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Tom Shugart

Tom Shugart

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Naval analyst; undersea warfare, China‑Taiwan scenarios, force posture.

U.S. Chose Torpedo Over Safer Capture Option
Social•Mar 11, 2026

U.S. Chose Torpedo Over Safer Capture Option

This is completely off the mark. IRIS Dena was reported to have been equipped with SAMs & ASCMs as well as guns. To hazard an American surface ship (or aircraft) by approaching to attempt a capture would be operational malpractice when a near-zero-risk submarine option exists. https://t.co/FSeiZzmA0l

By Tom Shugart
Article Overlooks Crucial DoD Insights From Latest
Social•Mar 9, 2026

Article Overlooks Crucial DoD Insights From Latest

Somewhat odd to me that this article on the PRC's 2027 timeline doesn't include highly relevant DoD analysis provided in the most recent China Military Power Report (CMPR)... https://t.co/4xZjZX8KmY

By Tom Shugart
U.S. Merchant Marine Decline Leaves Ships Crewless of Loyalty
Social•Mar 9, 2026

U.S. Merchant Marine Decline Leaves Ships Crewless of Loyalty

Easy to say from the comfort of your TV studio. 🙄 Let’s not forget that due to decades of neglect the U.S. merchant marine has dwindled away to near-nonexistence, so the folks on those the vast majority of those ships owe...

By Tom Shugart
RStatecraft's War Crime Claims on US Submariners Debunked
Social•Mar 8, 2026

RStatecraft's War Crime Claims on US Submariners Debunked

@rstatecraft just doubled down on its story all-but-accusing U.S. submariners of committing war crimes, even though we now know that several of its key points are factually incorrect. Amazing. Never change, @QuincyInst. https://t.co/zNquQWgVa0

By Tom Shugart
Navy Faces Prolonged Wear and Tear, Recovery Challenging
Social•Mar 8, 2026

Navy Faces Prolonged Wear and Tear, Recovery Challenging

"“There’s going to be wear and tear on the Navy that’s going to be difficult to recover from very quickly,” said Thomas Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow at [@cnasdc]." https://t.co/TW7rE9fX7S

By Tom Shugart
Strait of Hormuz AIS Data Shows Impossible Ship Speeds
Social•Mar 8, 2026

Strait of Hormuz AIS Data Shows Impossible Ship Speeds

There's something going on with either AIS broadcasts (or the GPS that feeds them) near the Strait of Hormuz. Lots of ships showing impossible speeds. https://t.co/g0bFAeW8yN

By Tom Shugart
US
Social•Mar 7, 2026

US

We now have reporting both that there was another Iranian Navy ship in the area, and also that the U.S. government took measures appropriate under Intl law to ensure rescue authorities were notified of the sinking of IRIS Dena, and...

By Tom Shugart
Accusatory Article Ignores Second Iranian Warship Presence
Social•Mar 6, 2026

Accusatory Article Ignores Second Iranian Warship Presence

What we do know now is that your accusatory article is fundamentally flawed - there was another Iranian warship in the area. And yet you seem to stand by it, unedited. https://t.co/w6a9Zhpl6X

By Tom Shugart
Inside USS Charlotte’s Torpedo Attack Battlestations Procedures
Social•Mar 6, 2026

Inside USS Charlotte’s Torpedo Attack Battlestations Procedures

For an idea of what things looked like onboard USS Charlotte during its attack on IRIS Dena, this Navy video shows some of the procedures to man battlestations and conduct a torpedo attack. This is for a submerged target but...

By Tom Shugart
US Submarine Not Sole Target; Iranian Support Ship Present
Social•Mar 6, 2026

US Submarine Not Sole Target; Iranian Support Ship Present

The most fundamental point in this @rstatecraft article that all-but-accuses U.S. submariners of committing a war crime is incorrect. Because we now know that there was, in fact, another Iranian warship in the area - the replenishment ship IRIS Bandar Abbas....

By Tom Shugart
Aging Sub, Modern Tech Sinks Iranian Ship After WWII
Social•Mar 6, 2026

Aging Sub, Modern Tech Sinks Iranian Ship After WWII

USS Charlotte (SSN 766) may have been in service for ~32 years but—thanks to the U.S. submarine force's ARCI program—like all U.S. SSNs it will have received regular updates to sonar and fire control systems. In fact, those systems may...

By Tom Shugart
Iranian Navy Ship Seeks Asylum in Sri Lanka Amid War
Social•Mar 5, 2026

Iranian Navy Ship Seeks Asylum in Sri Lanka Amid War

It seems like this is now happening, with the news that the Iranian Navy auxiliary ship Bandar Abbas is now seeking shelter in port in Sri Lanka to wait out the war in an interned status.

By Tom Shugart
Mark 48 Ranks Among US Navy’s Deadliest Anti‑ship Weapons
Social•Mar 5, 2026

Mark 48 Ranks Among US Navy’s Deadliest Anti‑ship Weapons

“"The Mark 48 is one of the most lethal anti-ship weapons in the U.S. inventory," Thomas Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow at [@cnasdc], told Fox News Digital.” https://t.co/B4fV7Sgz82

By Tom Shugart
Modern Nuclear Subs Can't Safely Rescue Survivors at Sea
Social•Mar 5, 2026

Modern Nuclear Subs Can't Safely Rescue Survivors at Sea

PSA regarding the fact that the U.S. submarine that sank IRIS Dena did not pick up survivors: due to the configuration of modern nuclear submarines, it is generally going to be infeasible to pick up such survivors in open ocean...

