War on the Rocks

A Proxy Without a Purpose: Hizballah and the Iran Crisis

The United States and Israel’s escalating attacks on Iran have revived questions about Hezbollah’s strategic value as Tehran’s premier proxy. After a costly 2024 war with Israel, Hezbollah’s long‑range strike capability and leadership have been severely degraded, while the Lebanese army, backed by U.S. assistance, is intensifying disarmament pressure. Iran is unlikely to order a large‑scale Hezbollah escalation because doing so would expose the militia to further Israeli retaliation and offer little leverage in a potential U.S. campaign against Tehran. Consequently, Hezbollah faces limited options, ranging from cautious irritation of Israel to possible redeployment to Iraq or a gradual drift toward a criminalized, locally‑focused organization.