Beijing’s United Front and the Quiet Transfer of Western Technology
The Chinese Communist Party’s United Front Work Department has built a covert network of more than 2,000 organizations across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Germany, using business, cultural and academic groups to influence policy and facilitate technology transfer. Recent investigations reveal that United Front‑linked chambers of commerce helped export high‑performance integrated circuits to a China Electronics Technology Group subsidiary, and that a USDA geneticist was caught stealing rice seeds for a Chinese delegation. Over 900 U.S. entities tied to the United Front remain unregistered under the Foreign Agents Registration Act, exposing gaps in enforcement. The report urges systematic audits, clearer FARA guidance and capacity‑building for officials to curb covert military‑civil fusion.
Airwaves of Power: Why the Pentagon Should Shift to a Commercial-First Spectrum Model
The Pentagon now occupies roughly 93% of U.S. mid‑band spectrum while commercial users hold only about 3%, a legacy of century‑old policy rather than current strategic need. A forthcoming FCC auction of 100 MHz in the AWS‑3 band and a larger...
Presence or Capacity? The Coast Guard Can Have Both Through Small Boat Stations
U.S. Coast Guard small‑boat stations, long entrenched in local communities, are politically difficult to close even when studies show overlapping coverage. Under Force Design 2028, the service will grow by about 15,000 personnel, prompting a need to repurpose existing stations as...
Why Do Many Western Defense Tech Firms Struggle in Ukraine?
Western defense technology firms have struggled to deliver effective solutions in Ukraine, as highlighted by Michael Kofman and Ryan Evans. The authors attribute shortfalls to poor implementation, sluggish feedback mechanisms, and a mismatch between design assumptions and battlefield realities. They...
Seeing the Cyber in Economic Statecraft
The blog argues that economic and cyber statecraft have become inseparable, with the U.S. financial system processing over $1 trillion of digital activity each day and facing escalating cyber threats. It highlights how the "defend forward" cyber strategy has moved the...
Europe Might Sit Out In An Indo-Pacific War — But It Can’t Escape the Fallout
Paul van Hooft and Tim Sweijs revisit their 2024 argument that a U.S.-China war over Taiwan would drag Europe into conflict, even if Europe stays militarily neutral. The 2026 U.S. National Defense Strategy now explicitly asks European allies to shoulder...
When the Rules Fail: Tax Incentives and Defense Sustainment
The author proposes a tiered tax credit to steer private‑sector defense sustainment work toward government depots, aiming to preserve the organic industrial base’s workforce and surge capacity. Declining workload at depots, driven by procurement policies and IP constraints, threatens readiness,...
Resilience Without Capacity: The Fatal Flaw in America’s New Cyber Strategy
The White House’s new cyber strategy pivots toward a resilience‑focused, competition‑driven posture and calls for offensive cyber tools alongside private‑sector participation. At the same time, the administration has slashed the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s workforce by roughly one‑third, cutting...
Why Iran Metabolizes the Pressure that Broke Venezuela
The article argues that U.S. policymakers misread how external pressure works on Iran, confusing it with the Venezuelan case. Iran’s resilience stems from a theocratic “resistance economy,” dual security structures, and control of the Strait of Hormuz, which absorb and...
How the War in Iran Is Affecting Its Northern and Eastern Neighbors
The U.S.–Israeli war with Iran, which began on Feb. 28, is rippling beyond the Gulf, affecting Iran’s northern and eastern neighbors. In Armenia, trade through the Meghri crossing has stalled and Indian arms shipments routed via Iran are on hold, creating...
The United States Is Repeating Its Silicon Mistake with Gallium Nitride
China controls roughly 99% of the world’s primary gallium and imposed an outright export ban on the United States in December 2024, leaving the U.S. defense stockpile with zero reserves. The article warns that the U.S. is repeating the silicon...
I’m Sorry, Dave. I’m Afraid I Can’t De-Escalate: On (AI) Wargaming and Nuclear War
Recent AI‑driven wargames of nuclear crises show frontier language models escalating to tactical nuclear use in 95% of simulations, with strategic threats in 76% of games. The study by Kenneth Payne argues these results reveal "machine psychology" rather than human...