By Tom Shugart
US Doesn't Control Strait of Hormuz, Claim Debunked
Social•Mar 5, 2026

US Doesn't Control Strait of Hormuz, Claim Debunked

This is complete nonsense. Literally the only ships I've seen going through the Strait are Iranian and those indicating their crews are Chinese. And we don't "control" the SoH at all right now. Having Sea Control means that you get to...

By Tom Shugart
U.S. Nuclear Sub Can Strike Iran Unchecked, Lacking Detection
Social•Mar 4, 2026

U.S. Nuclear Sub Can Strike Iran Unchecked, Lacking Detection

"...Shugart said he was not surprised that the U.S. nuclear submarine could strike with such impunity when ordered to do so, especially because the Iranian vessel likely did not have the technology needed to detect and destroy submarines..." https://t.co/vjrKh0Quht

By Tom Shugart
US Submarine Can Easily Sink Iranian Frigate, China Knows
Social•Mar 4, 2026

US Submarine Can Easily Sink Iranian Frigate, China Knows

Been hearing some "message to China" takes here and well...I'm sure the Chinese already knew that a U.S. SSN would have little trouble taking down lone Iranian frigate if ordered to do so—one with near-zero ASW capability. https://t.co/3NdN0Ojzho

By Tom Shugart
SECDEF Claims Submarine Kill, Video Still Missing
Social•Mar 4, 2026

SECDEF Claims Submarine Kill, Video Still Missing

Apparently SECDEF showed a video of the actual submarine attack but none of the live feeds I've seen panned over to show it. 🤦‍♂️ Where is the video?!?

By Tom Shugart
U.S. Submarines Achieve First Torpedo Kill Since WWII
Social•Mar 4, 2026

U.S. Submarines Achieve First Torpedo Kill Since WWII

Wow. The U.S. submarine force may have just gotten its first torpedo kill since WWII. 😯 https://t.co/LVx8OqONAC

By Tom Shugart
US Intel: China Shifting to All‑nuclear Submarine Fleet
Social•Mar 2, 2026

US Intel: China Shifting to All‑nuclear Submarine Fleet

🚨🚨🚨 This jumped out at me too. From @USCC_GOV testimony today: U.S. naval intelligence assesses the PLA Navy is shifting from mostly-diesel-electric to ALL-NUCLEAR submarine construction. https://t.co/MH29AhfVvT

By Tom Shugart
PLA Rocket Force Poised to Overwhelm Regional Missile Defenses
Social•Mar 2, 2026

PLA Rocket Force Poised to Overwhelm Regional Missile Defenses

While I share some concerns about key munitions being pulled out of INDOPACOM, folks should understand that even with full stocks of interceptors, the PLA Rocket Force is highly likely to be able to overwhelm U.S. and allied BMD in...

By Tom Shugart
Military Barred From Top Defense Think Tanks, Limiting Expertise
Social•Feb 28, 2026

Military Barred From Top Defense Think Tanks, Limiting Expertise

Deeply disappointing to see that many of our top defense-related think tanks are now off-limits to our military’s officers. I would never have gotten to where I am as a China analyst without my time as a military fellow at @cnasdc,...

By Tom Shugart
Experts Deem Nuclear-Powered Carrier Extremely Likely
Social•Feb 25, 2026

Experts Deem Nuclear-Powered Carrier Extremely Likely

"“It increases my confidence that this will be a nuclear-powered carrier—to the point that I’d call it extremely likely,” Shugart said, noting similarities to early construction images of the U.S. Navy’s Ford-class carriers, which use two reactors." https://t.co/n8sDQyYJv6

By Tom Shugart
China Still Clings to Outdated Carrier Strategy
Social•Feb 17, 2026

China Still Clings to Outdated Carrier Strategy

“Tom Shugart, senior fellow at [@cnasdc], said: “Obviously [China] didn’t get the memo about carriers being obsolete.”” https://t.co/UhHbFPdoEt

By Tom Shugart
China's Submarines May Adopt Dual Towed-Array ASW
Social•Feb 17, 2026

China's Submarines May Adopt Dual Towed-Array ASW

Looks to me like there might be towed array deployment tubes on the end of those upper x-planes (see the LA-class diagram on the right for an example). If that is what they are, would indicate plans to conduct dual-towed-array acoustic...

By Tom Shugart
US‑China Conflict Could Mirror WWII Naval Battles
Social•Feb 11, 2026

US‑China Conflict Could Mirror WWII Naval Battles

A war between the United States and China would involve the type of naval combat that last took place during World War II, said retired Navy Capt. Thomas Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow with [@cnasdc] in Washington, D.C. https://t.co/UAJhA8hIUd

By Tom Shugart
China Targets Taiwan Reunification by 2049, Not Surrender
Social•Feb 10, 2026

China Targets Taiwan Reunification by 2049, Not Surrender

This idea of the CCP pursuing "paralysis" of Taiwan isn't wrong per se, but I don't see in here anywhere the prospect of Taiwan surrendering so it can enjoy the Hong Kong experience. And Xi has made the PRC's goals...

By Tom Shugart

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