Sonobuoys Only Shove Submarines Aside, Not Stop Them
Dropping sonobuoys on a submarine IS “shooing them away”. There isn’t much you can do beyond that that doesn’t risk killing people - a lot of them.
Prioritize Sailors' Safety Over Risky Warship Experiments
For the sake of the living, breathing American sailors on such warship, how about we not just do this and “see what happens”.
Ships Urged to Arrange Safety with Iranian Authorities
Vessels should make "necessary arrangements" with the Iranian authorities to, y'know, to ensure their safety... https://t.co/FWioFWbR7u
Civilian Ferries Dramatically Boost Amphibious Lift Capacity
"Mr Shugart said that while the ferries were not purpose-built warships, their sheer numbers mattered. "Dedicated amphibious ships are limited," he said. "But if you can draw on a large civilian ferry fleet, you expand your lift capacity dramatically."" https://t.co/4hzqrhSqWy
Half‑Billion Dollar Jet Exposed, Satellite‑Guided Weapon Hits It
“...What on earth was this half-billion dollar airplane doing sitting right out in the open, where commercial satellite imagery can see exactly where it was and target a weapon onto that, which apparently they did,” said Tom Shugart... https://t.co/rsnIuBIpuk
U.S. Ops Show Resource Drain, Not Maritime Power
Counterpoint: no, it isn't. None of those operations in any way demonstrate U.S. capabilities in a high-end peer-on-peer conflict in a largely maritime theater. If anything, it demonstrates the U.S. expending scarce readiness and resources against someone other than China.
US Ignored Red Sea Base Upgrades, Prioritized Pacific Against China
“The Biden and Trump administrations didn’t act on recommendations to upgrade a network of Saudi bases near the Red Sea, focusing instead on strengthening the American military position in the Pacific to counter China…” Yeah, so about that… https://t.co/lWaC9qdDQK
Excuses Mask Feasibility of Large Aircraft Shelters
When folks tell you "nothing to be done, can't build shelters for big wing aircraft", remember that this is excuse-making... https://t.co/A3SGRdyQJn
Is the U.S. Blockade of Cuba Actually War?
Did we declare war with Cuba when I wasn’t looking? Because a “blockade” is an act of war. 🤔 https://t.co/OSJUztca8h
Iran's Control of Vital Waterway Means War Loss
I’ve said many times On Here that the loser decides the war is over. If this conflict ends with Iran still fighting, and in de facto control of perhaps the most important waterway in the world, then no matter how...
Robust Fleet Essential; Can't Force Ships Through Hormuz
We may be getting a reminder just how much it matters not to have a robust commercial shipping fleet - no matter what we say, we can’t make other countries’ merchant ships go through the Strait of Hormuz if they...
New Massive Project Rivals SCS's Big Three Islands
Here comes another Big One - on track to be as big as any of the Big Three SCS artificial island bases. https://t.co/3JJiM1TcAx
Dozens of Drones Swarm Bomber Base in Multiple Waves
Re-upping this because apparently there were multiple waves of more than a dozen drones over one of our bomber bases last week. 😬
Pilot Walks Away From Incident, Fails to Squawk 7700
This caught-on-camera incident was the feature of this week's episode of @flywithaopa's excellent There I Was podcast series. Great job by the PIC to walk away from it. The only thing I noted was it didn't seem he squawked 7700, which...
ODNI Threat Assessment Vs. Pentagon China Report: Key Contrasts
Some interesting differences between the newly-released ODNI Annual Threat Assessment and the Pentagon's China Military Power Report (CMPR), released only a few months ago. https://t.co/X6EiKBmG3b
China Demoted to Minor Threat in ODNI Report
Welp, I guess China no longer merits its own place in the ToC of ODNI’s threat assessment report—it’s buried two levels down somewhere in the “regional challenges” part of the “Diverse Threat Vectors” section, whatever that means. (2025 report on...
Victory Claim Meaningless While Iran Controls Conflict’s End
The problem with "declaring victory & ending the war" is that the loser decides when the war is over. U.S. victory declaration or not, if Iran continues to decide who goes through the SoH unmolested, or continues to attack U.S. bases...
