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Tom Shugart

Tom Shugart

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Naval analyst; undersea warfare, China‑Taiwan scenarios, force posture.

US Ignored Red Sea Base Upgrades, Prioritized Pacific Against China
Social•Apr 1, 2026

US Ignored Red Sea Base Upgrades, Prioritized Pacific Against China

“The Biden and Trump administrations didn’t act on recommendations to upgrade a network of Saudi bases near the Red Sea, focusing instead on strengthening the American military position in the Pacific to counter China…” Yeah, so about that… https://t.co/lWaC9qdDQK

By Tom Shugart
Iran's Control of Vital Waterway Means War Loss
Social•Mar 21, 2026

Iran's Control of Vital Waterway Means War Loss

I’ve said many times On Here that the loser decides the war is over. If this conflict ends with Iran still fighting, and in de facto control of perhaps the most important waterway in the world, then no matter how...

By Tom Shugart
Robust Fleet Essential; Can't Force Ships Through Hormuz
Social•Mar 20, 2026

Robust Fleet Essential; Can't Force Ships Through Hormuz

We may be getting a reminder just how much it matters not to have a robust commercial shipping fleet - no matter what we say, we can’t make other countries’ merchant ships go through the Strait of Hormuz if they...

By Tom Shugart
New Massive Project Rivals SCS's Big Three Islands
Social•Mar 20, 2026

New Massive Project Rivals SCS's Big Three Islands

Here comes another Big One - on track to be as big as any of the Big Three SCS artificial island bases. https://t.co/3JJiM1TcAx

By Tom Shugart
Dozens of Drones Swarm Bomber Base in Multiple Waves
Social•Mar 20, 2026

Dozens of Drones Swarm Bomber Base in Multiple Waves

Re-upping this because apparently there were multiple waves of more than a dozen drones over one of our bomber bases last week. 😬

By Tom Shugart
Pilot Walks Away From Incident, Fails to Squawk 7700
Social•Mar 20, 2026

Pilot Walks Away From Incident, Fails to Squawk 7700

This caught-on-camera incident was the feature of this week's episode of @flywithaopa's excellent There I Was podcast series. Great job by the PIC to walk away from it. The only thing I noted was it didn't seem he squawked 7700, which...

By Tom Shugart
ODNI Threat Assessment Vs. Pentagon China Report: Key Contrasts
Social•Mar 19, 2026

ODNI Threat Assessment Vs. Pentagon China Report: Key Contrasts

Some interesting differences between the newly-released ODNI Annual Threat Assessment and the Pentagon's China Military Power Report (CMPR), released only a few months ago. https://t.co/X6EiKBmG3b

By Tom Shugart
China Demoted to Minor Threat in ODNI Report
Social•Mar 19, 2026

China Demoted to Minor Threat in ODNI Report

Welp, I guess China no longer merits its own place in the ToC of ODNI’s threat assessment report—it’s buried two levels down somewhere in the “regional challenges” part of the “Diverse Threat Vectors” section, whatever that means. (2025 report on...

By Tom Shugart
Victory Claim Meaningless While Iran Controls Conflict’s End
Social•Mar 18, 2026

Victory Claim Meaningless While Iran Controls Conflict’s End

The problem with "declaring victory & ending the war" is that the loser decides when the war is over. U.S. victory declaration or not, if Iran continues to decide who goes through the SoH unmolested, or continues to attack U.S. bases...

By Tom Shugart
New Strategic Vision Calls for Dominant US Navy
Social•Mar 15, 2026

New Strategic Vision Calls for Dominant US Navy

A superb article by @JeffVandenengel outlining an overarching strategic vision for the U.S. Navy in a renewed age of contested sea control. Much-needed - and hopefully much-heeded. https://t.co/7RLK6eTG0I

By Tom Shugart
Death Ground Forces Enemies Into Irrational, Self‑destructive Actions
Social•Mar 14, 2026

Death Ground Forces Enemies Into Irrational, Self‑destructive Actions

One thing I distinctly recall learning in my war college Strategy & Policy course (a military history overview) is the concept of "death ground" - that if you put an enemy in a position that threatens annihilation, they often do...

By Tom Shugart
Modern EVs: 300+ Miles, 10‑minute Top‑up
Social•Mar 14, 2026

Modern EVs: 300+ Miles, 10‑minute Top‑up

Saying "two hours to charge" on a road trip shows instantly you don't know diddly about today's EVs. My EV: ✅ can be driven 300+ plus miles ✅doesn't take 2 hrs to charge (more like 10-15 min to get enough charge to drive...

By Tom Shugart
House of Dynamite's Plot Riddled with Inaccuracies and Illogic
Social•Mar 13, 2026

House of Dynamite's Plot Riddled with Inaccuracies and Illogic

A worthy discussion here of the key inaccuracies and illogicality central to the plot of @netflix's film House of Dynamite: https://t.co/8CFYAw74md

By Tom Shugart
China's Submarines and Missiles Already Pose Major Threat
Social•Mar 11, 2026

China's Submarines and Missiles Already Pose Major Threat

"...China’s existing submarine force as well as its military’s anti-ship and land-attack missiles “already pose such a threat,” said Thomas Shugart, a former U.S. Navy submarine commander." https://t.co/QAKcI3LRKl

By Tom Shugart
Emergency Reactivation Needed Amid Bad Timing and Platform Flaws
Social•Mar 11, 2026

Emergency Reactivation Needed Amid Bad Timing and Platform Flaws

This is just amazingly, spectacularly bad timing. And LCS isn't really a "better" MCM platform than these. Worse, in some ways. IMO the only sensible thing to do right now would be an emergency reactivation given the circumstances, using whatever gear and...

By Tom Shugart

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