Silent Killers, Not Signals: Why States Use Poison in Assassinations
The death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny in 2024 was traced to the rare frog toxin epibatidine, reviving scrutiny of state‑sponsored poison assassinations. Recent analyses show that poisons are chosen for covert lethality and deniability, not theatrical signaling, a pattern echoed in the Skripal, Litvinenko and apartheid South African cases. Since 1946, at least 16 governments have documented over 100 poison‑based killings, highlighting a global, not solely Russian, practice. Weak diplomatic reactions risk normalizing chemical tools for targeted political murder.
The Demise of Strategic Planning in Israel
The article argues that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition has systematically dismantled Israel’s strategic planning apparatus, replacing professional analysis with a loyalist echo chamber. By appointing political allies to key security posts and sidelining independent bodies, the government has limited...
Hungary Turns a New Page
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán conceded defeat on April 12, ending 16 years of rule after his Fidesz party lost its parliamentary majority. The centre‑right Tisza party, led by Peter Magyar, is projected to hold a two‑thirds supermajority and has...
The Bromine Chokepoint: How Strife in the Middle East Could Halt Production of the World’s Memory Chips
The global memory‑chip supply chain hinges on bromine, a specialty chemical sourced almost entirely from Israel. South Korea imports 97.5% of its bromine, which is converted into semiconductor‑grade hydrogen bromide (HBr) gas used to etch DRAM and NAND flash chips....
Strategy Without Hubris: How China Rose by Managing America’s Reaction
Oriana Skylar Mastro’s book *Upstart* argues that China’s rise was driven by a calibrated strategy that managed U.S. reactions rather than overt confrontation. Beijing alternated between emulating, exploiting, and entrepreneurial moves—joining WTO, expanding UN peacekeeping, and launching the AIIB—to gain...
Bankova, Budapest, and Bunnies
Ukraine’s expanding drone and missile campaign is exposing a severe shortfall in Russia’s air‑defense missile stockpiles, especially beyond the heavily protected Moscow region. Sources say interceptor systems are concentrated around the capital, leaving areas such as Crimea vulnerable to increasingly...
Can a New Bridge Finally Save the Pentagon’s Best Ideas?
The article proposes an "innovation insertion increment" for DoD portfolio acquisition executives, earmarking flexible capital to transition proven commercial prototypes into operational capability. It cites historic breakthroughs—Rickover’s nuclear submarine reactor, SpaceX’s reusable booster, and SpektreWorks’ low‑cost combat drone—as examples of...
Regime Change in Iran, Underpants Gnomes, and the Phase II Problem
President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched the Iran conflict with explicit calls for regime change, urging Iranians to overthrow the Islamic Republic. A month‑long ceasefire has paused hostilities, but the original objective remains unfulfilled as the war’s...
The Future Soldier Loadout: Smarter Gear or Dead Weight?
The next generation of U.S. infantry will be equipped with tightly integrated human‑machine systems that blur the line between soldier and technology. Wearable sensors, augmented‑reality helmets, and powered exoskeletons aim to boost situational awareness, endurance, and survivability. However, weight, power...
Disperse to Survive: The Logic of French Forward Deterrence
French President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a new "forward deterrence" doctrine that would temporarily disperse France’s nuclear‑capable Rafale B/F3‑R fighters to allied European bases. The plan stresses strategic‑only use of nuclear weapons and aims to boost survivability of the airborne leg...
Iran’s Other Front: The War Over the Internet
Iran imposed a near‑total internet blackout after the Feb. 28 strikes, cutting 98% of traffic and leaving 90 million citizens offline. Volunteer proxy networks such as Psiphon’s Conduit and Tor’s Snowflake surged, reaching 9.6 million daily Iranian users and 5 million connections on Feb. 27....
Update From the Battlefield: Drones, Distance, and Diminishing Returns for Russia
Michael Kofman and Ryan Evans assess the Russo‑Ukrainian war’s evolving dynamics, highlighting how pervasive drone warfare has turned the front into a sprawling, dispersed kill zone. Russian infiltration tactics are yielding diminishing returns, failing to secure lasting territorial gains. Ukraine is...