New Strategic Vision Calls for Dominant US Navy
A superb article by @JeffVandenengel outlining an overarching strategic vision for the U.S. Navy in a renewed age of contested sea control. Much-needed - and hopefully much-heeded. https://t.co/7RLK6eTG0I
Death Ground Forces Enemies Into Irrational, Self‑destructive Actions
One thing I distinctly recall learning in my war college Strategy & Policy course (a military history overview) is the concept of "death ground" - that if you put an enemy in a position that threatens annihilation, they often do...
Modern EVs: 300+ Miles, 10‑minute Top‑up
Saying "two hours to charge" on a road trip shows instantly you don't know diddly about today's EVs. My EV: ✅ can be driven 300+ plus miles ✅doesn't take 2 hrs to charge (more like 10-15 min to get enough charge to drive...
House of Dynamite's Plot Riddled with Inaccuracies and Illogic
A worthy discussion here of the key inaccuracies and illogicality central to the plot of @netflix's film House of Dynamite: https://t.co/8CFYAw74md
China's Submarines and Missiles Already Pose Major Threat
"...China’s existing submarine force as well as its military’s anti-ship and land-attack missiles “already pose such a threat,” said Thomas Shugart, a former U.S. Navy submarine commander." https://t.co/QAKcI3LRKl
Emergency Reactivation Needed Amid Bad Timing and Platform Flaws
This is just amazingly, spectacularly bad timing. And LCS isn't really a "better" MCM platform than these. Worse, in some ways. IMO the only sensible thing to do right now would be an emergency reactivation given the circumstances, using whatever gear and...
U.S. Chose Torpedo Over Safer Capture Option
This is completely off the mark. IRIS Dena was reported to have been equipped with SAMs & ASCMs as well as guns. To hazard an American surface ship (or aircraft) by approaching to attempt a capture would be operational malpractice when...
Article Overlooks Crucial DoD Insights From Latest
Somewhat odd to me that this article on the PRC's 2027 timeline doesn't include highly relevant DoD analysis provided in the most recent China Military Power Report (CMPR)... https://t.co/4xZjZX8KmY
U.S. Merchant Marine Decline Leaves Ships Crewless of Loyalty
Easy to say from the comfort of your TV studio. 🙄 Let’s not forget that due to decades of neglect the U.S. merchant marine has dwindled away to near-nonexistence, so the folks on those the vast majority of those ships owe...
RStatecraft's War Crime Claims on US Submariners Debunked
@rstatecraft just doubled down on its story all-but-accusing U.S. submariners of committing war crimes, even though we now know that several of its key points are factually incorrect. Amazing. Never change, @QuincyInst. https://t.co/zNquQWgVa0
Navy Faces Prolonged Wear and Tear, Recovery Challenging
"“There’s going to be wear and tear on the Navy that’s going to be difficult to recover from very quickly,” said Thomas Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow at [@cnasdc]." https://t.co/TW7rE9fX7S
Strait of Hormuz AIS Data Shows Impossible Ship Speeds
There's something going on with either AIS broadcasts (or the GPS that feeds them) near the Strait of Hormuz. Lots of ships showing impossible speeds. https://t.co/g0bFAeW8yN
US
We now have reporting both that there was another Iranian Navy ship in the area, and also that the U.S. government took measures appropriate under Intl law to ensure rescue authorities were notified of the sinking of IRIS Dena, and...
Accusatory Article Ignores Second Iranian Warship Presence
What we do know now is that your accusatory article is fundamentally flawed - there was another Iranian warship in the area. And yet you seem to stand by it, unedited. https://t.co/w6a9Zhpl6X
Inside USS Charlotte’s Torpedo Attack Battlestations Procedures
For an idea of what things looked like onboard USS Charlotte during its attack on IRIS Dena, this Navy video shows some of the procedures to man battlestations and conduct a torpedo attack. This is for a submerged target but...
US Submarine Not Sole Target; Iranian Support Ship Present
The most fundamental point in this @rstatecraft article that all-but-accuses U.S. submariners of committing a war crime is incorrect. Because we now know that there was, in fact, another Iranian warship in the area - the replenishment ship IRIS Bandar Abbas....
Aging Sub, Modern Tech Sinks Iranian Ship After WWII
USS Charlotte (SSN 766) may have been in service for ~32 years but—thanks to the U.S. submarine force's ARCI program—like all U.S. SSNs it will have received regular updates to sonar and fire control systems. In fact, those systems may...
