Poland’s Economy Expanded by 4%YoY in the Final Quarter of 2025
•February 13, 2026
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Why It Matters
The strong Q4 performance signals resilient domestic demand and sets a positive tone for Poland’s 2026 growth outlook, highlighting the pivotal role of public spending amid private investment weakness.
Key Takeaways
- •Q4 2025 GDP grew 4% YoY, accelerating Q/Q growth.
- •Private consumption up over 4% YoY, driving growth.
- •Public consumption near 7% YoY; investment slowed to 4%.
- •Exports neutral, inventories slightly negative; overall balance modest.
- •2026 growth forecast 3.7% with public‑led investment boost.
Pulse Analysis
Poland’s fourth‑quarter 2025 GDP surge reflects a broader recovery that has been underpinned by falling inflation and rising real disposable incomes. As price pressures eased faster than expected, households reclaimed purchasing power, fueling a private‑consumption jump of more than four percent year‑on‑year. This consumer‑led momentum contrasts with the muted private‑sector investment, which slipped to around four percent, indicating that firms remain cautious despite improving demand conditions.
The public sector has become the engine of growth, with government consumption climbing close to seven percent YoY and large‑scale infrastructure projects under the National Recovery Plan (KPO) sustaining investment flows. While public spending offsets private shortfalls, the composition of investment remains skewed toward state‑financed initiatives, leaving the private sector’s capital plans fragile. Analysts note that without a revival in private‑sector confidence, the economy’s growth quality could hinge on continued fiscal stimulus.
Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook is cautiously optimistic. Forecasts peg overall GDP expansion at 3.7%, buoyed by expected gains in exports and industrial production as key Eurozone markets recover. A stronger export performance, coupled with the completion of KPO projects, should reinforce the investment pipeline. However, sustaining consumption above the three‑percent threshold will likely require a further decline in household savings rates, as real income growth moderates. Policymakers will need to balance fiscal support with measures that stimulate private investment to ensure a more diversified and resilient growth trajectory.
Poland’s economy expanded by 4%YoY in the final quarter of 2025
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A preliminary estimate from Statistics Poland indicates that in the final quarter of 2025, GDP grew by 4.0% YoY, following an increase of 3.8% YoY in the third quarter. Seasonally adjusted data shows that quarterly growth accelerated to 1.0% from 0.9% QoQ in the previous quarter.
The full 4Q25 GDP report, including growth composition, will be released on 2 March. However, taking into account the previously published figures for the first three quarters and the annual GDP estimate with its structure, we can approximate which components drove growth in 4Q25.
On the expenditure side, the main driver of growth was private consumption, which increased by more than 4% YoY, following a 3.5% YoY increase in 3Q25. Although the household savings rate had been rising in recent quarters, inflation fell faster than expected, enabling a solid increase in real disposable income and supporting consumption.
Public consumption continued to grow at a pace close to 7% YoY (7.4% YoY in 3Q25). Investment growth, however, was somewhat disappointing; our estimates put it at around 4% YoY, down from 7.1% YoY in 3Q25. Moreover, the recent growth in investment has been driven mainly by the public sector, while private sector investment activity remains subdued.
Completing the picture is a small negative contribution from changes in inventories and an almost neutral impact of net exports on the annual GDP growth rate.
A strong end to 2025 bodes well for the economic outlook in 2026. We forecast that economic growth will reach 3.7% this year, with some upside potential. We expect consumption to continue growing at a solid pace, although maintaining growth above 3% in this category will require a decline in the savings rate to offset the slower pace of real income growth.
In 2026, we anticipate robust investment growth, driven mainly by public sector projects – among them those financed under the National Recovery Plan (KPO), the implementation of which should be completed this year. However, private sector investment plans still appear weak.
This year we can also expect a higher rate of growth in exports and industrial production than in 2025, supported by a gradual recovery in the main export markets.
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