Bank Indonesia Set to Raise Rates Amid Rising Global Yields
Bank Indonesia to hike next week. IDR will need help with global rise in yields.
Rising US 30‑yr Yield Forces EMs to Boost Risk Premiums
Good morning, US Treasury 30-yr yield is now 5.06%. That's globally consequential, especially on the back of JGB yields rising too. Now, if you are an EM that has a current account deficit and need capital account surplus to offset, you should...
Import Bans Would Push Gold Prices Higher
If gold imports are banned, prices would go up no? Supply lower and demand still high? Indian gold price always higher than in Hong Kong for example because demand is higher and due to import duties.
Indians Buy Gold to Hedge Inflation and Rupee Decline
Gold imports = gold purchases at lower price = higher asset value as gold has appreciated. Indians buy gold because it's a real asset and a good hedge against inflation or depreciation of rupee vs USD and vs gold.
Low Transit Fares Aid Poorer, Avoid Gas Subsidy Pitfalls
Actually, I think keeping public transport prices low is a good policy because it helps the mass that needs it and not as costly as keeping gasoline prices low. With gasoline prices low, it keeps the volume demand the same if...
Higher Energy Prices Naturally Balance Supply and Demand
But they are already doing that by pushing for demand destruction. By telling people to work from home, reduce mobility, refiners to not buy so much oil or spend foreign exchange, or refiners not able to pass on higher input...
Tech Exports Fuel K‑Shaped Divergence Across Asia
A thread storm of Asia K-Shaped Divergence in Asia. In January, we published a note called EM Asia K-Shaped Recovery: Tech Exports to Lead Regional Economic Divergence in 2026, with India Lagging Even before the war, tech was driving divergence in performance...
China's PPI Surge Boosts FX, Not Equities
Good morning, China PPI rose to 2.8%YoY in April from 0.5% but CPI increased by much less at 1.2% vs 1.1% previously. Chinese equities have underperformed Japan, Taiwan, South Korea because of margin compression, subdued domestic demand, and thus less ability...
Iran's 3‑D Chess Backfires
Iran 3-D chess: seize a tanker, but the tanker carries Iranian’s oil, which violates Iranian national interest.
Buy Australia, Malaysia FX; Avoid Other Asian Currencies
Btw, the Iran War trade is SELL the FX that loses from the war and BUY the FX that does better. In Asia, Australia and Malaysia sit more pretty on that chart. Meanwhile, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and South Korea...
Philippines Inflation Spikes to 7.2%, Widening Asian Divergence
The Philippines April inflation rose sharply to 7.2%YoY on rice and fuel price hikes. We had predicted that this would be the most vulnerable country in Asia due to its deficits of energy and food. We expect further hikes for...
South Korea, Taiwan Surge as SE Asia Slows
Good morning, It's day 66 and Iran War and AI Widen the Wedge Between Winners and Losers in Asia. This morning, we got South Korea and Taiwan exceptionalism with their manufacturing activity rising rapidly to 53.6 and 55.3, respectively. Malaysia PMI also...
Ceasefire Holds, Yet Energy Flows Remain Stalled
Good morning Asia, It's Day 56 and the ceasefire is on, but oil and gas (as well as aluminum, helium, sulfur etc) are still not flowing. Crude oil is up now to 105/barrel and markets end the week with trepidation. Asia...
Unused $2 Bn Bataan Nuclear Plant Still Haunts Philippines
Pictures of Bataan Nuclear Plant in the Philippines. Spent USD2bn and never turned it on. Yes, never. They are still paying the foreign debt on this now. This plant doesn't look too different from the one I visited in Shenzhen...
Asian Markets Span Both Worst and Best Equity Indices
Did you know that the top two WORST equity indices globally are Asian ones and the top two BEST EQUITY indices are also Asian ones? When we talk about EM or Asia resilience, we are lumping VERY diverse performance into a...