Chip‑rich Economies Outpace Others Amid Iran War Shock
Good morning, We are Day 55 of the Iran War and divergence is widening. Negative energy supply shocks are being felt across the region but those with more buffers and chips do better. Memory chip prices are skyrocketing with chip-heavy indices and economy gaining, offsetting Iran War growth drag. Korea Q1 GDP accelerated to 3.6%YoY from 1.6% in Q4 and QoQ SA it rose 1.7%. The AI super cycle demand is behind this K-shaped recovery of Korea where chips vs non-chips divergence. Across Asia, if you don't have chips, your Iran War pain will be much higher than those that do as import costs rise but exports are not offsetting. Meanwhile, investors take note and the capital side of the equation remains lackluster if not outright negative. So here we are, divergence in performance before the war and even more so after.
Canada Seizes Crisis to Diversify Asian Crude Supply
Canada is working hard to sell oil in Asia because every crisis is an opportunity. Asian refineries will likely emerge from this crisis to deploy capex to refine multiple types of crude & not just the Middle East variety.
Geography Drives Oil Price Gaps, Splits Asset Returns
Oil: The have and have not. What's the price of crude in North America? Very cheap, as low as 72.7. What's the price in Sri Lanka, well, very expensive. Gas is the same story. So the oil market and pricing...
US Blockade Pressures All, Targets Iran Most
Exactly. And this is why this US blockade is genius because it means it won't be just the Iranians that will benefit when it's partially open. The pressure cooker is on for everyone equally, especially Iran.
Renewables Reach 26.4% of India's Power Mix
India electricity generation from renewable sources are rising to now 26.4% of total, so that's an offsetting factor for the crisis. https://t.co/RYXSV06IgV
Never Share Passwords in DMs—Verify Sender First
Twitter or X is fun but just for house keeping and safety rules, never put your password into something other than to log into the platform you need to access. Any DM message that asks you to input password, even if...
No Viable Alternative: $2 Trillion
There is no alternative (TINA). Or put it another way, where would you hide USD2trn? Not in HSI...
Treasury Direct: The Only Safe Bet (TINA)
There is no alternative (TINA) for US Treasury. I am personally an investor via treasury direct :-)
China's Q1 GDP Masks Weak Consumer and Investment Demand
China Q1 2026 real GDP is STRONG at 5%, but details show that consumption and investment are very weak. Nominal retail sales are soft at 1.7% for March and for the quarter it's only growing 2.4% nominally, which means REAL RETAIL...
China’s Outperformance Driven by Excess Liquidity Recycling
China’s outperformance is symptomatic of its liquidity glut, said @Trinhnomics , a senior economist covering emerging Asia at Natixis in Hong Kong. “That excess liquidity is being recycled into high-quality Chinese credit.” https://t.co/3rIShLlAgS
AI Hardware Fuels Asian Market Outperformance Despite Iran War
Which is a bigger impact on financial markets and companies' earnings: AI or Iran War? Well, the Kospi and Taiwan are still best in Asia and also world in equity performance. Why? They are the hardware of AI, as in chip...
Export‑heavy KOSPI Climbs as Domestic Economy Stalls
South Korean Kospi is up 22% in April and that's not because the economy is not affected by the Iran War but more due to the composition of the stock market. The adage of the economy is not the stock market...
Rising Chinese Imports Squeeze Margins, Price Hikes Looming
China imports rose +23%YoY for Q1 2026 and March rose 28%YoY. Meanwhile, exports slowed to 2.5%YoY. In other words, Asia terms of trade is deteriorating and even is supposedly immune but you can see from PPI and now imports that costs...
SPX Dismisses War Impact; Philippines Faces Demand Destruction
"What war?" says SPX. Same as before the war. Meanwhile, the Philippines is going through demand destruction and it is not alone. https://t.co/quzOcc6Ujl
Philippines Identified as Asia's Most Vulnerable Equity Market
The worst equity market in Asia: The Philippines. We identified this in Day 1 of the war and that the Philippines would be most vulnerable. https://t.co/vSODxPjtJE
Singapore Emerges Asia’s Strongest Market Amid Tightening Policy
US equities now above level before the war. What's the strongest financial market in Asia? Singapore. The MAS also tightened today. Why? Well, GDP is resilient even if slowing and inflationary pressures rising. While Singapore is losing via terms of trade, it's...
US Crude Exports Rise to 5 Mbpd, Still 8 Mbpd Short
What about the US adding to exports? It rose to 5m/barrels day from 4 last year and 3m/barrel in 2022. Obvs seems we are still short 8m/barrel a day... https://t.co/SkCnXO0dU9
Weak Chinese Economy Fuels Outward Credit Hunt
There are a lot of stories about Chinese assets acting like havens, especially China IG credit outperforming. How do you square that with a very weak economy? Well, the reason China IG credit is outperforming is because of the weak economy....
Rising Producer Prices Meet Subdued CPI, Squeezing Margins
Good morning, We got PPIs in Japan and China and both are rising. That said, CPI remains subdued thanks to subsidies and weak demand. In other words, we got margin compression as producers are not passing on costs, just yet.
War Exposes Oil‑driven Plastic Addiction, Urging Weaning
One of the silver lining of this war is that people are realizing how oil dependent we are, not just via transportation but in daily lives. Plastic, light, durable and cheap have been a plague to Asia's water ways, is...