What the War Against Iran Means for the U.S.-South Korean Alliance
The U.S.–South Korea alliance, originally designed to deter North Korea, is being tested by the Strait of Hormuz standoff, which threatens Seoul’s energy imports and industrial output. About 61% of its crude oil and 54% of naphtha arrive via the...
The F-35 Is a Masterpiece Built for the Wrong War
The U.S. F‑35 program, now projected to cost over $2 trillion, proved its stealth and sensor‑fusion strengths in the short‑duration Iran campaign. However, analysts argue the aircraft’s high unit cost, limited production rate, and heavy logistical footprint make it ill‑suited for...
Iran and the Indispensable Broker: How Pakistan Outmaneuvers India on the World Stage
In September 2025 Pakistan and Saudi Arabia formalized a mutual‑defense pact, cementing a half‑century pattern of Islamabad’s role as a security broker in the Gulf. The agreement, while framed as conventional cooperation, carries an ambiguous nuclear dimension that could extend Pakistan’s...
Ceasefires and Communications
On April 7, President Donald Trump moved from a stark warning that “a whole civilization will die tonight” to announcing a two‑week cease‑fire with Iran. Subsequent negotiations in Pakistan, attended by Vice President JD Vance and Iran’s parliamentary speaker, failed to produce...
How to Counter the Houthis Without Strengthening Them
The United States should avoid repeating a decade of Saudi‑led campaigns that unintentionally strengthened Yemen’s Houthi movement. A new approach must blend limited kinetic strikes with economic aid and tribal partnerships to erode the insurgents’ patronage networks. Recent field surveys...
Winning in the Donbas: What Russia’s 2014–2015 Campaign Reveals About Modern War
The 2014‑15 Donbas campaign demonstrated how Russia combined sequential sieges of Ilovaisk, Donetsk Airport and Debal’tseve to turn battlefield victories into decisive political outcomes. By concentrating overwhelming firepower and manpower on key transport hubs, Russian forces forced Ukraine into strategic...
Anthropic’s Nuclear Bomb
Anthropic unveiled Claude Mythos Preview, an AI model that can autonomously discover and exploit zero‑day vulnerabilities with a 72.4% success rate. In tests the model cracked a 17‑year‑old FreeBSD remote code execution flaw, granting unauthenticated root access. Access is restricted...
Rethinking Security Cooperation in the Age of Commercial Tech
Jarrett Lane argues that U.S. security cooperation must pivot from legacy defense articles to commercially sourced technologies to keep pace with modern threats. He notes a $250 billion foreign‑military‑sales backlog and highlights Ukraine’s rapid adoption of commercial cloud and analytics during...
Operationalizing Economic Statecraft: A New Imperative for the Pentagon
The Pentagon is urged to institutionalize economic statecraft through a new Economic Warfare Operations Capability (EWOC). Recent conflicts, such as Russia’s war in Ukraine, show that export controls and supply‑chain leverage can cripple military capability before any shots are fired....
Bonus In Brief: Choke Point: The Risks and Realities of America’s Iran Blockade
On April 13, 2026 the United States launched a maritime blockade of all traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports, following President Donald Trump’s April 12 announcement after failed negotiations in Islamabad. The move targets the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a...
Examining the Cracks and the Cement in the Sino-Russian Relationship
Two years after their 2024 analysis, John Stanko and Spenser Warren say no new flashpoints have emerged between Moscow and Beijing, but the same structural strains persist. Russia’s deepening economic dependence on China, competition over Arctic access, and Moscow’s courting...
Why Booz Allen Is Partnering With One of the World’s Most Important VC Firms
Booz Allen Hamilton announced a strategic partnership with Andreessen Horowitz, one of Silicon Valley’s most influential venture capital firms. The collaboration aims to bridge the gap between cutting‑edge startups and U.S. defense procurement processes. Executives Bryce Pippert and Matt Cronin...
