Tomasz Tunguz

Tomasz Tunguz

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Venture capitalist at @theoryvc Student of Startups Backer of 9 unicorns Author of https://t.co/IWw3R3RVLm Subscribe https://t.co/iDgoLXaF98

AI Cuts SDR Team Tenfold in Six Weeks
SocialDec 1, 2025

AI Cuts SDR Team Tenfold in Six Weeks

I remember hosting a dinner of sales leaders to talk about AI. I asked them what will your CRM do for you in the future? Nearly unanimously came the reply : enable salespeople to spend most of their time with...

By Tomasz Tunguz
Rethink GTM Pricing, Hiring, Compensation for AI Scale
SocialNov 25, 2025

Rethink GTM Pricing, Hiring, Compensation for AI Scale

Office Hours: GTM Leadership in the AI Era: Pricing, Hiring, and Compensation Thursday, December 11 5:30–7:30 PM PDT As AI-native companies scale, GTM leaders are being forced to rethink long-standing assumptions about pricing, hiring, incentives, and how revenue organizations should operate in a...

By Tomasz Tunguz
Rethinking GTM Pricing, Hiring, Compensation for AI Scale
SocialNov 25, 2025

Rethinking GTM Pricing, Hiring, Compensation for AI Scale

Office Hours: GTM Leadership in the AI Era: Pricing, Hiring, and Compensation Thursday, December 11 5:30–7:30 PM PDT As AI-native companies scale, GTM leaders are being forced to rethink long-standing assumptions about pricing, hiring, incentives, and how revenue organizations should...

By Tomasz Tunguz
Private Equity : The New Distribution Channel for AI Startups
BlogNov 25, 2025

Private Equity : The New Distribution Channel for AI Startups

The post argues that private equity (PE) firms have become the primary distribution channel for AI startups, thanks to the rapid growth of PE‑owned companies—now outnumbering public firms 4:1 in the US. Because PE portfolios consist mainly of mid‑market firms...

By Tomasz Tunguz
AI Market Sizzles: Rapid Change Fuels Excitement
SocialNov 21, 2025

AI Market Sizzles: Rapid Change Fuels Excitement

The AI market today is bacon in a hot skillet. Everything is sizzling, moving, & changing at an incredible pace. We’re all watching it closely. Market share is fluid because no one yet knows what AI can do & the...

By Tomasz Tunguz
The Bacon & the Skillet: When Does the AI Market Congeal?
BlogNov 21, 2025

The Bacon & the Skillet: When Does the AI Market Congeal?

The post likens the rapidly evolving AI market to sizzling bacon, emphasizing that fluid market share and high switching costs are driven by continual model improvements like Nvidia chips and Gemini 3. It argues that while the current phase rewards speed...

By Tomasz Tunguz
Nvidia Earnings and Gemini Tweet Reshape AI Narrative
SocialNov 20, 2025

Nvidia Earnings and Gemini Tweet Reshape AI Narrative

Two revelations this week have shaken the narrative in AI : Nvidia’s earnings & this tweet about Gemini. The AI industry spent 2025 convinced that pre-training scaling laws had hit a wall . Models weren’t improving just from adding more...

By Tomasz Tunguz
The Scaling Wall Was A Mirage
BlogNov 20, 2025

The Scaling Wall Was A Mirage

The post argues that the supposed "scaling wall" in AI pre‑training has been disproven by recent developments: Gemini 3 achieved dramatic performance gains without increasing parameters, showing that algorithmic and compute improvements still drive scaling laws, and Nvidia's record earnings and...

By Tomasz Tunguz
Production AI Teams Favor Open‑Source Models and Database‑Backed Agents
SocialNov 17, 2025

Production AI Teams Favor Open‑Source Models and Database‑Backed Agents

70% of production AI teams use open source models. 72.5% connect agents to databases, not chat interfaces. This is what 375 technical builders actually ship - & it looks nothing like Twitter AI. 70% of teams use open source models...

By Tomasz Tunguz
Microsoft Pivots to Agent‑centric Infrastructure Business
SocialNov 17, 2025

Microsoft Pivots to Agent‑centric Infrastructure Business

"Our business, which today is an end-user tools business, will become essentially an infrastructure business in support of agents doing work." — Satya Nadella Microsoft talking about their view where the value accrues : agent infrastructure https://t.co/1TaxJpOeCB

By Tomasz Tunguz
Distilling Tool-Calling Skills From Claude to Smaller Model
SocialNov 13, 2025

Distilling Tool-Calling Skills From Claude to Smaller Model

Ten months ago, DeepSeek collapsed AI training costs by 90% using distillation - transferring knowledge from larger models to smaller ones at a fraction of the cost. Distillation works like a tutor training a student : a large model teaches a...

