Tim Farrar

Tim Farrar

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Satellite/Telco analyst; NTN, spectrum, SpaceX/OneWeb.

Full‑price Launches Would’ve Added $8B to SpaceX
SocialMay 24, 2026

Full‑price Launches Would’ve Added $8B to SpaceX

Launching rockets would have been much more lucrative for SpaceX than Starlink, if they had paid full price for the launches: it would have been ~$8B of additional revenue for the space division last year (and over $5B of extra...

By Tim Farrar
Starlink Launches Are Capitalized, Revenue Hinges on Subscribers
SocialMay 23, 2026

Starlink Launches Are Capitalized, Revenue Hinges on Subscribers

And just to be clear, launching Starlink satellites won't produce revenues directly, because internal launches are capitalized, those revenues will only accrue if Starlink attracts more subscribers

By Tim Farrar
Starlink's FCC Filings Reveal Realistic Per-Beam Spectral Efficiency
SocialMay 12, 2026

Starlink's FCC Filings Reveal Realistic Per-Beam Spectral Efficiency

Starlink commitments to FCC on D2D spectral efficiency give a realistic view of what to expect when reusing spectrum across multiple beams: initial per beam efficiency is 0.3bps/Hz DL and 0.1bps/Hz UL, final efficiency is 0.6bps/Hz DL and 0.2bps/Hz UL...

By Tim Farrar
EU Set to Launch 2GHz Satellite Spectrum Allocation
SocialMay 12, 2026

EU Set to Launch 2GHz Satellite Spectrum Allocation

Politico reporting that the European Commission could kick off the process to allocate the 2GHz satellite spectrum in the coming days, including likely extension of current licenses and potentially earmarking some frequencies for European companies

By Tim Farrar
AST's $30M Insurance Can't Cover $155M Loss
SocialMay 12, 2026

AST's $30M Insurance Can't Cover $155M Loss

So if the satellite was only insured for $30M, how does AST claim on Apr 19 that "The cost of the satellite is expected to be recovered under the company’s insurance policy" but then disclose in the 10-Q that "The...

By Tim Farrar
Issue Lies in Unauthorized Spectrum, Not FPGA/ASIC
SocialMay 11, 2026

Issue Lies in Unauthorized Spectrum, Not FPGA/ASIC

Yes that's correct. Its not dependent on the FPGA or ASIC, its dependent on using spectrum that they don't have the rights to use... (and only lighting up a tiny number of cells, which is where the FPGA and ASIC...

By Tim Farrar
No Country Has 40 MHz Downlink; Testing Moves Offshore
SocialMay 11, 2026

No Country Has 40 MHz Downlink; Testing Moves Offshore

Of course they don't have anything close to 40MHz of downlink available in any country, which is why this test is being done in international waters...

By Tim Farrar
Production Delays and No Micron Output Fuel Recent Pump
SocialMay 11, 2026

Production Delays and No Micron Output Fuel Recent Pump

Now we see the reason for all the pumping over the last week, with significant delays to production and no more microns completed since March https://t.co/rDzDwsmAjT https://t.co/F4FRak2tZu

By Tim Farrar
Cost Optimism and Capacity Pessimism Widen Satellite Service Gap
SocialMay 11, 2026

Cost Optimism and Capacity Pessimism Widen Satellite Service Gap

This is too optimistic about AST cost per satellite and too pessimistic about Starlink V2 capacity per satellite, which makes the disparity even greater. And we still don't know if there will actually be sufficient demand to pay for D2D...

By Tim Farrar
Questioning AST's Block 1 Tests Amid Faster Satellite Claims
SocialMay 11, 2026

Questioning AST's Block 1 Tests Amid Faster Satellite Claims

Why is AST still doing this testing with Block 1? If "next gen satellites expected to nearly double these speeds" then what are the results from FM1 testing?

By Tim Farrar
Satellite Broadband Outperforms D2D; Shift Investment Focus
SocialMay 5, 2026

Satellite Broadband Outperforms D2D; Shift Investment Focus

This thesis implicitly assumes that D2D is a good business that justifies further investment in mobile. But all the evidence points to satellite broadband being a better business. Why not focus on that instead?

By Tim Farrar
Musk Held 46.5% Economic, 99% Voting Stake in xAI
SocialMay 5, 2026

Musk Held 46.5% Economic, 99% Voting Stake in xAI

Interesting to see the latest SpaceX ownership filing indicating that Musk had a 46.5% economic stake and 99% voting stake in xAI before the merger

By Tim Farrar
SpaceX Loaned Itself Money at High Rates for Musk
SocialApr 30, 2026

SpaceX Loaned Itself Money at High Rates for Musk

The real issue here is that SpaceX itself was borrowing the money to give to Musk, via the Nov 2018 leveraged loan priced at LIBOR+4.25%, far above the rate he was paying SpaceX https://t.co/hRcoplhKVQ

By Tim Farrar
Starlink's Precise Location Tool Could Aid Malicious Actors
SocialApr 29, 2026

Starlink's Precise Location Tool Could Aid Malicious Actors

Duh, why does no one think about the bad actors that might want to use this feature... it's just like the speed limits on airborne use...

By Tim Farrar