Frontier Launches Quebec Hub for Scalable Carbon Removal
A few years ago Frontier started a search for scalable low-cost approaches to durable carbon removal that were under-invested in. Today we are launching the Quebec Surficial Mineralization Hub to kickstart one of the most promising: https://t.co/OyIIkctRJR
2026 on Track for Second‑warmest Year, 1.47°C Above Pre‑industrial
Global temperatures in 2026 are on track to be the second warmest on record, at around 1.47C above preindustrial levels across the five different records assessed by Carbon Brief. Read more in our latest State of the Climate update for...
El Niño Forecasts Push NOAA CFSv2
With the latest set of El Niño forecasts, NOAA's CFSv2 model needs to get a larger y-axis scale 😯 https://t.co/8qwDrckPw8 https://t.co/agtkgoigpF
Ensemble Forecast Predicts 2.2 °C September El Niño
We now have 13 different models with 637 different ensemble members with El Niño forecasts out through at least September 2026. They suggest a best estimate of 2.2C for September; interestingly ECMWF (which was seen as particularly hot when it came...
April Update Shows El Niño May Match 2015‑16 Strength
I've updated my El Niño forecast plume with the latest April data (ECMWF, NMME, CFSv2, Canadian models). Its now looking like it might end up giving 2015/2016 a run for its money in terms of strength, with a peak of...
Warming Trend Turns Weather Variability Into Record-Breaking Events
This is a great example of how internal climate variability (e.g. weather) on top of a long term warming trend leads to new records being set. If the US weren't warming over time the records here would be 3 ->...
March 2026 Ranks Fourth Warmest, 1.48°C Above Pre‑industrial
March 2026 was the 4th warmest March on record for the planet's surface in the ERA5 dataset, coming in at 1.48C above preindustrial levels. https://t.co/Z0Jja9ncx4
One Year of Emissions Impacts Climate for a Century
This is one of the most fascinating and under-appreciated figures of the recent IPCC AR6 report (Figure 6.16). It shows the effects of a single year of emissions after 10 and 100 years, and really illustrates the difference between stock...
20‑Year Methane‑CO₂ Comparison Flawed; Separate Targets Needed
Using a 20-year period to compare methane the CO2 is a terrible idea. It heavily discounts the future and locks in greater warming. New York should move away from it, and instead set separate targets for CO2 and short-lived climate...
Runaway Climate Feedbacks Unlikely; Earth Differs From Venus
There is a lot to worry about with climate change, but "runaway" feedbacks are not one of them. Good piece by Andrew Dessler over at The Climate Brink on how climate feedbacks work and why the Earth is different from...
Human CO2 Emissions 120× Volcano Output, Not Myth
This "factoid" seems to be all over X this week. However, even the most cursory of internet searches (or LLM queries) would show its complete fiction. In reality, human activity emits approximately 120x more CO2 than all the world's volcanoes combined....
New ENSO Model Raises 2026 Temperature
I've updated the Climate Dashboard to use the new 11-model ENSO multi-model mean to help predict 2026 temperatures. It caused the 2026 estimate to jump from 1.45C to 1.51C, reflecting the much higher likelihood of a strong El Nino developing: https://t.co/Dx8ydDOXyC...
Strong 2016‑level El Niño Expected, Forecasts Show
El Niño is coming, and it is shaping up to be a big one. Over at The Climate Brink I've put together a compilation of the latest forecasts by different modeling groups. They suggest that we might see an event...
CO2’s Logarithmic Forcing Known Since 1896, Skeptics Finally Notice
This is apparently the week that climate skeptics in X discovered that CO2 has a logarithmic relationship with radiative forcing. We've actually known this since Arrhenius' work in 1896, and its embedded in all our models. But congratulations on getting caught...
China’s Solar Surge Outpaces Declining US Installations
US solar installation: Down 14% between 2024 and 2025. Chinese solar installation: Up 14% between 2024 and 2025. Last year China installed more than 7 times more solar capacity than the US. So much for energy dominance... https://t.co/te4ziwFqlX
Short‑lived Pollutant Cuts Need Carbon Removal to Offset CO₂
There has been a lot of recent interest by companies in mitigating short-lived climate "super-pollutants" like methane and refrigerants. This can have a strong short-term climate impact, but to credibly counterbalance CO2 emissions requires combining them with durable carbon removal.
One‑Year 5% Cut Barely Moves Long‑lived Gas Levels
If only someone had looked at this, say, back in April 2020. 🙄 Turns out that a 5% reduction in emissions for one year for a gas that accumulates in the atmosphere has a tiny effect on concentrations. https://t.co/if0d8eyX1F https://t.co/UFWo16Rc47
El Nino Set to Push 2027 to Record Warmth
The El Nino cometh. This would push up our estimate for 2026 global temperatures (though its still unlikely to surpass 2024 as the warmest year), and make 2027 very likely to be the warmest year on record given the historical...
Clean Energy Investment Nears Military Spending Threshold, War Delays
One of my predictions in our Climate Brink year end wrapup was that 2026 might be the first year where global clean energy investment exceeds global military spending. Unfortunately with recent wars we will likely have to wait a few more...
Solar Optimism, Not Maximalism, Calls for Diversified Clean Energy
Good piece by @atrembath and @TedNordhaus on the distinction between solar optimism and solar maximalism. I'm definitely quite bullish on solar, but we also need other clean energy technologies (wind, storage, nuclear, geothermal, CCS for some industrial processes) alongside it....
AI Boosts Climate Research—But Beware Its Pitfalls
As a rare climate scientist working in Silicon Valley, I've been drinking from the AI firehose a lot more than my peers. I thought it would be helpful to lay out my experiences of both the promise and pitfalls of...
Science Now Overwhelmingly Refutes Trump’s Climate Repeal
The scientific understanding of human-driven climate change is much stronger today than it was in 2009 when the EPA first issued the endangerment finding. There is no scientific basis for the Trump administration's decision to repeal it https://t.co/l5qmBNkADn
Solar, Batteries Won’t Quickly Decarbonize China’s Aluminum Industry
Solar and batteries are an amazing success story, but lets be a bit careful in getting ahead of ourselves on their near-term potential to decarbonize Chinese heavy industries like aluminum (which is heavily dependent on colocated coal plants). A great...