2026 on Track for Second‑warmest Year, 1.47°C Above Pre‑industrial
Global temperatures in 2026 are on track to be the second warmest on record, at around 1.47C above preindustrial levels across the five different records assessed by Carbon Brief. Read more in our latest State of the Climate update for Q1 2026 here: https://t.co/Firo3rDHzR https://t.co/JRowSZ04iM
El Niño Forecasts Push NOAA CFSv2
With the latest set of El Niño forecasts, NOAA's CFSv2 model needs to get a larger y-axis scale 😯 https://t.co/8qwDrckPw8 https://t.co/agtkgoigpF
Ensemble Forecast Predicts 2.2 °C September El Niño
We now have 13 different models with 637 different ensemble members with El Niño forecasts out through at least September 2026. They suggest a best estimate of 2.2C for September; interestingly ECMWF (which was seen as particularly hot when it came...
April Update Shows El Niño May Match 2015‑16 Strength
I've updated my El Niño forecast plume with the latest April data (ECMWF, NMME, CFSv2, Canadian models). Its now looking like it might end up giving 2015/2016 a run for its money in terms of strength, with a peak of...
Warming Trend Turns Weather Variability Into Record-Breaking Events
This is a great example of how internal climate variability (e.g. weather) on top of a long term warming trend leads to new records being set. If the US weren't warming over time the records here would be 3 ->...
March 2026 Ranks Fourth Warmest, 1.48°C Above Pre‑industrial
March 2026 was the 4th warmest March on record for the planet's surface in the ERA5 dataset, coming in at 1.48C above preindustrial levels. https://t.co/Z0Jja9ncx4
One Year of Emissions Impacts Climate for a Century
This is one of the most fascinating and under-appreciated figures of the recent IPCC AR6 report (Figure 6.16). It shows the effects of a single year of emissions after 10 and 100 years, and really illustrates the difference between stock...
20‑Year Methane‑CO₂ Comparison Flawed; Separate Targets Needed
Using a 20-year period to compare methane the CO2 is a terrible idea. It heavily discounts the future and locks in greater warming. New York should move away from it, and instead set separate targets for CO2 and short-lived climate...
Runaway Climate Feedbacks Unlikely; Earth Differs From Venus
There is a lot to worry about with climate change, but "runaway" feedbacks are not one of them. Good piece by Andrew Dessler over at The Climate Brink on how climate feedbacks work and why the Earth is different from...
Human CO2 Emissions 120× Volcano Output, Not Myth
This "factoid" seems to be all over X this week. However, even the most cursory of internet searches (or LLM queries) would show its complete fiction. In reality, human activity emits approximately 120x more CO2 than all the world's volcanoes combined....
New ENSO Model Raises 2026 Temperature
I've updated the Climate Dashboard to use the new 11-model ENSO multi-model mean to help predict 2026 temperatures. It caused the 2026 estimate to jump from 1.45C to 1.51C, reflecting the much higher likelihood of a strong El Nino developing: https://t.co/Dx8ydDOXyC...
Strong 2016‑level El Niño Expected, Forecasts Show
El Niño is coming, and it is shaping up to be a big one. Over at The Climate Brink I've put together a compilation of the latest forecasts by different modeling groups. They suggest that we might see an event...
CO2’s Logarithmic Forcing Known Since 1896, Skeptics Finally Notice
This is apparently the week that climate skeptics in X discovered that CO2 has a logarithmic relationship with radiative forcing. We've actually known this since Arrhenius' work in 1896, and its embedded in all our models. But congratulations on getting caught...
China’s Solar Surge Outpaces Declining US Installations
US solar installation: Down 14% between 2024 and 2025. Chinese solar installation: Up 14% between 2024 and 2025. Last year China installed more than 7 times more solar capacity than the US. So much for energy dominance... https://t.co/te4ziwFqlX
Short‑lived Pollutant Cuts Need Carbon Removal to Offset CO₂
There has been a lot of recent interest by companies in mitigating short-lived climate "super-pollutants" like methane and refrigerants. This can have a strong short-term climate impact, but to credibly counterbalance CO2 emissions requires combining them with durable carbon removal.