Ceasefire Sparks Asian Rally; Vietnam Gains EM Upgrade
Good morning, I woke up to the best news ever - we got a two-week ceasefire that has lit Asian and risks assets that have been languishing on the closure of the Strait. The Korean won is rallying the hardest, followed...
Asia's Energy Shock: War Disrupts Middle Eastern Supply
Good morning, We are in Day 26 of the war and Asia is reeling from the conflict as we are most dependent on Middle oil and gas. Let's talk about how Asia is affected by this conflict, a thread. You can...
Investors Swap Gold for Oil Amid Conflict
Good morning Asia, We are at the stage of the conflict where people are selling their gold (most valuable hard asset and a hedge for bad times) to buy oil. Got oil, gas, and may I say coal? https://t.co/fsqt6mevX1
China Leads
Sorry it should be Pakistan, India, Singapore, Taiwan, China, Thailand, South Korea and Japan. By volume, China imports the most from Qatar but share of total is also very high so rather exposed.
Asia Faces Energy Shock as Gas Supplies Tighten
Good morning Asia, Brent rising but also watch products as we consume products not crude. For Asia, Qatari gas is very key & for some like Pakistan, that is 100% of supply. For others, still a big challenge, such as India. Even...
Demand Collapse Shifts Crisis From Inflation to Growth Shock
Demand destruction started in Asia and spreading to Egypt. The only way this equation will square when supply is short is for demand to fall. Prices higher & demand falling means growth will be a challenge. The crisis will move from...
Export Bans Threaten Philippines' Fuel and Food Security
Products matter as we don’t consume crude but the by products. The Philippines is vulnerable to export bans of not just diesel and gas but also eventually food should the conflict endures.
India and South Korea Uniquely Handle Heavy and Sour Crude
The issue with Asia and the Middle East is that our refineries are built to refine sour crude. But not all refineries are created equal. India and South Korea stand out in having refineries that can do both heavy and...
Thai Baht Slumps: Highest Energy Trade Deficit in Asia
THB has weakened the most in Asia since the Iran War & the reason being is that it has the highest deficit of energy trade in Asia as a share of GDP. Korean won is second.
Indonesia Poised to Lift Fuel Prices Amid Ongoing Conflict
If the conflict lasts, Indonesia will raise fuel prices, which is what it did by end 2022 as the subsidy rose by 30bn…
Hormuz Closure Disrupts Global Energy, Food, Metal Supplies
Good morning from Hong Kong. Day 13 of the Iran War. Hormuz effectively closed, impacting not just global energy supply chain but also food and metals. https://t.co/yXfDXHwzMN
Natixis
Good morning (still in Hanoi), @NatixisResearch @natixis published our Global Cross-Expertise overnight & please take a read for our views on: Oil & gas Metals & Precious Metals Macro Impact (Asia, Middle East, Europe, US & LatAm) Financial Market Impact (equities, rates, FX).
Supply Shock Forces Demand Destruction, Remote Work Encouraged
Hello from Hanoi where the energy and supply shock from the war is hitting it here. The government wants people to use less fuel for transport by working from home. When there’s a supply shock & u can’t increase it...
Hanoi’s Bun Cha: Delicious Street Food for $1.5
Hello from Hanoi. Just walked down an alley to get some bun cha for a late lunch. Was delicious and USD1.5. https://t.co/jsdiiaW7Ak
Bangladesh Shuts Universities to Curb Energy Demand Amid Crisis
Demand destruction as we speak, starting with Bangladesh. Thailand and China curbed exports of diesel and gas. Vietnam will do so next.
Asia Faces Deep Shock as Energy Prices Surge
We discussed on the impact of the crisis on Asia and it is a big negative shock for the region as we are very oil and gas dependent & we are importers of that from the Middle East. Price higher =...
Oil Powers Everything, Not Just Energy—Even Vegan Shoes
We live in an oil & gas & coal planet. Asian countries depend on this, despite expanding renewables and nuclear in recent decade. And guess what? It isn’t just an energy input but also an important component of everything you...
Hormuz Closure Triggers Sulfur Shortage, Sparks Demand Destruction
Negative supply shock will lead to price increases & the only way to correct that if supply doesn’t rise is, well, demand destruction. We are headed towards demand destruction if the conflict doesn’t end by Day 14. Today is Day 10....
India’s Fertilizer Reliance Highlights Asia’s Supply Vulnerability
Asia supply of oil, gas & fertiliser is rather concentrated. We are seeing a massive supply shock to the most important input of modern life: food and transport.
Geopolitical Tensions Trigger Oil Supply Shock, Duration Uncertain
I’m on Bloomberg TV tomorrow at 1pm HKT with the wonderful @JoumannaTV on China, India, Southeast Asia, South Korea, and what the widening conflict in Iran and the Middle East means for the region. Short story - we are buyers...
Asia Faces Modest Growth, Rising Defense, Soaring Energy Costs
On @CNBC in an hour to discuss Asia (China and India). China growth target is soft but same as many expected which is 4.5% to 5%. Defence spending rises officially +7% but many say real spending increase higher. The headlines are really about...
Higher Gas Prices Benefit Malaysia, Counter Oil Deficit
Malaysia should not be one of the weakest links here. It exports gas so higher prices is good for Malaysia, offsetting deficit of oil…
Thailand, South Korea Lead Asia’s Oil‑Shock Market Turmoil
In Asia, Thailand and South Korea have the highest GDP exposure to imported oil & so the violence today in Korea and Thai markets reflects fear how that will play out. Note that this is negative for Asia in general but...