Tom Shugart

Tom Shugart

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Naval analyst; undersea warfare, China‑Taiwan scenarios, force posture.

Balancing Ops and Maintenance: War Must Continue
SocialMay 24, 2026

Balancing Ops and Maintenance: War Must Continue

““Between this and the operations in South America, you’ve got a certain ratio of operational time to maintenance time that has to be maintained,” said Tom Shugart, a former US Navy submarine captain now at [@cnasdc]. “I would never say...

By Tom Shugart
It's an Ohio‑Class SSGN, Not a Missile‑armed SSBN
SocialMay 11, 2026

It's an Ohio‑Class SSGN, Not a Missile‑armed SSBN

That is an Ohio-Class SSGN, not an SSBN (note the dry deck shelter on top), i.e., no Trident missiles onboard.

By Tom Shugart
Chinese Airline Crash Concealed for Four Years by CCP
SocialMay 9, 2026

Chinese Airline Crash Concealed for Four Years by CCP

Apparently a Chinese airline had a murder-suicide pilot-induced crash, and we're only finding out about it 4 years later because CCP reasons no doubt... https://t.co/LXIB1I6jZJ

By Tom Shugart
Navy Destroyer Attacks Challenge Claims of Ceasefire
SocialMay 8, 2026

Navy Destroyer Attacks Challenge Claims of Ceasefire

Once again, U.S. Navy destroyers have been attacked, with no doubt the goal of killing hundreds of American sailors. Yet we're supposed to still be in a "ceasefire"? https://t.co/b8nFSh851i

By Tom Shugart
Undersea Dominance Remains the Last Strategic Hideout
SocialMay 7, 2026

Undersea Dominance Remains the Last Strategic Hideout

"“being under water matters because it’s one of the last places you can hide,” says Thomas Shugart, a former submariner." Happy to contribute a few words to this superb article on a vital but often-misunderstood topic: the US-PRC undersea balance. https://t.co/bRwMOVyFJE

By Tom Shugart
Ukraine Lessons Demand Disaggregated Command and Control
SocialMay 7, 2026

Ukraine Lessons Demand Disaggregated Command and Control

L: me in @WarOnTheRocks in 2021 R: today's article in @WarOnTheRocks, discussing the need to disaggregate C2 following the lessons of Ukraine: https://t.co/9LJPn7Vtjj https://t.co/DEzkQipu7o

By Tom Shugart
Ending War Cedes Strategic Waterway to Iran
SocialMay 6, 2026

Ending War Cedes Strategic Waterway to Iran

I am neither a neocon nor an Israeli (in fact I try to stay out of politics), but as a navalist I for one will criticize the result if we end the war with Iran in de facto control of...

By Tom Shugart
China’s Missile Buildup Dwarfs US TLAM Deployment to Philippines
SocialMay 6, 2026

China’s Missile Buildup Dwarfs US TLAM Deployment to Philippines

Yes, the deployment of likely a handful of TLAMs to the Philippines is SOOO provocative. Meanwhile, during the period the U.S. was bound by the INF Treaty and the PRC was not, China got a head start on building literally thousands...

By Tom Shugart
Blockade by Force Legally Constitutes an Act of War
SocialApr 30, 2026

Blockade by Force Legally Constitutes an Act of War

“A blockade is considered an act of war under international law.” If a foreign power was by force preventing ships from entering or leaving our ports, hunting down our ships on the high seas, is there any chance we wouldn’t consider...

By Tom Shugart
China Poised to Restart Type 071 Amphibious Ship Production
SocialApr 30, 2026

China Poised to Restart Type 071 Amphibious Ship Production

A few thoughts on China's possible restart of Type 071 amphibious assault ship construction. Subscribe for free and read it here at my substack, The Shugart Update: https://t.co/Wv0hif6Ixj https://t.co/yjmKm4ASHF

By Tom Shugart
China Resumes Production of Type‑071 Amphibious Assault Ships
SocialApr 30, 2026

China Resumes Production of Type‑071 Amphibious Assault Ships

PRC SHIPYARD UPDATE: based on recently-acquired imagery of the Hudong-Zhonghua shipyard, it looks to me like the PRC may have restarted production of its currently 8-strong Type 071 class of amphibious assault ships. https://t.co/e7aAj3UWqp

By Tom Shugart
New Long-Range Mine Insertion Platform Welcomed
SocialApr 24, 2026

New Long-Range Mine Insertion Platform Welcomed

Glad to see this development - we definitely need as many long-range mine insertion platforms as we can get. https://t.co/rzIKA8U98q

By Tom Shugart
Strait of Hormuz Not Truly Open Without
SocialApr 17, 2026

Strait of Hormuz Not Truly Open Without

If navigation is not possible for all merchant vessels using the standard IMO traffic separation scheme, and without payment of a toll to Iran, then the SoH is not actually open.

By Tom Shugart
US Blockade of Iran Means War Persists
SocialApr 14, 2026

US Blockade of Iran Means War Persists

Reminder: a blockade is an act of war, enforced by violence at sea or the threat thereof. As long as the US blockade of Iran is ongoing, so is the war.

By Tom Shugart