What Is Strategic Rivalry? Why Should We Care?
The article distinguishes strategic rivalry from strategic competition, noting that rivalries involve repeated, high‑stakes conflicts that account for roughly 80 percent of wars. It identifies China, Russia and Iran as the United States’ current strategic rivals, each employing gray‑zone tactics or...
Iran’s Asymmetric Counterair Campaign: Attacking the U.S. Air Force’s Nests and Eggs
Iran has launched an asymmetric counter‑air campaign using drones and ballistic missiles, striking U.S. assets across the Gulf. In late March it destroyed an E‑3 AWACS and damaged multiple KC‑135 tankers at Prince Sultan Air Base, following earlier attacks on...
How NATO’s Air Defense Future Is Unfolding
In a 2024 piece, Shaan Shaikh outlined three possible paths for NATO’s air and missile defense: a NATO‑led approach, a European‑led common procurement strategy, and maintaining the current federated model. Two years later, the European‑led vision is materialising fastest, driven...
How This Precision Weapon Reengineered Modern War
Jeffrey E. Stern’s new book, *The Warhead*, spotlights the Paveway laser‑guided bomb, a modest yet transformative precision weapon that reshaped how the United States conducts air power. By offering inexpensive, accurate strikes, Paveway let policymakers intervene with reduced political risk...
The Campaign Ends at the Breach: Lessons From Ukraine on Why Armies Fail
The 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive stalled when engineers failed to open a lane at the Novodarivka breach, halting the broader campaign despite ample ammunition and fuel. Historical cases such as the Remagen bridge and Operation Market Garden reinforce that a successful...
The Iran War’s Widening Impacts in the Middle East and North Africa
Recent hostilities between Iran and Israel have spilled across the Middle East and North Africa, prompting direct attacks on Gulf states, Iraq, Jordan, and a ground invasion in southern Lebanon. Experts highlight how the conflict reshapes dynamics in Yemen, where...
The Hidden System Turning Chinese Tech Companies Into Military Suppliers
Chinese robot maker Unitree, which controls over 60% of the global quadruped market, has been quietly integrated into China’s military‑civil fusion system despite an earlier anti‑weaponization pledge. State designations, tax breaks and university procurement channels have funneled its affordable robot...
Closing the Air and Missile Defense Gap in the Indo-Pacific
The United States burned through roughly 100‑150 upper‑tier missile interceptors during the 12‑day Iran‑Israel conflict, depleting about a quarter of its global stockpile. Modeling by the Stimson Center warns that, in a Pacific clash with China, U.S. Patriot and terminal‑phase...
Iran’s Anti-Access and Area Denial Strategy Is Cruder Than China’s But Still Dangerous
Iran has built a three‑layer anti‑access/area‑denial (A2/AD) architecture that mirrors China’s concept but is tailored to its limited resources. The system spans forward‑basing infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el‑Mandeb chokepoints, and the Persian Gulf itself, relying on a large...
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz & Saving Downed Pilots
Retired admirals Jamie Foggo and John “Fozzie” Miller discussed how Iran has effectively throttled the Strait of Hormuz and what it would take to restore freedom of navigation. Their analysis covered threats such as mines, drones, missiles, and the potential...
Are Perceptions the Reality?
Ukrainian analyst Tetiana Chornovol argues that multi‑story concrete high‑rise buildings have become the most vital asset in modern drone warfare, providing durable shelters and operational bases. She contends that forests, trenches, and private homes are easily detected and destroyed, making...
The Age of Unlearning: How Democracies Lost Their Grip on Strategic Time
The United States has been steadily dismantling long‑term strategic institutions, from the temporary elimination of the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment to steep cuts at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency....
Sharpening Signals and Reducing Noise for Better Defense Budgets
The article argues that the U.S. defense budget must serve as a clear, coherent signal to industry, integrating economic statecraft to preserve America’s competitive edge. Defense spending accounts for roughly 47% of discretionary federal funds, about $310 billion annually, making it...
