Economy Has 'Left ICU', Says Finance Chief

Why It Matters

The rebound signals Thailand’s return to sustainable growth, attracting investors and supporting policy continuity amid global uncertainties. Faster expansion could improve living standards and reinforce the country’s fiscal resilience.

Key Takeaways

• Q4 2025 GDP grew 2.5%, beating forecasts
• Government targets >3% growth via “year of investment”
• BoI Fast Pass scheme to accelerate FDI inflows
• Current account surplus at 3.1% of GDP
• Private investment surged 8.1% in Q4

Pulse Analysis

Thailand’s Q4 2025 GDP surprise reflects a broader post‑pandemic recovery that many analysts missed. The 2.5% expansion, driven by a sharp rebound in private investment and a modest export uptick, lifted the annual growth rate to 2.4%, surpassing both the finance ministry’s and NESDC’s projections. This momentum has encouraged the caretaker finance minister to frame the economy as having left the intensive‑care unit, positioning the country for a more aggressive growth agenda in 2026.

Central to the government’s strategy is the “year of investment,” a policy push that leverages the Board of Investment’s Fast Pass scheme to cut red tape and fast‑track high‑value projects. By streamlining approvals, Thailand hopes to attract additional foreign direct investment, diversify its export base, and stimulate sectors such as renewable energy and digital services. Coupled with a solid current‑account surplus of 3.1% of GDP and a reaffirmed S&P credit rating, these measures aim to reinforce fiscal stability while delivering the targeted >3% growth.

Nevertheless, external headwinds remain. Geopolitical tensions, especially between the United States and Iran, and lingering global trade frictions could dampen export demand. Domestically, the private sector warns that construction and tourism recovery are still fragile, and the upcoming government transition may delay policy implementation. Balancing stimulus with prudent fiscal management will be crucial for Thailand to sustain its recovery and achieve the ambitious growth ceiling the finance ministry envisions.

Economy has 'left ICU', says finance chief

Bangkok Post · 17 February 2026

Thailand's economy has now “left the intensive care unit [ICU]”, reflected in fourth‑quarter growth of 2.5 %, which surpassed the earlier projection of 1.8 % and lifted full‑year 2025 growth to 2.4 %, above the 2 % forecast, said caretaker finance minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas.

He said GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 came in at 2.5 %, higher than the Finance Ministry’s forecast of 1.8 % and also higher than the projection of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), which had previously expected growth of only 0.3 %. This indicates that the economy has now emerged from its slump. For 2026, the NESDC estimates growth of 2 %.

“We now know that our patient has left the ICU. The question is how we can make this patient strong again. We must exercise and build physical strength so the body is ready to run. This is a key factor,” Mr Ekniti said.

Regarding economic growth this year, Mr Ekniti said the government will seek to push Thailand’s economy to expand by more than 3 %. The key strategy to achieve this goal is to enhance economic potential through a “year of investment”. The government will continue to unlock investment, particularly through the Board of Investment’s (BoI) Fast Pass scheme in order to accelerate the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI).

For the economic outlook in 2026, although the Finance Ministry forecasts growth of 2 %, Mr Ekniti said the government is confident that, with momentum carried over from the end of last year, GDP growth can be pushed to 3 %, or “3 Plus”. The main strategy remains raising economic potential through a year of investment and continuing to ease what are deemed to be obstacles to investment via the BoI Fast Pass scheme to speed up FDI inflows.

“A GDP growth rate of 2 % this year should be considered the minimum. How far it can go will depend on many volatile external factors, which makes this quite challenging,” Mr Ekniti said.

At the same time, the government will accelerate legal reforms that hinder investment in order to ensure sustainable economic growth. It will also maintain fiscal stability.

Thailand’s current‑account balance currently remains in surplus at 3.1 % of GDP, and the country has received confidence from the global credit‑rating agency S&P Global, which has reaffirmed Thailand’s fiscal strength.

