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I think about this study frequently (quoting from my report on "GenAI & Productivity" https://t.co/kEx5Z4BJH7): In results released in July, non-profit Model Evaluation & Threat Research (METR) had a troubling finding. Sixteen experienced developers participated in the study. They were assigned 246 coding tasks and asked to forecast time to completion for each task. The tasks were then randomly assigned to allow or disallow AI tool usage. METR’s finding: “After completing the study, developers estimate that allowing AI reduced completion time by 20%. Surprisingly, we find that allowing AI actually increased completion time by 19%—AI tooling slowed developers down.” While other methodologies undoubtedly result in contradictory conclusions, I've heard enough anecdotes and have had enough personal experience to recognize the relevance. This quote from a developer rings true to me often as I leverage AI for financial research (albeit, dependent on the use case): "The reality is that AI is like having a very eager junior developer on your team. They can write code quickly, but they need constant supervision."
The Economist: "As private-credit funds’ woes intensify, they will raise the cost of borrowing for firms across the economy, at a time when the Iran war is weighing on companies’ margins. The cost of debt in public markets has already...
Given reports this week that Pete Hegseth tried to buy defense stocks prior to launching the Iran war, much attention has been paid to the failure of that trade. The index he attempted to buy, IDEF, has fallen ~13% over...
As much attention is now being paid to Iran's drone capabilities, I still think it's lost on most market participants the broader implications of that capability. It's something I dissect in depth in my new report on "Defense Innovation" (https://t.co/rRtYxEUTE9)....
The chart below is one of the most striking I came across researching my new report on "Defense Innovation" (https://t.co/rRtYxEUTE9). It illustrates the deep dependence of current US air-launched armament supply chains on China. In a world increasingly defined by...
I'm proud to launch Sage Road's sixth report, which focuses on "Defense Innovation" (read the Executive Summary here: https://t.co/rRtYxEUTE9). Accelerating global defense spending is poised to run headlong into accelerating innovation with market participants underestimating the breadth of implications to...
Callum Borchers, WSJ: "'It’s a wonderful way of looking like a genius when job cuts are something you might have to do for other operational reasons,” Peter Bell says. “It’s great smoke cover if you just need to goose your...
Lloyd Blankfein to Bloomberg about "fire" risk in private markets: "At some point there needs to be a forcing function or a reckoning that causes you to come to grips with what your balance sheet really is worth...The analogy I...
WSJ: "There are about 430,000 U.S. households worth $30 million or more, according to an analysis of Federal Reserve data by Zidar. Within that, there are about 74,000 worth $100 million or more. Over the past few decades, the growth...
"Around 27% of respondents said they were most anxious about mistakes made by AI, known as hallucinations, followed by 22% concerned about job displacement and the impact on human autonomy. About 16% of users were worried about the technology’s impact...
"AI and machine learning have helped prop up venture capital as funding for other sectors cooled. AI accounted for 52% of global VC deal value in Q4 2025." As I research and write my report on "Defense Innovation", I'm struck by...
Apollo's John Zito on private equity: "I literally think all the marks are wrong...This next cycle is going to be a big moment in time for the private markets because people are way smarter than I think private-market participants, particularly...
Multiple headlines today about the parallels between now and the run-up to the GFC. From Bloomberg: "BofA’s Hartnett Warns Markets Starting to Look Like 2008." From the FT: "Should investors worry about a 2008-style shock?" The key concern: oil prices...
As I research and write my upcoming report on "Defense Innovation", global debt levels have been top of mind. Total global debt surged by $28.8 trillion last year, hitting a record $348 trillion. It was the biggest rise in the...
WSJ: "One of the great hopes for AI—at least, among workers—is that it will ease workloads, freeing people up for more high-level, creative pursuits. So far, the opposite is happening, new data show...AI is increasing the speed, density and complexity...
