AST Delays Prolong Denial, Echoing Gilder’s Misguided Optimism
AST's delays will allow the #cluelesscult to continue living in denial for at least another year. But this is reminiscent of George Gilder in 2000 claiming that Iridium's failure was positive for Globalstar because it removed the competition and CDMA was inherently superior https://t.co/DyJmSPMXy1
AST’s Legacy Handsets Worsen Latency and Timing Issues
Truly the #cluelesscult. Every aspect that is problematic for Starlink is worse for AST when using legacy handsets: longer path lengths due to higher altitude create higher latency, more functions on the ground make this worse, and larger beams create...
SpaceX’s 2025 Launch
How did SpaceX spend $3.6B of capex in its launch business in 2025 (compared to $4.1B of revenues and $3.5B of expenses)? How much of that was on Starship (it is reported that Starlink was a separate $4.2B capex line...
Starlink Mobile Needs Handset NTN Adaptations, Avoid Transparent Architecture
This is an interesting paper which analyzes the Starlink Mobile system in Japan. It concludes NTN adaptations are needed in the handset for uplink & transparent architectures are a bad idea because they lead to "high signaling delays and signaling...
FCC Grants Globalstar Exclusive LEO, Backs Starlink AWS‑4
This new FCC order is super complicated, but basically is telling everyone to stay in their lane: Globalstar gets exclusivity in its Big LEO spectrum, and Starlink gets FCC backing in AWS-4 (2000-20/2180-2200MHz) worldwide, but attempts to access Big LEO...
Airlines Pledge Starlink to Fix Chronic Wi‑Fi Outages
Third flight in the last week (two on United, one on BA) where the airline has apologized in advance for the lack of WiFi and promised that Starlink will soon "transform the quality and speed of connectivity" https://t.co/WcO89ZPqJy
Low Current Usage Means
In other words, hardly anyone uses it right now. But the consequence is that capacity if usage eventually picks up will be much lower than the 3bps/Hz that many have assumed https://t.co/bHpNSHfCA9 https://t.co/nyCcHY1ALR
Musk’s SpaceX Ownership Dips, Voting Power Rises
This story is odd, because Musk's economic stake in SpaceX actually fell from 41.7% to 41.5% during 2025 (his voting stake went up from 79.5% to 80.0% but that's to be expected when others sell supervoting shares) https://t.co/K5sOcpCVK8
Ka‑band Offers Far More Uplink Spectrum than Ku‑band
Do people truly not understand that Ka-band simply has far more uplink spectrum available than Ku-band? https://t.co/L39uzTDVfA
Apple Skips C‑3 Services as Amazon Plans 2028 Constellation
This doesn't specifically say what's happening to the C-3 constellation, but Apple is not getting the more advanced services intended as part of that constellation and Amazon is building its own constellation in 2028. Looks to me like C-3 may...
SpaceX Valued Near $15 B, Not $16 B, with Starlink $11‑12 B.
The legacy Twitter business was supposed to be $2.9B last year and xAI was hoping for $500M. That would mean SpaceX itself is just over $15B (not the $16B many have been stating) and Starlink is in the region of...
No Orbital Starship Flight Before IPO—Do Investors Care?
One important takeaway is no orbital Starship flight before the IPO. But do investors care?
F9 Launch Delays Reveal Flawed Planning
LOL. Now remove all the F9 launches since they've been postponed for at least a year... #cluelesscult
SpaceX Leverages Launch Margin, Not Platform Model
This is just weird, since SpaceX's key advantage is that *it alone* gets to exploit the gap between launch price and launch cost to build its own systems (satellites, ODCs, perhaps even a moon colony). That's not a "platform business"
V2mini Boosts Capacity, Scaling Cuts Starlink Costs
The current V2mini sats have usable capacity for ~2000 customers globally (with a BH provisioning rate of ~2.5Mbps) & the V1 sats had ~1/4 of that capacity. Starlink's business model worked out because costs (of satellites, launch & terminals) fell...
