs BACK TO THE US. Instead, it’s raised costs and DESTROYED MANUFACTURING JOBS. The US LOST 150,000 manufacturing and construction jobs last year. https://t.co/A9EMjCoeP3
India Boosts Russian Oil Imports as Sanctions Loosen
With sanctions on Russia being temporarily lifted, India is importing Russian oil at the highest level since June 2023. One of the few benefits from the US-Israeli war on Iran is that the ill-founded international sanctions regime is coming unglued. GREAT. https://t.co/AvoKEQsvds
US Agrees to Release Iranian Frozen Assets, Dismantling Sanctions
Reuters reports that Iranian sources have indicated that the US has agreed to release Iranian frozen assets. The ill-advised, counter-productive international sanctions regime is being DISMANTLED. IT'S ABOUT TIME. https://t.co/AMcZpe0Vwr
Israeli Airstrike Ravages Jibchit Amid Unchecked Campaign
Israel’s campaign in Lebanon continues UNABATED. Today, an Israeli airstrike caused MASSIVE destruction in the region of Jibchit, Lebanon. https://t.co/TpGNFGXVh3
China’s Power Surge Outpaces US, Boosting Geopolitical Clout
China added 1,514 GW of power capacity in 4 years. The US added just 161 GW. ENERGY CAPACITY = GEOPOLITICAL POWER. https://t.co/mIUmWJOAqL
US-Israeli Conflict Severely Disrupts Gulf Fertil
Fertilizer flows from the Gulf continue to be disrupted. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MAJOR DAMAGE. https://t.co/jiYKxSmV7U
Erdogan Demands Strict Enforcement of US‑Israeli Ceasefire
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: With regard to the so-called ‘ceasefire’ in the US-Israeli war on Iran, Erdoğan said “provocations or sabotage” must not be allowed and that it be “fully implemented on the ground.” https://t.co/DbAA0UweqL
MacGregor Claims Israel Aims to Turn Dissenting Regions Into Gaza
Col. Douglas MacGregor on Israel's plan for the Middle East: “Israel has a plan to turn most of the region that doesn’t submit to its dominance into Gaza.” https://t.co/VBNw0VQftf
China’s Low Inflation Reflects Sub‑golden M2 Growth
China’s inflation rate comes in at 1.0%/yr in March, BELOW its 2%/yr target. China’s money supply (M2) is growing at 9.0%/yr, BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 10.0%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 2%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY =...
Russia Profits as Europe’s Sanctions Hinge on Energy
Europe might sanction Russia, but when push comes to shove, it depends on Russian energy. As I’ve been saying since Day 1 of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Russia is a big winner. https://t.co/boFO4l8cc7
China Halts Jet Fuel Exports, Triggering Global Shortage
Jet fuel supply disruptions continue. China has halted jet fuel exports; Asia is running out of fuel. Major shortages could soon spread to Europe and the US. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MAJOR DAMAGE. https://t.co/1BeaFpUw8i
China’s 41‑Month Deflation Streak Ends, PPI Up 0.5%
China’s deflation streak is FINALLY OVER. Yesterday, after 41 straight months in the red, China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) finally ended -- barely -- at 0.5%/yr. https://t.co/Ysgkv6ogB2
No Written Ceasefire Means No Real Ceasefire
Col. Douglas MacGregor on the so-called ceasefire in Iran: “If it’s not in writing, it means it probably doesn’t exist.” https://t.co/D8xpaCwTbx
Iran Pushes Hormuz Fees in Rial as Currency Gains 9%
Iran’s parliament is trying to ensure that Hormuz transit fees will be paid in RIAL. I currently measure that the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 9% vs. the USD since the beginning of the US-Israeli war on Iran. STAY TUNED. https://t.co/o5Mv9sigwg
Disregarding War Laws Threatens Global Security, Warns Parsi
My friend & Johns Hopkins graduate Trita Parsi on US war crimes: "Pete Hegseth... says he's not going to abide by any laws of war norms around the use of force... If that ends up becoming the standard... it would be...
War's Fallout Harms Global Economy, Boosts Russia
My view with @LenaPetrovaOnX on the outcome of the US-Israeli war on Iran: “The outcome of the war is unambiguously bad for the world economy… except for Russia and China, with Russia being a big winner.” https://t.co/5Rj36XtJ4O
U.S. Holds 877 Overseas Bases, Outpacing Top Five Combined
The US has an ASTOUNDING 877 foreign military bases. The next 5 countries combined are NOWHERE NEAR AS CLOSE. They only have a combined total of ~313. https://t.co/ME9OlSbtKz
CPI Hits 3.3% Confirming Inflation’s Stubborn Rise
The U.S. Consumer Price Index jumped from 2.4%/yr in February to 3.3%/yr in March. That didn't surprise me. The three-month annualized CPI back in February was precisely 3.3%/yr. As I've been saying, the Fed is not going to be able to put...
Russia Gains Strategic Advantage From US‑Israeli Conflict
As I’ve been saying since Day One of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Russia is a big winner. https://t.co/yPgEDa0caP
US Deals Useless if It Can’t Control Israel
My friend & Johns Hopkins graduate Trita Parsi on the validity of any deal with the US: "If the US cannot control Israel, then what is the value of a deal with the US? Israel will restart the war and the...
Iran’s Economy Stable, Mirroring Australia’s Growth Despite Media Claims
Contrary to Western propaganda, the Iranian economy DID NOT COLLAPSE prior to the recent US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Iran’s growth profile is almost identical to Australia’s. Hanke's 95% Rule: 95% of what you read in the financial press is either WRONG or...
OpenAI Halts UK Stargate Project over Costs, Bureaucracy
Due to HIGH ENERGY COSTS and RED TAPE, OpenAI has SUSPENDED its Stargate project in the UK. UK = UNINVESTABLE. https://t.co/9720Aq9gHh
Libya’s Oil Steady, Prices Surge, Dinar Jumps 27%
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Libya's oil production has stabilized at ~1.3 million barrels/day and the price has SOARED. As night follows day, the Libyan dinar APPRECIATED by 27% vs. the USD. https://t.co/5PPdIEUYSV
Pakistan's Money Supply Outpaces Golden Rate, Fueling Inflation
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Pakistan's March inflation is 7.3%/yr. Pak's money supply (M3) is growing at 15%/yr. That’s ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 11.5-13.5%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Pakistan's inflation target of 5-7%/yr. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/IKlK5BLB5t
South Korea's Productivity Surge Outpaces Stagnant Japan
South Korea’s GDP per capita outpaces Japan’s by a CONSIDERABLE MARGIN. Between 2008 and 2025, South Korea's labor productivity has grown by 1.53%/yr, while Japan’s productivity has flatlined at 0.03%/yr. SOUTH KOREA IS LEAVING JAPAN IN THE DUST. https://t.co/b4UNREka7X
Parsi Blames Israel and UAE for Iran Attacks
My friend & Johns Hopkins graduate Trita Parsi on today's attacks on Iran. "The Israelis and Emiratis are doing this because they want to ruin the ceasefire... It's likely that the Emiratis were behind these attacks... they were in favor of...