By Tomasz Tunguz
DeepSeek Cuts AI Training Costs 90% via Distillation
SocialNov 13, 2025

DeepSeek Cuts AI Training Costs 90% via Distillation

Ten months ago, DeepSeek collapsed AI training costs by 90% using distillation - transferring knowledge from larger models to smaller ones at a fraction of the cost. Distillation works like a tutor training a student : a large model teaches...

By Tomasz Tunguz
Model Firms Risk Winner's Curse without Unique Data
SocialNov 13, 2025

Model Firms Risk Winner's Curse without Unique Data

If you're a model company, you may have a winner's curse. You did all the hard work... except it's kind of like one copy away from being commoditized. And then the person who has the data for grounding can go...

By Tomasz Tunguz
Teaching Local Models to Call Tools Like Claude
BlogNov 13, 2025

Teaching Local Models to Call Tools Like Claude

The author reports a proof‑of‑concept that distills tool‑calling behavior from Claude into a local 20B GPT‑OSS model by logging Claude’s tool selections, curating the data with SemDeDup and CaR, and iteratively refining prompts using DSPy and GEPA. Over three optimization...

By Tomasz Tunguz
Datadog's Platform Shift Drives 25% Quarterly Growth
SocialNov 10, 2025

Datadog's Platform Shift Drives 25% Quarterly Growth

Datadog is becoming a platform company, & its Q3 2025 results underscore how successful this transition is. If nothing else, the consistency around 25% growth for the last 12 quarters exemplifies this point. Net dollar retention underpins this growth, combined...

By Tomasz Tunguz
AI Promotions Spark Unprecedented Unsubscribe Surge, Exposing Reader Fear
SocialNov 6, 2025

AI Promotions Spark Unprecedented Unsubscribe Surge, Exposing Reader Fear

I wrote a post about AI promotions. It triggered the highest unsubscribe rate in this blog's history. A 4-sigma event - expected once every 700 years. The data reveals what readers feared 🧵

By Tomasz Tunguz
Are We Being Railroaded by AI?
BlogNov 6, 2025

Are We Being Railroaded by AI?

The post compares AI infrastructure spending to historic U.S. investment projects, showing AI at 1.6% of GDP in 2024—far below World War II, the New Deal, and the railroad boom. It highlights current corporate outlays (Microsoft, Google, Meta) and projects OpenAI’s...

By Tomasz Tunguz
OpenAI Plans $1.15 Trillion Infrastructure Investment by 2035
SocialNov 4, 2025

OpenAI Plans $1.15 Trillion Infrastructure Investment by 2035

OpenAI has committed to spending $1.15 trillion on hardware & cloud infrastructure between 2025 & 2035. 1 The spending breaks down across seven major vendors: Broadcom ($350B), Oracle ($300B), Microsoft ($250B), Nvidia ($100B), AMD ($90B), Amazon AWS ($38B), & CoreWeave...

By Tomasz Tunguz
Cloud‑migrated DuckDB Slashes Podcast Processing Costs
SocialOct 31, 2025

Cloud‑migrated DuckDB Slashes Podcast Processing Costs

I sleep better knowing my agents work through the night. Less work for me in the morning. My podcast processor transcribes & analyzes conversations. I started on my laptop, needed a little database to collect podcast data & metadata, & booted...

By Tomasz Tunguz
Night‑Shift Agents Let Me Sleep Better
SocialOct 31, 2025

Night‑Shift Agents Let Me Sleep Better

I sleep better knowing my agents work through the night. Less work for me in the morning. My podcast processor transcribes & analyzes conversations. I started on my laptop, needed a little database to collect podcast data & metadata, &...

By Tomasz Tunguz
$555B of Cloud Spend
BlogOct 30, 2025

$555B of Cloud Spend

Microsoft and Google reported surging AI-driven cloud demand, with combined remaining performance obligations and capex commitments swelling to roughly $555 billion as both ramp data-center builds and GPU capacity. Microsoft’s commercial RPO topped nearly $400 billion and Google’s backlog hit...

By Tomasz Tunguz
Double Speed, Ten Percent Cost: Game-Changing Efficiency
SocialOct 29, 2025

Double Speed, Ten Percent Cost: Game-Changing Efficiency

Twice as fast & 10% of the cost! https://t.co/Z5m1T8nleq

By Tomasz Tunguz
Public SaaS Stagnates; Private AI Unicorns Lead Growth
SocialOct 27, 2025

Public SaaS Stagnates; Private AI Unicorns Lead Growth

As the world follows every whisper & rumor from AI, what has happened to public SaaS? The answer is not much! All the fun is in the private markets. Multiples haven’t moved outside of a narrow band since the post-Covid crash in...