Iranian Navy Ship Seeks Asylum in Sri Lanka Amid War
It seems like this is now happening, with the news that the Iranian Navy auxiliary ship Bandar Abbas is now seeking shelter in port in Sri Lanka to wait out the war in an interned status.
Mark 48 Ranks Among US Navy’s Deadliest Anti‑ship Weapons
“"The Mark 48 is one of the most lethal anti-ship weapons in the U.S. inventory," Thomas Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow at [@cnasdc], told Fox News Digital.” https://t.co/B4fV7Sgz82
Modern Nuclear Subs Can't Safely Rescue Survivors at Sea
PSA regarding the fact that the U.S. submarine that sank IRIS Dena did not pick up survivors: due to the configuration of modern nuclear submarines, it is generally going to be infeasible to pick up such survivors in open ocean...
US Doesn't Control Strait of Hormuz, Claim Debunked
This is complete nonsense. Literally the only ships I've seen going through the Strait are Iranian and those indicating their crews are Chinese. And we don't "control" the SoH at all right now. Having Sea Control means that you get to...
U.S. Nuclear Sub Can Strike Iran Unchecked, Lacking Detection
"...Shugart said he was not surprised that the U.S. nuclear submarine could strike with such impunity when ordered to do so, especially because the Iranian vessel likely did not have the technology needed to detect and destroy submarines..." https://t.co/vjrKh0Quht
US Submarine Can Easily Sink Iranian Frigate, China Knows
Been hearing some "message to China" takes here and well...I'm sure the Chinese already knew that a U.S. SSN would have little trouble taking down lone Iranian frigate if ordered to do so—one with near-zero ASW capability. https://t.co/3NdN0Ojzho
SECDEF Claims Submarine Kill, Video Still Missing
Apparently SECDEF showed a video of the actual submarine attack but none of the live feeds I've seen panned over to show it. 🤦♂️ Where is the video?!?
U.S. Submarines Achieve First Torpedo Kill Since WWII
Wow. The U.S. submarine force may have just gotten its first torpedo kill since WWII. 😯 https://t.co/LVx8OqONAC
US Intel: China Shifting to All‑nuclear Submarine Fleet
🚨🚨🚨 This jumped out at me too. From @USCC_GOV testimony today: U.S. naval intelligence assesses the PLA Navy is shifting from mostly-diesel-electric to ALL-NUCLEAR submarine construction. https://t.co/MH29AhfVvT
PLA Rocket Force Poised to Overwhelm Regional Missile Defenses
While I share some concerns about key munitions being pulled out of INDOPACOM, folks should understand that even with full stocks of interceptors, the PLA Rocket Force is highly likely to be able to overwhelm U.S. and allied BMD in...
Military Barred From Top Defense Think Tanks, Limiting Expertise
Deeply disappointing to see that many of our top defense-related think tanks are now off-limits to our military’s officers. I would never have gotten to where I am as a China analyst without my time as a military fellow at @cnasdc,...
Experts Deem Nuclear-Powered Carrier Extremely Likely
"“It increases my confidence that this will be a nuclear-powered carrier—to the point that I’d call it extremely likely,” Shugart said, noting similarities to early construction images of the U.S. Navy’s Ford-class carriers, which use two reactors." https://t.co/n8sDQyYJv6
China Still Clings to Outdated Carrier Strategy
“Tom Shugart, senior fellow at [@cnasdc], said: “Obviously [China] didn’t get the memo about carriers being obsolete.”” https://t.co/UhHbFPdoEt
China's Submarines May Adopt Dual Towed-Array ASW
Looks to me like there might be towed array deployment tubes on the end of those upper x-planes (see the LA-class diagram on the right for an example). If that is what they are, would indicate plans to conduct dual-towed-array acoustic...
US‑China Conflict Could Mirror WWII Naval Battles
A war between the United States and China would involve the type of naval combat that last took place during World War II, said retired Navy Capt. Thomas Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow with [@cnasdc] in Washington, D.C. https://t.co/UAJhA8hIUd
China Targets Taiwan Reunification by 2049, Not Surrender
This idea of the CCP pursuing "paralysis" of Taiwan isn't wrong per se, but I don't see in here anywhere the prospect of Taiwan surrendering so it can enjoy the Hong Kong experience. And Xi has made the PRC's goals...