How Japan Could Co-Produce the Navy’s Future Fleet
The U.S. Navy’s shrinking defense industrial base—hampered by labor shortages, supply‑chain fragility, and erratic demand—is pushing Washington to consider allied coproduction of future platforms. Japan emerges as a prime partner because its modern shipyards, smart‑factory robotics, and existing joint programs (e.g., Patriot PAC‑3, Mk‑41 VLS) can scale autonomous drone and undersea‑vehicle production near the First Island Chain. Policy hurdles, export‑control revisions, and regional sensitivities, especially concerning China, complicate deeper collaboration. Nonetheless, recent AUKUS undersea‑drone agreements illustrate a viable model for expanding U.S.–Japan joint manufacturing to meet the Navy’s attritable‑system needs.
South Korea Could Build Nuclear Submarines, But It Shouldn’t
In May 2026 South Korea’s defense minister unveiled a roadmap to acquire nuclear‑powered submarines, targeting an initial fleet of four vessels with service entry more than a decade away. The plan is framed as a prestige project to boost the...
The Gulf Arab States Need a Shield Built for Limited Trust
The Gulf Cooperation Council’s defense institutions have been built over decades, yet operational integration remains fragmented. Recent crises in the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, and the 2025 Doha missile attack highlighted how national‑centric decision‑making creates dangerous latency. The...
Wargaming for Improved Acquisition: What Does It Take?
A recent push advocates using wargaming to overhaul Defense acquisition, linking policy, law, and budgets to operational outcomes. The author argues that a distributed, service‑level wargaming framework—standardized and integrated into a joint strategic series—will generate granular data on industrial base...
The Chain of Peace: Do Supply Chain Chokepoints Deter War?
The blog argues that the global semiconductor supply chain—particularly the monopoly held by Dutch firm ASML on extreme ultraviolet lithography machines—acts as a powerful deterrent against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. This "silicon testudo" relies on multiple non‑substitutable chokepoints, from...
The Maritime Action Plan Needs a Yardstick: Enter the Mahan Ratio
The Trump administration’s Maritime Action Plan aims to revive U.S. commercial shipping and shipbuilding, but it lacks a clear target for the size of the merchant fleet needed to support the Navy. The author proposes the Mahan ratio—merchant vessels divided...
How Can Lebanon’s Partners Help Strengthen the Lebanese Armed Forces?
The United States has been mediating talks between Israel and Lebanon amid renewed fighting, but Hezbollah rejected a cease‑fire and Lebanese security forces have suffered casualties. In 2025 the Lebanese government announced a plan for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF)...
From Pyongyang to Primorsk: When Sanctions Evasion Becomes System Design
The article explains how Russia has expanded a maritime shadow fleet by adopting and scaling the sanctions‑evasion tactics first perfected by North Korea. By early 2025 Russia operated over 1,000 vessels, including 600 tankers, that hide their Russian links through...
The Lawmakers Fighting to Modernize the Pentagon
Republicans Rob Wittman and Democrat Pat Ryan launched the bipartisan House Defense Modernization Caucus in 2024 to accelerate Pentagon reforms. The caucus has pushed through key provisions in two consecutive National Defense Authorization Acts, aiming to streamline acquisitions and cut...
The Pentagon’s AI Edge Is Being Distilled Away
The Pentagon’s AI‑first strategy hinges on commercial frontier models from firms such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, but Chinese adversaries are eroding that advantage through model distillation. Distillation copies a powerful “teacher” model’s behavior at a fraction of the original...
Is Time on China’s Side? Beijing’s Taiwan Calculus and the Balance of Power
The War on the Rocks podcast episode examines how Beijing’s perception of a shifting balance of power shapes its Taiwan strategy. Chinese leaders view rising regional strength as a reason to exercise patience, while fearing a future decline could trigger...
Between Beijing and the Budget: The Domestic Realities of Taiwan’s Defense Spending Drama
On May 8, Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan broke a six‑month stalemate by approving a $25 billion defense budget, a compromise that shaved $15 billion off President Lai’s original $40 billion proposal. The cut ties funding tightly to U.S. hardware, sidelining domestic R&D, and reflects a...
The Toll Booth at the Throat of World Trade
In May 2026 Iran formalized a sovereign toll regime for the Strait of Hormuz, creating the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to issue transit permits and charge up to $2 million per voyage. The fees are payable in Bitcoin, dollar‑pegged stablecoins, or...
Fences Not F-35s: Drone Attacks and the Illogic of Gulf Procurement
The Iran‑2026 war has exposed a critical depletion crisis in Gulf air‑defense, as thousands of costly Patriot and THAAD interceptors are being expended to shoot down cheap Iranian Shahed drones. Each engagement can cost $4‑13 million, while a German Gepard 35 mm...
Contriving Imaginary Gaps in Nuclear Deterrence
Jay Tilden argues that the so‑called nuclear deterrence gap – the idea that the United States lacks theater‑range, low‑yield weapons compared with Russia and China – is largely a self‑generated myth. He traces the narrative to historic “missile‑gap” rhetoric and...