From Filament to Firepower: 3D Printing’s Impact on Warfare
Additive manufacturing is reshaping small‑arms warfare by allowing non‑state actors to produce functional firearms and ammunition locally. Open‑source designs and affordable printers have turned 3D‑printed guns from novelty items into reliable, magazine‑fed weapons used in conflicts such as Myanmar’s civil...
From Theory to Reality: Evaluating the U.S.-Ukrainian Minerals Deal
The United States and Ukraine have launched a U.S.–Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, injecting an initial $150 million to develop Ukraine’s critical mineral assets. The fund is governed by a six‑member board—three Americans and three Ukrainians—aiming to channel private and public capital...
The Folly of Seizing Kharg Island
President Donald Trump is weighing a bold move to seize Iran’s Kharg Island, the hub for roughly 90% of Tehran’s oil exports, as leverage to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The United States already has over 50,000...
China’s AI Is Spreading Fast. Here’s How to Stop the Security Risks
Chinese open‑weight AI models surged from 1% to 30% of global workloads between late 2024 and 2025, with Alibaba’s Qwen family alone reaching over 700 million downloads. These models are freely available, but their developers are bound by China’s National Intelligence...
The Most Important Deterrent That NATO Needs Is Creativity
NATO’s 2025 Rapid Adoption Action Plan mandates fielding new military technology within 24 months, shifting focus from procurement speed to human adaptability. The authors argue that creativity, taught through programs like Project Mercury, is the decisive deterrent against adversaries. Real‑world trials...
The Arsenal as the Battlefield: The War on Iran and the Return of Counter-Industrial Targeting
The United States’ Operation Epic Fury has moved beyond striking Iranian combat units to systematically destroy Iran’s missile and drone manufacturing facilities, aiming to cripple its ability to replenish weapons. This counter‑industrial approach revives a World‑II‑style strategy in a modern context, reflecting...
The U.S. Military Risks Letting Contractors Define How It Sees the Battlefield
The U.S. military’s integrated command platforms now rely on proprietary ontologies—vendor‑owned definitions of threat, readiness, and escalation—rather than government‑controlled standards. While modular open‑systems policies ensure technical interoperability, they leave the semantic layer unchecked, allowing contractors to reshape how the battlefield...
The Cost of Hesitation: Why “Finishing the Mission” Is Imperative in Iran
U.S. forces are conducting Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion to dismantle Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, after intelligence revealed roughly 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60 percent—near weapons‑grade. Representative Sheri Biggs argues that sanctions such as the 2025 Solidify and Enhanced Iran Sanctions Acts...
Successes and Setbacks
Russian military leaders are publicly acknowledging that their forces are losing momentum and suffering mounting casualties in the Ukraine conflict. Commander Oleksandr Khodakovsky warned that Russia’s traditional strengths—sheer weapon stockpiles, industrial capacity, and manpower—are no longer guaranteeing superiority. The article...
Every Soldier a Software Builder: Governing the Army’s New Digital Workforce
The Army is turning its soldiers into software builders by leveraging accredited digital platforms such as Army Vantage and GenAI.mil, allowing rapid creation of mission‑critical tools without new cybersecurity approvals. To prevent duplication and abandoned projects, the author proposes a...
The Pentagon Wants Dual-Use Innovation. Patent Law Might Punish It.
The Delaware federal court rejected Moderna’s claim that Section 1498 immunity shielded its COVID‑19 vaccine sales, holding that the statute only protects products that directly benefit the government. The ruling coincides with a $2.25 billion settlement between Moderna and Arbutus, including a...
Hellscape Taiwan: A Porcupine Defense in the Drone Age
The Center for a New American Security proposes a "Hellscape" defense that layers cheap, autonomous drones and unmanned systems to stop a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan. The concept expands the traditional "porcupine" strategy into four zones—from mid‑Strait saturation attacks...
