Thomas Chua (Steady Compounding)
Fundamental investor who posts earnings analyses and explicitly references reading and updating from earnings call transcripts; shares takeaways and sector comps.
Readiness Comes From Action, Not The Other Way
Many wait till they feel like they're "ready" before they take the first step. Action creates "readiness", not the other way around.
Avoid Leverage: Small ROE Gains Threaten Survival
Stretching your balance sheet for a couple % extra returns isn't worth the trading off your long-term survival: "There is no point in improving return on equity by a few percentage points if it compromises long-term survival. The COVID-19 crisis demonstrated...
Booking's Verification Hurdles Protect Against AI Disintermediation
Former senior supply side executive at $BKNG make the case for Booking's moat against AI disintermediation: Regulatory and verification burden: "If you think about self-management or a self-sign-up process with an OTA, it is all digital, so nothing needs to be managed...
Immediate Discounts Cut Distribution Costs, Hotels Love Genius
Why Booking Holdings Genius program reduces costs and why hotels are happy to pay for the discounts: "Loyalty is definitely a way to save distribution costs, so loyalty is crucial. I think Booking created a smart system. Instead of making travelers...
Trade Desk Faces Pricing Pressure From Amazon DSP
Former Trade Desk Manager on challenges within $TTD: 1. It's hard to compete against Amazon DSP "Competing on price is very difficult for them for the reasons I outlined before. It's the sole point of their revenue, so it's very difficult for...
Amazon DSP Wins With Shopper Intent Data
Former Media Director: When Amazon DSP > The Trade Desk "Amazon is very compelling because of their shopper data. I think brands will continue to test on Amazon and see if it performs better because they're trying to get people who...
TAM Masks Profit Reality, Offers No Financial Insight
Pulak Prasad on TAM: It makes astrology-based forecasts look respectable. TAM is pointless because it does not tell us whether any profits will be made, and even if a business can be profitable, TAM is silent on who will make that...
AI Agents Will Multiply SaaS Tool Usage, Not Devalue It
SaaS valuations have been crashing on fears that AI will commoditize software. Jensen thinks the opposite is true. Most enterprise software today is tools. Excel. PowerPoint. Cadence. Synopsys. Today, tool usage is capped by the number of engineers who can use them. Tomorrow, every...
Abel’s Aggressive Cuts Contrast Buffett’s Patience
Difference b/w Buffett and Abel: Abel doesn't shy from confrontation and is more likely to sell a business if it doesn't meet expectations. Also... he has unloaded the stocks managed by Todd Combs. Source: WSJ
Start Early, Hold Long, Let Compounding Grow Wealth
Great investment advice in one page. Start early. Hold long. Let compounding do the work.
Estimating How Many Years of Value Stocks Price In
New Mauboussin paper just dropped. The question it tackles: when you buy a stock, how many years of value creation is the market pricing in, and how would you even measure that? https://www.morganstanley.com/content/dam/im/assets/publication/thought-leadership/consilient-observer/article_theneglectedvaluedriver_ltr.pdf?1776183428400
Conservative Debt Use Prioritizes Balance Sheet Comfort Over Short-Term Gains
"We use debt sparingly. We will reject interesting opportunities rather than over-leverage our balance sheet. This conservatism has penalized our results but it is the only behavior that leaves us comfortable." Warren Buffett
Buffett's Buyback Test: Cash Surplus, Undervalued Stock
Buffett's two conditions for buybacks: 1) The company has more cash than it needs for the business. 2) The stock is trading below intrinsic value, conservatively calculated. Simple test. Most companies fail the second one because management is almost always...
His Position Sizing Defies Traditional Investing Rules
Derek Pilecki has compounded at 20%+ annualized over the past five years. In a recent conversation, he broke down his core position sizing rule... and it challenges one of investing's most repeated principles. Here's what he does differently.🧵
Asset‑light Businesses with Moats Are the Ultimate Sweet Spot
Capital-intensive businesses can keep competitors out. But it's even better when a business is asset-light AND protected from competition. That's the real sweet spot. Low capital needs plus a wide moat.
Paying Premium? Demand Rapid Growth and Strong Metrics
If you're going to pay an expensive valuation, the business better be growing fast with exceptional financial metrics. High valuations with slow growth is the worst combination in investing. You're paying up for nothing.