Key data points

• GDP growth Q4 2025: 2.5 % (up from 1.2 % in Q3)

• Private consumption growth: 3.3 % (up from 2.5 % in Q3)

• Total investment growth: 8.1 % (up from 1.4 % in Q3)

• Exports: US$84 billion, +9.4 % (down from +11.5 % in Q3)

• Imports: US$82.6 billion, +17.5 % (up from +12.2 % in Q3)

• Foreign tourist arrivals Q4 2025: 8.85 million (≈90 % of pre‑Covid level)

• GDP per capita 2025: 269,643.1 baht (≈US$8,200.9)

• Unemployment 2025: 0.81 %

• Average inflation 2025: –0.1 %

For 2026, the NESDC projects GDP growth of 1.5 %–2.5 %, with a midpoint of 2 %, supported mainly by continued expansion in private consumption and private investment (projected to grow by 2.1 % and 1.9 % respectively), higher government expenditure, a recovery in tourism (average spending per foreign tourist expected to reach 47,000 baht per trip), and adequate water supply supporting agricultural production.

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Tough Road Ahead

Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, deputy managing director of Kasikorn Research Centre (K‑Research), said the actual growth of last year’s final quarter was significantly higher than its forecast of less than 1 %.

“The surprisingly high growth possibly came from exports, but we have to figure out why private investments surged significantly [by 13 %] in the past quarter, which is in contrast to our projection of less than 1 % under the existing economic circumstances,” she told the Bangkok Post.

Other components remained subdued. Tourism recovery was slow while construction stayed sluggish amid a stagnant property market.

K‑Research projects GDP growth of 1.6 % this year, slightly higher than the Bank of Thailand’s estimate of 1.5 %, despite a boost from the Feb 8 election results. The clear win of the current ruling Bhumjaithai Party has given positive sentiment regarding policy continuity and political stability.

“Based on the current timeline, official poll results should be confirmed by late May at the latest, paving the way for the new government to be installed by June. Such a projection lessens concerns about a possible delay of the endorsement of this year’s fiscal budget,” she noted.

Nevertheless, the think‑tank anticipates economic momentum is likely to slow down in the first quarter, given that the new government will not take office until later in the year. Growth in the second quarter still depends on the new government’s economic policies.

Global conditions also present downside risks, especially heightened geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. “President Donald Trump is expected to switch from a ‘tariff war to a rare‑earth war’, putting the world economy under uncertainty,” Ms Nattaporn said.

Pichai Lertsupongkit, chief commercial officer of InnovestX Securities, said the NESDC figure was higher than the market forecast of 1.2 %, possibly boosted by exports and government spending. However, the brokerage projects the economy would expand by less than 2 % in the first six months, as overseas shipments tend to slow down based on high growth in the same period of 2025 to avoid impacts of US reciprocal tariffs, when Thailand had not clinched a deal with Washington.

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Maintaining Momentum

Poj Aramwattananont, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said the 2025 GDP exceeded projections, reflecting the success of the government’s stimulus initiatives. The chamber is hopeful that this positive momentum will be maintained through weekly meetings between the government’s economic team and private‑sector representatives to determine strategic policy directions, monitor KPIs, and expedite decisions amid global uncertainties.

Regarding the economic‑growth projection of 2 % for 2026, Mr Poj warned that several risks remain, particularly from the global economy, trade dynamics, and the baht’s strength.

“If the government can sustain momentum in consumption and investment while managing the budget effectively, the Thai economy has the potential for continuous expansion,” he said.

He added that the private sector sees the importance of strategic issues, including maintaining fiscal stability and monetary discipline alongside stimulus initiatives such as accelerating infrastructure development and attracting high‑quality investments. The chamber plans to discuss these issues with the BoI.

Moreover, he stressed the need to enhance the competitiveness of small‑ and medium‑sized enterprises and the export sector. Mr Poj said the government must strengthen confidence of domestic and international investors by issuing clear policies. Collaboration, he noted, is essential to address challenges, support economic recovery, and tackle global uncertainty.

The chamber and the Bank of Thailand are prepared to work with the new government within a framework of public‑private collaboration to drive the Thai economy toward stable growth, enhanced competitiveness, and sustainable development over the long term.