A Torpedo in the Trade Lanes: Naval Warfare Returns to the Indo-Pacific
A U.S. Navy Virginia‑class submarine fired a Mark 48 heavyweight torpedo that sank the Iranian Moudge‑class frigate IRIS Dena about 40 nautical miles south of Sri Lanka on March 4. The strike killed at least 87 crew members, left 61 missing and rescued...
How Are Iran’s Partnerships with Belarus and Russia Holding Up During War?
Russia’s reliance on Iranian‑designed drones has grown, while Belarus has become a pivotal production hub. The two allies announced a joint facility capable of churning out up to 100,000 drones per year and have already stepped up component manufacturing for...
Your Defense Code Is Already AI-Generated. Now What?
AI‑assisted coding tools now write a substantial share of software used in defense procurement, with estimates that 20‑30% of code in major repositories originates from AI. The lack of provenance tracking makes it impossible for governments to enforce bans on...
Five Wargames Every Force Design Process Needs
In 2019 Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger mandated a force‑planning push that placed wargaming at its core, executing more than 20 major games to shape Force Design 2030. The effort highlighted a gap: the Department of Defense lacks a...
Proxy Pressure on Iran: The Promise and Pitfalls of Arming the Kurds
The Trump administration, backed by Israel, explored arming Kurdish fighters in Iraq to open a second front against Iran. Proponents argued that Kurdish experience against ISIS and their border networks could pressure Tehran with minimal U.S. troop commitment. However, a...
Follow the Money: Finance and the Future of Allied Economic Statecraft
Finance is emerging as the core instrument of modern economic statecraft, linking public priorities with private capital to shape critical sectors such as defense, infrastructure, manufacturing, and AI. The generative‑AI boom highlights how massive, capital‑intensive projects—like a one‑gigawatt data center...
Why Did the United States Lift Sanctions on Assad’s Chemical Weapons Scientists?
The Trump administration’s June 2025 sanctions overhaul removed 266 employees of Syria’s Scientific Studies and Research Center from the U.S. Specially Designated Nationals list. These scientists had been targeted in 2017 after the Khan Sheikhoun sarin attack and were central to the...
Countering Drones and the Pace of Modern War
The episode "Countering Drones and the Pace of Modern War" brings together leaders from AeroVironment, Epirus and Hidden Level to discuss how proliferating unmanned aerial systems are reshaping battlefield tactics. Their companies showcase a spectrum of counter‑drone tools, from RF...
Islamic State Containment Is Collapsing in Syria
Less than a month after lifting Caesar Act sanctions, Syrian president Ahmad al Sharaa launched a rapid offensive that drove the Kurdish‑led Syrian Democratic Forces from roughly 80% of their northeast holdings. The assault triggered Arab tribal defections and forced the...
Syria and the Islamic State: Analyzing America’s Departure
Thanassis Cambanis revisits his 2024 call for a U.S. pullout from Syria, noting that the recent American withdrawal has sparked chaos and a power vacuum. The Syrian regime swiftly reclaimed the Kurdish‑held enclave, while the fate of high‑risk Islamic State...
Military Operational Thinking in an Age of Artificial Intelligence
The article examines how artificial intelligence is reshaping military operational art, highlighting a growing tension between traditional analytical frameworks and judgment‑based thinking. It identifies three historic traditions—Anglo‑American center‑of‑gravity, German Auftragstaktik, and Soviet deep‑battle—and shows how AI naturally aligns with the...
Double-Edged Swords: How Military Purges Shape Authoritarian Appetite for War
China’s defense ministry announced the investigation of top general Zhang Youxia, marking the latest in a wave that has seen Xi Jinping remove five of six Central Military Commission generals since 2022. The article argues that military purges create a...
Bailing Out Russia for “Peace” Is a Losing Proposition
In February 2026 Russia unveiled the “Dmitriev package,” a $14 trillion economic reintegration proposal that promises sanctions relief, Western market access and joint energy ventures. The article argues the plan is unrealistic and overlooks Russia’s war‑driven economy, where defense and security...