Time Rewards Good Ideas, Punishes Bad Theses
"Patient" and "long-term" are not strategies. They're just words. If your thesis is wrong, being long-term only multiplies your problems. Time is your friend with good businesses and your enemy with bad ones.
Buybacks Can Destroy Value When Overpriced
Buybacks aren't automatically good for shareholders. A company buying back stock above intrinsic value is just destroying capital with extra steps.
Buy Quality, Not the Deepest Discounts, During Sell‑offs
During sell-offs, people rush into whatever has dropped the most. Down 60%? Must be a deal. But a bad business down 60% is still a bad business. Quality matters more when everything is falling. Buy the companies that will come...
Don't Let Sunk Costs Dictate Your Trades
Sunk cost fallacy has probably destroyed more portfolios than any bear market. "I can't sell now, I'm down too much." The market has no memory of your entry price. It doesn't know. It doesn't care.
Embrace Uncomfortable Stocks for Low‑Valuation Gains
In investing, comfort can come at a high price. Conversely, embracing discomfort can be rewarding, as stocks that make investors uneasy often trade at exceptionally low valuations.
Wealth Grows When You Trade, Read, and Complicate Less
Investing is an odd field where effort often hurts returns. The more you trade, the less you make. The more news you consume, the worse you perform. The more complex your strategy, the more likely it fails. Wealth is built...
Margin Compression Can Signal Strategic Franchise Investment
Not all margin compression is bad news. Sometimes a company is spending to build something that doesn't show up in this quarter's numbers. They could have cut spending and reported prettier margins. But they chose the franchise over the optics.
Markets Always Overshoot Fair Value—Act on the Swing
Markets don't find fair value and stop. They overshoot. Every single time. Up or down, the pendulum always swings past the midpoint. Knowing this won't make you rich. Acting on it might.
Discipline vs Ego: Know When to Let Go
There's a fine line between conviction and denial. Holding on when the thesis is intact? That's discipline. Holding on because admitting you're wrong hurts? That's ego. The facts don't care which one it is. Your portfolio doesn't either.
Fundsmith Trims Big Tech, Adds Consumer and Niche Picks
Terry Smith's 2026 Fundsmith Annual Meeting: Sold: PepsiCo, Brown-Forman Halved: Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet Bought: EssilorLuxottica, Wolters Kluwer, Zoetis, Intuit, Magnum Ice Cream Full transcript: https://steadycompounding.com/transcript/fundsmith-terry-smith-annual-meeting-2026/
Research on ChatGPT, Buy Elsewhere: Instant Checkout Lags
Where you discover ≠ where you buy. People use ChatGPT to research what to buy. Then they leave to actually buy it. Instant checkout converts 3x worse than clicking out to the store.
Blend Short‑Term Paranoia with Long‑Term Optimism
"A mindset that can be paranoid and optimistic at the same time is hard to maintain, because seeing things as black or white takes less effort than accepting nuance. But you need short-term paranoia to keep you alive long enough...
Size Positions by Risk, Quality, Not Just Upside
Position sizing is more art than science. I don't just size based on upside potential. I think about business quality, how bad things could get if I'm wrong, and how likely the thesis is to play out. The upside matters,...
Management Quality Trumps Cheap Valuation in Investing
A cheap stock with a bad management team is not a good investment. Valuation means nothing if the people running the business are misallocating capital, chasing the wrong metrics, or treating the company like their personal piggy bank. I look for leaders...
True Margin of Safety: Quality Business at Fair Price
Margin of safety isn't just about price. A cheap stock with a bad business isn't safe. Real margin of safety comes from buying quality businesses at reasonable prices. Good businesses protect your downside. A fair price protects your returns.
Advertisers Ignore Amazon DSP's Market Share Grab
Expert call with Former VP at Trade Desk on Amazon DSP: " I think Amazon DSP is taking share from every DSP in the marketplace, including The Trade Desk... My belief is advertisers don't care. There are countless examples... they are...
Credit Pushes Guests Toward
Credit almost always leads to people spending more. From Airbnb's Q4 earnings: "Reserve Now, Pay Later saw significant adoption among eligible guests in Q4. It's also led to longer booking lead times and a mix shift towards larger entire homes, especially those...
Alphabet Q4: Search Rebounds 17%, Cloud Drives 48% Revenue
Alphabet Q4 2025: Search reaccelerated to 17%. Cloud hit 48% at 30% margins. Full breakdown live for SCIS members: https://steadycompounding.com/investing/alphabet-q4-2025/