Aaron's Repost Reveals Publicity Chase over Analysis
It is hugely ironic that Aaron would repost this today, at exactly the time when Apple's hand *is* being forced by Globalstar's sale...and shows that his objective is not providing "rigorous" analysis, but instead sucking up to get Musk's endorsement...
FirstNet Pushes AST Beta Launch to Later This Year
FirstNet announces that AST beta service is delayed to "later this year" instead of "the first half" of 2026 as they indicated in December. Hardly a surprise given the lack of satellites... https://t.co/6YGSWKm4sN
Starship Won’t Offer Cheap Access to Third Parties
Sigh...whether or not Starship works, third parties won't have access to it at "cost" https://t.co/bcRTor02Id
Ligado Hearing Threatens Viasat; $100M Escrow, Massive Damages Possible
Ligado bankruptcy hearing goes very badly for Viasat. $100M payment from AST will be put in escrow, judge mentions possibility that "the quantum of damages here could really be large to say the least" https://t.co/k8kSucvvPU
Starlink’s Growth Falls Short of Optimistic Commercial Forecasts
Pumpers desperately want this not to be true because it would destroy their preferred narrative. But of course there's a commercial ceiling for Starlink, the only Q is where. And we are now starting to get enough data on growth...
SpaceX Juggles Starlink Cash vs Amazon Competition
SpaceX has to balance two considerations: relying on Starlink revenue in the near term vs trying to undermine Amazon's desire to compete in the satellite broadband market
Starlink's India Commercial Launch Imminent, Defense Potential Discussed
I was told by several people at the SatShow this week that Starlink's commercial launch in India is imminent (next few weeks). I wonder about defense applications too
SpaceX Paid per Active Users, Not Subscription Count
Silly numbers, especially when you can see that SpaceX gets paid on the number of users (currently 10M per month) not on the number of mobile subs with access to the service (>10x that number)
New Glenn Capacity Cut by ~20% From 61 Satellites
A ~20% reduction in New Glenn capacity compared to the originally expected 61 satellites... https://t.co/H4l2vyx0DP
Starlink Needs Far Fewer Satellites Than Expected
I agree this is the most significant statement, an acknowledgement of the reality that Starlink demand is not unlimited. 20K V3 BB sats is enough for 200M+ users worldwide, 1200 V2 DTC satellites may be sufficient for occasional use by...
Satellite Operators Can't Match Launch Providers' Internal Pricing Advantage
This is the wrong framing. The correct framing is "it's only reasonable to ask whether any satellite operators can compete with launch providers that build their own constellations and charge *prices* to third parties that are much higher than their...
Broadband Users ≠ DTC Users: Different Metrics, ARPU
Why do people deliberately conflate broadband (10M users) with DTC (aiming for 25M monthly users at the end of 2026)? Monthly DTC users (who use DTC on average 1-2 times per month and generate ~$1 ARPU) are not at all...
Starlink 2025 Revenue Forecast Vastly Overstated
This is way too high, but that's unsurprising since the starting point used for Starlink in 2025 ($14B+) is completely out of line with the known revenue for the year (<$12B)
Automatic Satellite Switching Will Worsen Mobile Connectivity Issues
This will only become more of an issue when automatic switching to satellite D2D is included in their mobile plans...
GSMA D2D Analysis Misses Indoor Coverage‑demand Paradox
Interesting piece on D2D from GSMA. Gets the physics and capacity limitations right, but doesn't resolve the inherent contradiction between the lack of indoor coverage and what that means for actual end user demand in rural unserved areas https://t.co/0ncbKgndSC
Satellite Show's Shortlist Overlooks Key Industry Leader Charlie Ergen
This shortlist for Satellite Executive of the Year makes me feel that SatShow no longer has its finger on the pulse of the most significant industry developments... (yes the SES-Intelsat merger is a big deal but shouldn't Charlie Ergen be...
Starlink’s First 100K Terminals Cost $2,500 Each
Starlink is a good example of this, everyone now seems to forget that the first 100K+ terminals cost ~$2500 each to make...
