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War on the Rocks

War on the Rocks

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Independent publication on strategy, defense and geopolitics with macro/markets implications (energy, security, great‑power competition).

BONUS In Brief: Vibes Out of Munich
Blog•Feb 19, 2026

BONUS In Brief: Vibes Out of Munich

The episode dissects the 62nd Munich Security Conference, highlighting Europe’s push for strategic autonomy, lingering reliance on the U.S., and a shared sense that the post‑World War II liberal order is eroding. Guests note France’s view that autonomy is a strategic necessity and point to growing Franco‑German tensions over defence cooperation, with Germany still favoring the trans‑Atlantic bond. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s speech reassured some but alarmed others by implicitly critiquing Europe’s current norms. The discussion weaves together perspectives from France, Germany, the UK and Poland to map the shifting security landscape.

By War on the Rocks
A Worrying Military Build-Up in the Western Balkans?
Blog•Feb 19, 2026

A Worrying Military Build-Up in the Western Balkans?

In this episode Blerim Vela examines the accelerating military modernisation across the Western Balkans, highlighting Serbia’s post‑2015 procurement surge and its ripple effects on neighbours. He explains how NATO members such as Albania, Croatia, Montenegro and North Macedonia are upgrading...

By War on the Rocks
Lessons From Past Israeli-Palestinian Talks for Trump’s Negotiators
Blog•Feb 18, 2026

Lessons From Past Israeli-Palestinian Talks for Trump’s Negotiators

The episode examines how lessons from historic Israeli‑Palestinian negotiations can inform President Trump’s ongoing cease‑fire talks following his October 2025 20‑point plan. Former State Department negotiator Aaron David Miller stresses that Trump’s personal, high‑level pressure on Netanyahu was crucial to Phase One’s...

By War on the Rocks
How Are Iran’s Proxies Doing Amidst a Weakened Regime?
Blog•Feb 18, 2026

How Are Iran’s Proxies Doing Amidst a Weakened Regime?

In this episode Farzin Zandi revisits his 2025 analysis of Iran’s gray‑zone strategy, assessing how the regime’s weakened state after the 12‑day war has eroded the morale, funding, and deterrence of its proxy network. He explains that proxy financing remains...

By War on the Rocks
China Now Finds Itself in Al-Qaeda’s Crosshairs
Blog•Feb 18, 2026

China Now Finds Itself in Al-Qaeda’s Crosshairs

In this episode Colin Clarke and Lucas Webber examine al‑Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s recent propaganda that explicitly threatens China over its treatment of Uyghur Muslims, marking a shift from peripheral to central antagonism. They trace the evolution of jihadist...

By War on the Rocks
The Greatest Threat to Acquisition Transformation Is Fear
Blog•Feb 17, 2026

The Greatest Threat to Acquisition Transformation Is Fear

In this episode, Bonnie Evangelista argues that the biggest obstacle to transforming the Department of Defense’s acquisition system is not policy or oversight but an entrenched culture of fear that rewards compliance and penalizes risk. She illustrates how this fear‑based incentive...

By War on the Rocks
Recalibrating U.S. Intelligence Strategy for an Uncertain Global Order
Blog•Feb 17, 2026

Recalibrating U.S. Intelligence Strategy for an Uncertain Global Order

In this episode Alexander Bick and Philip Potter argue that U.S. intelligence must adapt to a more contested global order by (1) treating leaders' public statements as credible indicators of intent, (2) systematically mapping elite and non‑state ecosystems, (3) emphasizing...

By War on the Rocks
Will These Four Defense Innovation Reforms Improve Industry’s Lot?
Blog•Feb 12, 2026

Will These Four Defense Innovation Reforms Improve Industry’s Lot?

In this episode Madeline Field examines four 2026 Pentagon reforms—a defense‑innovation memo, an AI memo, an executive order on industry standards, and a pilot commercial‑license program—assessing how they reshape the innovation ecosystem and procurement. While the memos aim to streamline...

By War on the Rocks
Gilded Capability: Overinvestment and the Survivability Paradox
Blog•Feb 12, 2026

Gilded Capability: Overinvestment and the Survivability Paradox

The episode examines how overinvestment in elite capabilities—whether elite pilots in WWII Japan or modern high‑cost platforms—creates a survivability paradox that undermines long‑term combat effectiveness. By concentrating resources on a few "gilded" assets, militaries must boost survivability, driving up costs,...

By War on the Rocks
Pauses Without Peace: What Last Year’s Ceasefires Reveal About Global Conflict Management
Blog•Feb 11, 2026

Pauses Without Peace: What Last Year’s Ceasefires Reveal About Global Conflict Management

In this episode Gopi Krishna Bhamidipati examines how the Trump administration’s diplomatic interventions in 2025‑2026 produced ceasefires across Gaza, the Israel‑Iran clash, India‑Pakistan tensions, the Thailand‑Cambodia border dispute, and Ukraine‑Russia, but stopped short of achieving lasting political settlements. The host...

By War on the Rocks
Sweet Nothings: Rutte’s Trump-Whispering Is Counterproductive
Blog•Feb 11, 2026

Sweet Nothings: Rutte’s Trump-Whispering Is Counterproductive

In this episode Leonard A. Schütte critiques NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte’s overt flattery of President Donald Trump, arguing that while it has temporarily eased tensions—such as the Greenland dispute—it ultimately undermines NATO’s needed Europeanization. He contrasts Rutte’s approach with that...

By War on the Rocks
Does Guaranteeing Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge Still Serve U.S. Interests?
Blog•Feb 10, 2026

Does Guaranteeing Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge Still Serve U.S. Interests?

In this episode Rob Geist Pinfold examines whether the United States should continue guaranteeing Israel’s qualitative military edge (QME) amid shifting regional dynamics and Netanyahu’s surprising call to cut U.S. aid. He traces the historical evolution of U.S. military assistance—from Cold‑War...

By War on the Rocks
Biodefense Blind Spot: Why Washington Confuses Pandemics with Bioweapons
Blog•Feb 10, 2026

Biodefense Blind Spot: Why Washington Confuses Pandemics with Bioweapons

In this episode Junaid Nabi explains how the convergence of generative AI and synthetic biology is creating a new class of biological threats that evade traditional pandemic‑focused defenses. Recent AI models such as Evo 2, Claude Opus 4, and OpenAI’s o3 can design...

By War on the Rocks
Deterrence Won’t Fail in the Taiwan Strait — It Will Be Bypassed
Blog•Feb 9, 2026

Deterrence Won’t Fail in the Taiwan Strait — It Will Be Bypassed

In this episode J. William DeMarco argues that recent Chinese military activities around Taiwan are less about rehearsing an invasion and more about a strategy of paralysis—using encirclement, law‑enforcement vessels, and limited rocket fire to create economic and political pressure...

By War on the Rocks

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