Silent Killers, Not Signals: Why States Use Poison in Assassinations
The death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny in 2024 was traced to the rare frog toxin epibatidine, reviving scrutiny of state‑sponsored poison assassinations. Recent analyses show that poisons are chosen for covert lethality and deniability, not theatrical signaling, a...
The Demise of Strategic Planning in Israel
The article argues that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition has systematically dismantled Israel’s strategic planning apparatus, replacing professional analysis with a loyalist echo chamber. By appointing political allies to key security posts and sidelining independent bodies, the government has limited...
Hungary Turns a New Page
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán conceded defeat on April 12, ending 16 years of rule after his Fidesz party lost its parliamentary majority. The centre‑right Tisza party, led by Peter Magyar, is projected to hold a two‑thirds supermajority and has...
The Bromine Chokepoint: How Strife in the Middle East Could Halt Production of the World’s Memory Chips
The global memory‑chip supply chain hinges on bromine, a specialty chemical sourced almost entirely from Israel. South Korea imports 97.5% of its bromine, which is converted into semiconductor‑grade hydrogen bromide (HBr) gas used to etch DRAM and NAND flash chips....
Strategy Without Hubris: How China Rose by Managing America’s Reaction
Oriana Skylar Mastro’s book *Upstart* argues that China’s rise was driven by a calibrated strategy that managed U.S. reactions rather than overt confrontation. Beijing alternated between emulating, exploiting, and entrepreneurial moves—joining WTO, expanding UN peacekeeping, and launching the AIIB—to gain...
Bankova, Budapest, and Bunnies
Ukraine’s expanding drone and missile campaign is exposing a severe shortfall in Russia’s air‑defense missile stockpiles, especially beyond the heavily protected Moscow region. Sources say interceptor systems are concentrated around the capital, leaving areas such as Crimea vulnerable to increasingly...
Can a New Bridge Finally Save the Pentagon’s Best Ideas?
The article proposes an "innovation insertion increment" for DoD portfolio acquisition executives, earmarking flexible capital to transition proven commercial prototypes into operational capability. It cites historic breakthroughs—Rickover’s nuclear submarine reactor, SpaceX’s reusable booster, and SpektreWorks’ low‑cost combat drone—as examples of...
Regime Change in Iran, Underpants Gnomes, and the Phase II Problem
President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched the Iran conflict with explicit calls for regime change, urging Iranians to overthrow the Islamic Republic. A month‑long ceasefire has paused hostilities, but the original objective remains unfulfilled as the war’s...
The Future Soldier Loadout: Smarter Gear or Dead Weight?
The next generation of U.S. infantry will be equipped with tightly integrated human‑machine systems that blur the line between soldier and technology. Wearable sensors, augmented‑reality helmets, and powered exoskeletons aim to boost situational awareness, endurance, and survivability. However, weight, power...
Disperse to Survive: The Logic of French Forward Deterrence
French President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a new "forward deterrence" doctrine that would temporarily disperse France’s nuclear‑capable Rafale B/F3‑R fighters to allied European bases. The plan stresses strategic‑only use of nuclear weapons and aims to boost survivability of the airborne leg...
Iran’s Other Front: The War Over the Internet
Iran imposed a near‑total internet blackout after the Feb. 28 strikes, cutting 98% of traffic and leaving 90 million citizens offline. Volunteer proxy networks such as Psiphon’s Conduit and Tor’s Snowflake surged, reaching 9.6 million daily Iranian users and 5 million connections on Feb. 27....
Update From the Battlefield: Drones, Distance, and Diminishing Returns for Russia
Michael Kofman and Ryan Evans assess the Russo‑Ukrainian war’s evolving dynamics, highlighting how pervasive drone warfare has turned the front into a sprawling, dispersed kill zone. Russian infiltration tactics are yielding diminishing returns, failing to secure lasting territorial gains. Ukraine is...
What Is Strategic Rivalry? Why Should We Care?
The article distinguishes strategic rivalry from strategic competition, noting that rivalries involve repeated, high‑stakes conflicts that account for roughly 80 percent of wars. It identifies China, Russia and Iran as the United States’ current strategic rivals, each employing gray‑zone tactics or...