Iridium’s Rapid Downpayment Saved SpaceX’s Payroll
The second time was June 2010 when Iridium had to wire the downpayment immediately after signing the launch contract so SpaceX could make payroll the next day https://t.co/UeIt4PAY4O
Starlink Dominates D2D; Terrestrial Networks Still Superior
Good to see the #cluelesscult finally acknowledging that my Feb 2023 predictions that 1) Starlink would dominate the D2D market and 2) D2D performance will never match terrestrial networks were both totally correct...
NTIA Limits US, Yet Global Handset Impact Hits Equatys
This doesn't seem like good news for Equatys either, even though NTIA action is limited to the US, because the handset design implications won't just be limited to the US...
D2D Signals Can't Penetrate Buildings, Starlink Confirms
Good piece on the physics of D2D, with everyone emphasizing it won't penetrate buildings like terrestrial does (which Starlink admits too, with only AST #cluelesscult members still in denial) https://t.co/TsFCNnsuGp
DISH Pushes for Higher Power Limits in CBRS
And would really like to get higher power limits and increased value for this spectrum...
Starlink’s Net Adds Steady; Production Bottleneck, Not Slowdown
Of course Starlink is definitely not experiencing a slowdown in net adds ahead of the IPO and is instead constrained by temporary terminal production shortfalls...
ASTS Delays Satellite Timeline, Offers No Clarity
What a debacle. They can't even promise to complete the "40 satellites equivalent of microns" until "first half of 2026" compared to "early 2026" previously. With no clarity on when any completed satellites will be ready to ship. Also dropped...
EchoStar 10‑K Reveals Limited Non‑European Satellite Assets
Lots of useful detail in EchoStar 10-K on foreign assets transferred (see pp415-418). Outside Europe there's just SIRION-1 Australian filing plus licenses in Brazil, Chile & Mexico (but Brazil is specific to Lyra, Chile is non-exclusive, Mexico is GEO) https://t.co/mHJqFgkMzd
Starlink's German Pivot: Why Lufthansa and DT Switched Fast
My new blog post on Starlink's German alignment: why have both Lufthansa and DT changed their minds in short order? https://t.co/KFmPPokCry
Starlink Hints at Extended Viasat/EchoStar 2GHz Licenses
Starlink is effectively confirming (or at least treating as a fait accompli) what I've been told previously, that the incumbent Viasat and EchoStar 2GHz licenses will be extended for a period of time beyond 2027
Starshield: Distinct, Classified Constellation Separate From Starlink
How many Starshield satellites are there? How many Starlink satellites are needed to provide continuous service? https://t.co/qIfvwWuPIy
Space Firms May
Recall that two years ago Rivada blamed Oct 7 for delays in securing funding for their contract with Terran Orbital. I'm wondering which space company will be the first to use the current Middle East conflict as an excuse for...
Starlink's Growth Hinges on Terrestrial Competition, Not Physics
The future growth of Starlink revenues is absolutely *not* just a matter of "math and physics". SpaceX can provide ample capacity, they don't even need Starship to do that. It's now a matter of competing with terrestrial providers, which has...
Starlink's $1B Ukraine Deal Sparks Renewed Debate
Seems like we had this debate before re Starlink and Ukraine...so how does it play into the DoW's ~$1B per year contract with Starlink? https://t.co/vRYy6SwnTe
Starlink Monopoly Will Dominate Residential Broadband Future
Enjoyed my panel today during the opening session at #RTIME2026 here in Orlando. My message: Elon Musk doesn't care about your economics. And in 5 years time, your biggest issue will be what to do about Starlink's monopoly in residential...
My Prediction of Ergen's Bid Stunned AT&T Insiders
Fun chat today with someone who was in the AT&T bidding room for Auction 97 (AWS-3) and told me how astonished they were that I'd figured out Ergen's bidding strategy and blogged about it. Apparently AT&T's CEO didn't believe it......