By Tomasz Tunguz
Product‑Market Fit Is Ongoing, Not a One‑Time Milestone
SocialOct 23, 2025

Product‑Market Fit Is Ongoing, Not a One‑Time Milestone

There’s this notion that product market fit is this binary condition that once you pass the gate, you’re done. And that’s no longer the case. Product market fit is like United Miles. You continue to fly to maintain 1K. And...

By Tomasz Tunguz
Product-Market Fit Is No Longer Static
BlogOct 23, 2025

Product-Market Fit Is No Longer Static

Venture investor Tomasz Tunguz argues product-market fit (PMF) is no longer a one-time milestone but a continuous condition because rapid advances in AI are constantly reshaping customer needs and technical possibilities. He points to firms that lost PMF between 2021–2024,...

By Tomasz Tunguz
Scaling AI: Strategies for Building Intelligent Systems
SocialOct 20, 2025

Scaling AI: Strategies for Building Intelligent Systems

How do you build AI systems that scale? On Nov 12 in SF, I’ll host Calvin French-Owen (Co-founder & former CTO @Segment, led @OpenAI's Codex launch) for a Theory Ventures Office Hours conversation on scaling intelligent systems. We’ll dig into: ⚙️ Building...

By Tomasz Tunguz
From Columns to Rewards: Automating the Two Pillars That Drive Modern AI
BlogOct 20, 2025

From Columns to Rewards: Automating the Two Pillars That Drive Modern AI

Former Google engineers automated feature engineering with AutoML—turning manual spreadsheet column tinkering into processes that added tens to hundreds of millions in revenue—and the author argues reinforcement learning (RL) is now at that same inflection point. Today RL can generate...

By Tomasz Tunguz
Choose the Right Location for Your AI Agents
SocialOct 17, 2025

Choose the Right Location for Your AI Agents

It’s 9:30 AM. Do you know where your agent is? As we enter the era of agentic AI, this is an increasingly important question. ChatGPT launched the consumer use of AI, compressing all of human knowledge into a single model....

By Tomasz Tunguz
Know Your Agent’s Real‑Time Location at 9:30 AM
SocialOct 17, 2025

Know Your Agent’s Real‑Time Location at 9:30 AM

It’s 9:30 AM. Do you know where your agent is? As we enter the era of agentic AI, this is an increasingly important question. ChatGPT launched the consumer use of AI, compressing all of human knowledge into a single model....

By Tomasz Tunguz
AI Becomes New Mass Media, Replacing Traditional Web Browsing
SocialOct 16, 2025

AI Becomes New Mass Media, Replacing Traditional Web Browsing

I asked Claude this morning about the most important news in tech. A few follow-up questions about Salesforce’s Dreamforce, Samsung’s XR headset, & TSMC earnings later, I popped over to ChatGPT Pulse. It suggested some updates about the Fed’s rates...

By Tomasz Tunguz
AI Assistants Streamline Daily Tech and Finance Updates
SocialOct 16, 2025

AI Assistants Streamline Daily Tech and Finance Updates

I asked Claude this morning about the most important news in tech. A few follow-up questions about Salesforce’s Dreamforce, Samsung’s XR headset, & TSMC earnings later, I popped over to ChatGPT Pulse . It suggested some updates about the Fed’s...

By Tomasz Tunguz
Fivetran‑dbt Merger: A Natural Evolution of Data Stack
SocialOct 14, 2025

Fivetran‑dbt Merger: A Natural Evolution of Data Stack

Why was the Fivetran-dbt merger all but inevitable? Fivetran & dbt Labs announced their merger yesterday. The all-stock deal combines two companies into an entity approaching $600 million in ARR. The beauty of the modern data stack was the explosion...

By Tomasz Tunguz
The Data Pendulum Swings to Consolidation
BlogOct 14, 2025

The Data Pendulum Swings to Consolidation

Fivetran and dbt Labs have announced a merger in an all-stock deal, creating a combined entity with an anticipated annual recurring revenue (ARR) nearing $600 million, signaling a strategic shift towards consolidation in the data infrastructure market. This merger reflects...

By Tomasz Tunguz
Is Token Consumption Growth Slowing Down?
BlogOct 10, 2025

Is Token Consumption Growth Slowing Down?

Philip Schmid dropped an astounding figure1 yesterday about Google’s AI scale : 1,300 trillion tokens per month (1.3 quadrillion - first time I’ve ever used that unit!). Now that we have three data points on Google’s token processing, we can chart...

By Tomasz Tunguz