Iran’s Asymmetric Counterair Campaign: Attacking the U.S. Air Force’s Nests and Eggs
Iran has launched an asymmetric counter‑air campaign using drones and ballistic missiles, striking U.S. assets across the Gulf. In late March it destroyed an E‑3 AWACS and damaged multiple KC‑135 tankers at Prince Sultan Air Base, following earlier attacks on...
How NATO’s Air Defense Future Is Unfolding
In a 2024 piece, Shaan Shaikh outlined three possible paths for NATO’s air and missile defense: a NATO‑led approach, a European‑led common procurement strategy, and maintaining the current federated model. Two years later, the European‑led vision is materialising fastest, driven...
How This Precision Weapon Reengineered Modern War
Jeffrey E. Stern’s new book, *The Warhead*, spotlights the Paveway laser‑guided bomb, a modest yet transformative precision weapon that reshaped how the United States conducts air power. By offering inexpensive, accurate strikes, Paveway let policymakers intervene with reduced political risk...
The Campaign Ends at the Breach: Lessons From Ukraine on Why Armies Fail
The 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive stalled when engineers failed to open a lane at the Novodarivka breach, halting the broader campaign despite ample ammunition and fuel. Historical cases such as the Remagen bridge and Operation Market Garden reinforce that a successful...
The Iran War’s Widening Impacts in the Middle East and North Africa
Recent hostilities between Iran and Israel have spilled across the Middle East and North Africa, prompting direct attacks on Gulf states, Iraq, Jordan, and a ground invasion in southern Lebanon. Experts highlight how the conflict reshapes dynamics in Yemen, where...
The Hidden System Turning Chinese Tech Companies Into Military Suppliers
Chinese robot maker Unitree, which controls over 60% of the global quadruped market, has been quietly integrated into China’s military‑civil fusion system despite an earlier anti‑weaponization pledge. State designations, tax breaks and university procurement channels have funneled its affordable robot...
Closing the Air and Missile Defense Gap in the Indo-Pacific
The United States burned through roughly 100‑150 upper‑tier missile interceptors during the 12‑day Iran‑Israel conflict, depleting about a quarter of its global stockpile. Modeling by the Stimson Center warns that, in a Pacific clash with China, U.S. Patriot and terminal‑phase...
Iran’s Anti-Access and Area Denial Strategy Is Cruder Than China’s But Still Dangerous
Iran has built a three‑layer anti‑access/area‑denial (A2/AD) architecture that mirrors China’s concept but is tailored to its limited resources. The system spans forward‑basing infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el‑Mandeb chokepoints, and the Persian Gulf itself, relying on a large...
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz & Saving Downed Pilots
Retired admirals Jamie Foggo and John “Fozzie” Miller discussed how Iran has effectively throttled the Strait of Hormuz and what it would take to restore freedom of navigation. Their analysis covered threats such as mines, drones, missiles, and the potential...
Are Perceptions the Reality?
Ukrainian analyst Tetiana Chornovol argues that multi‑story concrete high‑rise buildings have become the most vital asset in modern drone warfare, providing durable shelters and operational bases. She contends that forests, trenches, and private homes are easily detected and destroyed, making...
The Age of Unlearning: How Democracies Lost Their Grip on Strategic Time
The United States has been steadily dismantling long‑term strategic institutions, from the temporary elimination of the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment to steep cuts at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency....
Sharpening Signals and Reducing Noise for Better Defense Budgets
The article argues that the U.S. defense budget must serve as a clear, coherent signal to industry, integrating economic statecraft to preserve America’s competitive edge. Defense spending accounts for roughly 47% of discretionary federal funds, about $310 billion annually, making it...
From Filament to Firepower: 3D Printing’s Impact on Warfare
Additive manufacturing is reshaping small‑arms warfare by allowing non‑state actors to produce functional firearms and ammunition locally. Open‑source designs and affordable printers have turned 3D‑printed guns from novelty items into reliable, magazine‑fed weapons used in conflicts such as Myanmar’s civil...