Annual Inflation in Uzbekistan Ticks up 0.1pp to 7.3% in February

Why It Matters

The slight inflation uptick signals persistent price pressures in food and transport, challenging the government’s deflationary agenda. Keeping inflation near the central bank’s target is crucial for monetary stability and foreign‑investment confidence.

Key Takeaways

• Headline inflation rose to 7.3% in February, up 0.1pp.
• Food prices jumped 5.9% year‑on‑year, double last year.
• Transport tickets surged 14% month‑on‑month.
• Core inflation reached 8.3% annually, edging higher.
• Central Bank expects 6.5% inflation by year‑end 2026.

Pulse Analysis

Uzbekistan’s inflation trajectory remains a focal point for regional investors as the country navigates post‑pandemic recovery. After a sharp peak of 10.1% in February 2025, the headline rate has receded to 7.3% in February 2026, reflecting tighter fiscal discipline and modest monetary easing. Yet the incremental rise underscores lingering vulnerabilities, especially in food markets where price gains have doubled year‑on‑year, pressuring household budgets and potentially dampening consumer confidence.

Sector‑specific dynamics reveal a mixed picture. Food items surged 5.9% annually, driven by higher grain and vegetable costs, while non‑food categories eased to 5.2% year‑on‑year, indicating some success in curbing broader price pressures. Transport costs spiked dramatically, with long‑distance train tickets up 14% month‑on‑month, highlighting infrastructure bottlenecks and fuel price volatility. Meanwhile, gasoline grades showed modest declines, but premium fuels edged higher, and LPG rose nearly 10% annually, reflecting global commodity trends and domestic supply constraints.

For policymakers, the central bank’s revised forecast of 6.5% inflation by year‑end 2026 signals confidence in the current tightening cycle but also a warning that further shocks could derail the path. Maintaining credibility will require vigilant monitoring of food and transport price spikes, as well as continued reforms to improve market competition. Investors will watch for signals of policy adjustments, as stable inflation is a prerequisite for attracting foreign direct investment and sustaining Uzbekistan’s ambitious economic diversification agenda.