Trump, Netanyahu Back Plan for US Pressure on Iran to Cut Oil Sales to China, Agree to Go ‘Full Force’ — Report

Why It Matters

Reducing Iran’s oil flow to China could cripple its financing for nuclear development, reshaping regional power dynamics. The move also threatens global oil prices and tests the limits of U.S. sanctions enforcement.

Key Takeaways

• Trump, Netanyahu pledge coordinated pressure on Iran's oil sales
• Iran's oil exports to China exceed 80% of total
• Strategy aims to leverage negotiations over Iran's nuclear program
• Potential sanctions could disrupt global oil markets
• U.S. military options remain under consideration

Pulse Analysis

The announcement marks a rare convergence of U.S. and Israeli strategic thinking on Tehran, a partnership that has deepened since the Abraham Accords. Iran’s oil sector is heavily dependent on Chinese buyers, with more than four‑fifths of its crude destined for Chinese refineries or storage hubs. By focusing pressure on this pipeline, Trump and Netanyahu aim to exploit a vulnerability that traditional sanctions have struggled to reach. The plan reflects Washington’s broader calculus of using economic levers to complement, or even replace, kinetic options in a volatile nuclear standoff.

Targeting Iran‑China oil flows would reverberate through global energy markets, where any disruption can trigger price spikes. Analysts estimate that a 10% cut in Iranian exports could shave roughly 200,000 barrels per day from world supply, nudging Brent crude toward the $90‑$100 range. Beijing, which has long shielded Iran from Western sanctions, may retaliate with counter‑sanctions or accelerate its own energy diversification. Meanwhile, European and Asian refiners that rely on Iranian grades could face tighter margins, prompting a scramble for alternative sources.

The strategy is not without peril. A sudden choke‑point on Iranian revenue could push Tehran toward more aggressive posturing, increasing the risk of miscalculation in the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, the U.S. must navigate complex legal frameworks to enforce secondary sanctions on Chinese entities, a process that could strain Washington’s trade relations. If diplomatic channels falter, the pressure campaign could serve as a prelude to limited strikes, underscoring the importance of clear communication with allies and adversaries alike. Ultimately, the success of this approach hinges on coordinated enforcement and a viable path back to nuclear talks.