Newsquawk Week Ahead Highlights (and Week in Review)- 20-24th April

Key Takeaways

• US‑Iran ceasefire ends April 22, raising Middle‑East tension risk
• PBOC likely keeps LPR at 3.00%/3.50%, no near‑term rate change
• Canadian March CPI eases to 2.33% but oil price risk persists
• UK March jobs expected flat, limiting BoE policy shift
• CBRT may hike rates 300 bps to 40% amid 30%+ inflation

Pulse Analysis

The expiration of the two‑week US‑Iran ceasefire on April 22 adds a fresh layer of uncertainty to global markets. Energy traders are already pricing a potential supply squeeze in the Strait of Hormuz, while investors monitor the ripple effects on oil‑linked currencies and inflation‑sensitive assets. The broader geopolitical backdrop also influences risk sentiment in emerging markets, where capital flows can shift rapidly in response to any escalation.

Central banks across the world are navigating a tightrope between stubborn price pressures and slowing growth. In China, the People’s Bank of China is expected to keep its Loan Prime Rates steady at 3.00% for one‑year loans and 3.50% for five‑year mortgages, signaling confidence in its current liquidity stance despite mixed domestic data. The Bank of Canada’s March CPI fell to 2.33%, yet elevated gasoline prices keep the inflation outlook volatile, prompting the BoC to keep policy options open. Meanwhile, the Bank of England faces a flat employment picture in March, reducing immediate impetus for rate hikes, while Turkey’s central bank is likely to deliver a dramatic 300‑basis‑point increase to 40% as inflation hovers above 30%.

Domestic economic indicators reinforce the mixed picture. US retail sales data reveal strong core card‑spending growth, offset by a surge in fuel purchases, suggesting underlying consumer resilience but also highlighting income‑distribution effects. China’s trade balance narrowed sharply, with exports up only 2.5% year‑over‑year while imports jumped 27.8%, reflecting the impact of higher commodity costs and a slowdown in external demand. In the United States, the Producer Price Index rose modestly, with energy components driving much of the increase, underscoring how Middle‑East tensions continue to feed through to inflation metrics. Together, these data points signal that policymakers will need to balance short‑term price shocks against longer‑term growth objectives.